Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nativewolf]

I've been attending the 2024 NABCEP conference all week and it's batteries batteries batteries

Sounds great what is nabcep?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Sounds great what is nabcep?

North American Board of Certified Energy Practitioners

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Sounds great what is nabcep?

About Us - NABCEP

NABCEP was founded in 2002 as a non-profit 501 (c)(6) corporation with a mission “to support, and work with, the renewable energy and energy efficiency industries, professionals, and stakeholders to develop and implement quality credentialing and certification programs for practitioners."

nabcepdev.wpengine.com

 

[elasalle]

Up 2.5% - not bad
Neuralink trial a success - amazing

This trumps both:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770538870897271230

Sounds like the project is going well but secondly confirms that early usage will be in (probably Tesla only) factories. Prediction; Q2 presentation in July will contain multiple photos of bots doing real jobs.

Doesn’t Tesla have enough internal manufacturing use cases for now

 

[nativewolf]

So renewable energy folks that are now talking storage. Very good. Battery capacity really comes online in the next 2 years, storage should drop.

 

[Mengy]

If it were ready now, and they're just now posting a job for the guy who will lead the team determining the what/where/how of using it for trials, then that's horrible planning by Tesla.


More likely they're hiring that guy because they expect to BE ready later this year after he's had a while to actually be hired and get all the background learning, coordination and planning in place to actually start factory trials in a useful and non-disruptive manner.

I don't think anyone ever doubted first usage would be in tesla factories though, like 98% sure Elon explicitly told us that already? Probably more than once?

True, but I'd say this job posting is a good indicator Optimus will be deployed into Tesla factories this year. Probably not for a few months yet at the earliest, but this likely means they are fairly close to ready.

 

[Knightshade]

True, but I'd say this job posting is a good indicator Optimus will be deployed into Tesla factories this year. Probably not for a few months yet at the earliest, but this likely means they are fairly close to ready.

Oh, agreed, I don't think you hire that guy if you haven't got a reasonable idea on a target at least... but I think the order of operations is probably something like:

Hire the guy

Get him up to speed on current capabilities, planned roadmap timing of future capabilities, introduce him to leads of other development groups and see where they're all at-- and similar with the leaders of the factory floor sections

Guy then works with those groups to define the first few tasks they want to trial the robot attempting to do, based not just on where development is at that point but what tasks are reasonable to initial-test in the factory without disrupting production--- this is way more than just "see if it can put these screws in" it's detailed requirements from the factory folks to the testing team, detailed test plans from the testing team, methods to measure and produce metrics from the testing, methods to feedback to the appropriate teams when issues are found, ways to cycle in updates to both the bot, measurements, metrics, and tasks, etc...

Remaining development and training happens as needed to get the robot able to attempt one or more of those specific jobs based on the work in step above

Test those things in a lab to see if basic requirements are there- feedback and refine as needed to meet minimum standards for the tasks.

Coordinate scheduling to actually start those attempts in the factory

THEN start factory floor testing.


I think that takes more than just a few months- especially since only 2-3 months ago they were still hiring design guys for major parts of the bot itself, still hiring learning programmers, and still hiring the guy to build the prototype production line (we discussed that at the time in here).


It's still a significant vote of confidence they're hiring this guy--- I just think folks expecting to see the bot building cars by summer are... Optimists

 

[geometro]

Well… this should be front page news…

Angela Chao's blood alcohol content nearly 3x legal limit before her fatal drive into pond

Toxicology report shows Angela Chao, sister-in-law of Sen. Mitch McConnell, was drunk when she backed her Tesla into a pond and drowned.

www.usatoday.com

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Well… this should be front page news…

Angela Chao's blood alcohol content nearly 3x legal limit before her fatal drive into pond

Toxicology report shows Angela Chao, sister-in-law of Sen. Mitch McConnell, was drunk when she backed her Tesla into a pond and drowned.

www.usatoday.com

Headline: "Tesla vehicles are no longer the safest vehicles on the roads, real life example proves they are unsafe and prone to sinking"

 

[Musskiah]

Oh, agreed, I don't think you hire that guy if you haven't got a reasonable idea on a target at least... but I think the order of operations is probably something like:

Hire the guy

Get him up to speed on current capabilities, planned roadmap timing of future capabilities, introduce him to leads of other development groups and see where they're all at-- and similar with the leaders of the factory floor sections

Guy then works with those groups to define the first few tasks they want to trial the robot attempting to do, based not just on where development is at that point but what tasks are reasonable to initial-test in the factory without disrupting production--- this is way more than just "see if it can put these screws in" it's detailed requirements from the factory folks to the testing team, detailed test plans from the testing team, methods to measure and produce metrics from the testing, methods to feedback to the appropriate teams when issues are found, ways to cycle in updates to both the bot, measurements, metrics, and tasks, etc...

Remaining development and training happens as needed to get the robot able to attempt one or more of those specific jobs based on the work in step above

Test those things in a lab to see if basic requirements are there- feedback and refine as needed to meet minimum standards for the tasks.

Coordinate scheduling to actually start those attempts in the factory

THEN start factory floor testing.


I think that takes more than just a few months- especially since only 2-3 months ago they were still hiring design guys for major parts of the bot itself, still hiring learning programmers, and still hiring the guy to build the prototype production line (we discussed that at the time in here).


It's still a significant vote of confidence they're hiring this guy--- I just think folks expecting to see the bot building cars by summer are... Optimists

Optimusks rather

 

[Carl Raymond]

Decide how many minutes you have. Start playing that many minutes from the end. Sasha is on fire here. Topic: FSD

(Saw this video posted to this thread earlier, sorry, couldn’t locate it to link locally)

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Decide how many minutes you have. Start playing that many minutes from the end. Sasha is on fire here. Topic: FSD

(Saw this video posted to this thread earlier, sorry, couldn’t locate it to link locally)

Saw this earlier today, he thinks like us here....LONG TERM and knows Tesla is actually winning today and will still be winning for the next decade.

 

[Mengy]

Decide how many minutes you have. Start playing that many minutes from the end. Sasha is on fire here. Topic: FSD

(Saw this video posted to this thread earlier, sorry, couldn’t locate it to link locally)

Yeah that was a great vid by Sasha. I particularly liked his digs at Meet Kevin and the other "drama queen" TSLA investors, they were very on point.

 

[snellenr]

And what problems, and how numerous, requiring a 2 hr trip to service?

Not the OP, but my 3-1/2 hr (one-way) trips were to fix (1) a 2014 S with the "black screen" memory issue, (2) upgrading the 2014's original TPMS system to the post-2015 Continental hardware, and (3) a 2022 S that "toasted" its CPU before Tesla figured out the CPU needed cooling even during preconditioning. I've been told that Rangers can't perform any service that requires opening a coolant line - the TPMS upgrade was very complex.

When I bought the 2014, I lived 5 miles from a service center and having to replace two drive units was just an inconvenience. Not so much any more, to the extent that I'd suggest anyone who's a significant distance from a Service Center buy a used car to (possibly) reduce the risk of running into an "infant mortality" problem with the car.

 

[snellenr]

I can trump that. I live in Liverpool and there are 4 service centres within a 1 hour drive from my house. Soz

Nearly 60 years later, y'all are still doing "The Four Yorkshiremen" sketch...

 

[Krugerrand]

You're obviously the exception so in the larger picture your situation isn't particularly pertinent. A question was raised earlier in this thread wondering why so many people were still buying certain gas cars? The Civic for instance. The lack of service centers is a barrier to ownership for many many people. Hard to argue that.

Service what? No oil changes, no starter motor, no tune ups, no radiator, no water pump, no fuel filter changes etc…. I’ve got 110,000 miles on my 3 and my brake pads are like new, so not even a brake job required.

People think they need a service center down the block. Not that a Tesla has never had to be towed, but you know the point I’m making.

The biggest exception from me is that I’m not expecting the worse case scenario to happen with a car meant to have significantly less service requirements, and that I’m willing to simply deal with what may happen if it happens. It’s like people who keep thinking they need 500 miles of range and be able to charge fully in 5 minutes to have an EV be able to work for them and all the other reasons they come up with.

 

[Quesder]

Do you think TSLA SP will rebound to $190 this time, and hold strongly even after the delivery number is out after April 3rd?

 

[jschwefel]

Service what? No oil changes, no starter motor, no tune ups, no radiator, no water pump, no fuel filter changes etc…. I’ve got 110,000 miles on my 3 and my brake pads are like new, so not even a brake job required.

People think they need a service center down the block. Not that a Tesla has never had to be towed, but you know the point I’m making.

The biggest exception from me is that I’m not expecting the worse case scenario to happen with a car meant to have significantly less service requirements, and that I’m willing to simply deal with what may happen if it happens. It’s like people who keep thinking they need 500 miles of range and be able to charge fully in 5 minutes to have an EV be able to work for them and all the other reasons they come up with.

Bingo!! One hundred years of driving fossil-fueled vehicles have conditioned people to think this way. Electric vehicles are better; they’re safer; they have fewer moving parts; they’re way more efficient; they don’t require regular maintenance, and frankly… they’re more fun to drive.

I’m convinced the base Model Y is an INCREDIBLE deal and would meet or exceed the needs and expectations of most people in the market for a regular SUV. Tesla and this community need to educate and inform people about it.

 

[cliff harris]

Do you think TSLA SP will rebound to $190 this time, and hold strongly even after the delivery number is out after April 3rd?

The stock is impossible to predict. However, progress on optimus, huge progress on FSD, and the upcoming juniper model Y update means anything could happen. I wouldnt be surprised if the stock stays below $200 for the rest of the year, but I wouldnt be surprised if it hits $400 either. True, universal FSD that totally destroys cruise and waymo and makes Tesla's the only car worth buying would be rocket fuel for the stock, regardless of this years production or deliveries.
We are now talking about significant FSD progress in terms of weeks, and its only March. Good times.
Plus model 2 likely revealed this year. This is an amazing time to hold the stock, even if the cybertruck and semi didn't exist, and they do. Add the bot and its just insane.

 

[nativewolf]

Nearly 60 years later, y'all are still doing "The Four Yorkshiremen" sketch...

60 years later is nothing. My father made us practice the 12 Yorkshiremen sketch 80 years ago in the snow before breakfast. We had to go get our cousins because there were only 10 of us living in that 2 room house and oh man...let me tell you how hard it was getting snow.