dedicatedtek
Member
I've got a spot for one.
(If they would only say my reservation is ready)
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
(If they would only say my reservation is ready)
larmor
Active Member
It should be 20% lower since the current price manipulation err movement is based solely on lower volumes, 1 week new years vacation in China, and MSM constant headline of lower EV demand.
Q1 deliveries will likely come in much lower than that. In the short term the stock will probably drop after Q1 ER, long term it's just a bump in the road to the moon and beyond. One low quarter won't matter at all several years from now.
Carl Raymond
Active Member
Saw this yesterday from Cern Basher and I think it’s a big deal that almost nobody’s talking about.
FSD 12.3 is exciting, but more exciting is the rate of improvement. This rate of dev on the end-to-end model was completely unknown to outsiders until last weekend. Now we’re being told about fortnightly updates, each addressing 3 significant issues.
Within weeks the timeline to driverless is likely to firm up. As interventions go down, the value jump Cern discusses gets nearer. The assessment every car buyer *should* make is: does this value jump occur within the lifespan of my new car? If the answer is yes, her buying choices are 3,Y,X,S,Cyber.
Even if other brands license FSD, it will be several years before compatible models arrive. There’s far more to an FSD car than first glance. Start with seamless OTA and the fully software defined car, for example.
Tesla still need to deliver noticeable improvement with the next three updates. If they do, they suppress the entire non-Tesla (mostly ICE) car market, no?
There’s maths to consider here too. Many will say that only a small number of buyers are as vigilant as our hypothetical buyer above. But it doesn’t matter. Even if only one buyer in one hundred is FSD progress aware, that’s still a huge number of *additional* buyers, enough to move margins and queue up sales.
FSD 12.3 is exciting, but more exciting is the rate of improvement. This rate of dev on the end-to-end model was completely unknown to outsiders until last weekend. Now we’re being told about fortnightly updates, each addressing 3 significant issues.
Within weeks the timeline to driverless is likely to firm up. As interventions go down, the value jump Cern discusses gets nearer. The assessment every car buyer *should* make is: does this value jump occur within the lifespan of my new car? If the answer is yes, her buying choices are 3,Y,X,S,Cyber.
Even if other brands license FSD, it will be several years before compatible models arrive. There’s far more to an FSD car than first glance. Start with seamless OTA and the fully software defined car, for example.
Tesla still need to deliver noticeable improvement with the next three updates. If they do, they suppress the entire non-Tesla (mostly ICE) car market, no?
There’s maths to consider here too. Many will say that only a small number of buyers are as vigilant as our hypothetical buyer above. But it doesn’t matter. Even if only one buyer in one hundred is FSD progress aware, that’s still a huge number of *additional* buyers, enough to move margins and queue up sales.
Speaking of a disruptive change at a Musk company.
The linked video shows a neuralinked human being:
The linked video shows a neuralinked human being:
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
It's always weird to me just how different Tesla service is from place to place, given unlike independent dealers they should all in theory be owned by the same company and all follow the same policies.
For example usually Tesla doesn't do air filters free but they are for you for some reason....(they charged me about $70 total parts and labor, and still under the 4/50 warranty while you're well past it). and the trunk harness seems to be a coin flip on if they'll do it mobile or make you come into a service center.
I've got an appointment in a couple weeks for the trunk harness.... they're making me come to the service center (and likely making me sit there and wait)-- despite the fact obviously they do this via ranger elsewhere... and I've had other services done in this area via ranger so it's not like they don't have rangers here.
This is making a really weird leap here--- they're assuming that 1 person in 100 who is paying close attention to FSD progress wasn't already a likely Tesla buyer and is now somehow an "additional" buyer and that doesn't seem terribly likely.
Anybody I've met who follows FSD closely either already owns a Tesla, or has a fair intent to buy one in the future. It's not like there's some guy who is a die hard Chrysler fan but ALSO follows FSD really closely, and will suddenly flip brand loyalty once it makes Chucks turn reliably.
The big demand lever is when there's FSD news that gets beyond folks following FSD progress on a regular basis. Say when Tesla announces >L2 for example- that'd be all over the news and reach those actual "additional" folks.
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Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Up 2.5% - not bad
Neuralink trial a success - amazing
This trumps both:
Sounds like the project is going well but secondly confirms that early usage will be in (probably Tesla only) factories. Prediction; Q2 presentation in July will contain multiple photos of bots doing real jobs.
Neuralink trial a success - amazing
This trumps both:
Sounds like the project is going well but secondly confirms that early usage will be in (probably Tesla only) factories. Prediction; Q2 presentation in July will contain multiple photos of bots doing real jobs.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
If it were ready now, and they're just now posting a job for the guy who will lead the team determining the what/where/how of using it for trials, then that's horrible planning by Tesla.
More likely they're hiring that guy because they expect to BE ready later this year after he's had a while to actually be hired and get all the background learning, coordination and planning in place to actually start factory trials in a useful and non-disruptive manner.
I don't think anyone ever doubted first usage would be in tesla factories though, like 98% sure Elon explicitly told us that already? Probably more than once?
As an FSD owner since 2019, I have thought about this.
Any robotaxi network is, for a variety of reasons, about 5 years from the date that FSD is fully capable.
The first immediate value is take rate in the existing fleet.
The next immediate value is people in the same family, schedules permitting, can share the same car as long as its a Tesla.
The third immediate value is other manufactures scrambling (boy is it going to be a scramble) to get their own cars reconfigured to license FSD software and hardware from Tesla. Sort of like caving to the Tesla supercharger network. The will have zero ability to "copy" FSD I would think.
I can't imagine any significant number of existing owners are going to have their cars used as taxis.
Tesla doesn't have a million more cars to make each year to keep for itself.
But when those five years run, FSD becomes unbelievably valuable. I really think there will be so many buying opportunities along the way in hindsight it will be hard to believe.
Might have to if $TSLA doesn't pop
and dump them in the 
...
Carl Raymond
Active Member
5 years is incredibly pessimistic on a two week update cadence that addresses three items per update. An item might be adding reverse, escape from any cul-de-sac, or it might be something cosmetic on the display. Let’s review in a month to assess their def of “significant”.
The value jump occurs whether car is network deployed or not. It’s merely what somebody else will pay for it. Robotaxi fleet operators will know exactly how high they can bid. They will want your car.
Getting from 2M to 3M cars per year. That’s Tesla’s forte. Easier of course without science illiterate terrorists attacking your power lines.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Add: Tesla will only allow FSD use by other manufacturers on full BEVs. No ICE, no hybrids. Accelerating the transition...
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
I was writing in another forum about how renewable energy is growing at a furious pace, and came across this chart.
Anyone who looks at how solar, wind, and batteries make up 95% of U.S. planned utility-scale projects for 2024 and doesn't get on the Tesla Energy train simply isn't paying attention.
Source: Solar and battery storage to make up 81% of new U.S. electric-generating capacity in 2024 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Anyone who looks at how solar, wind, and batteries make up 95% of U.S. planned utility-scale projects for 2024 and doesn't get on the Tesla Energy train simply isn't paying attention.
Source: Solar and battery storage to make up 81% of new U.S. electric-generating capacity in 2024 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Drop from where are now or where we’ll be at the Q1 ER?
Ok I’ll bite, I say we won’t drop below where we are now after the Q1 ER—try as the shorts might.
You want to know how I know?
I’ve sold all the remaining shares I needed to for my CT during this bear raid.* So the SP can go back up. You’re welcome all.
*among other reasons
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This is not helpful. It’s not his car, he’s waiting for his trimotor to be delivered. Show some respect for MKBHD
AnbaricBike
Member
I've been attending the 2024 NABCEP conference all week and it's batteries batteries batteriesI was writing in another forum about how renewable energy is growing at a furious pace, and came across this chart.
Anyone who looks at how solar, wind, and batteries make up 95% of U.S. planned utility-scale projects for 2024 and doesn't get on the Tesla Energy train simply isn't paying attention.
Source: Solar and battery storage to make up 81% of new U.S. electric-generating capacity in 2024 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
I've said it once and ill say it again "Not all heroes wear capes", thank you for your sacrifice.
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