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next week is SMCI earnings

The article says that it was using Autopilot not FSD

100k was the challenge as I recall

I think it is telling as an example of how we are still far away from solved, in that conversely to adiggs, I find the Auto Max Speed setting to be particularly terrible. It tends to go too slow at times, and then way too fast (like 10+ mph over the limit) at other times, often on the same...

I'll say it again, the wonderful experiences that we have with FSD v12 and actual solved FSD for robotaxi are separated by a vast chasm.

I understand what it means but I don't really see why it would be a necessity. The cost to pay a person minimum wage to man a robotaxi supercharger site to plug and unplug them has to be relatively low.

Why would they all need to be inductive?

Let's not be too dramatic. I live in a very liberal bubble, and people are still buying and like Teslas regardless of how they feel about Elon. I'm certainly not saying it doesn't have an impact, but "completely toxic and a total non-starter for half of Americans" is way over the top if you...

Count me in the corner of folks who think people are being overly optimistic about FSD. I would absolutely love to be proved wrong though. There are currently just way too many things that it still can't handle, or brazen mistakes it makes for me to feel too optimistic about it in any way...

I've gone on a few test drives with 12.3 and like most have been suitably impressed with the improvements, and annoyed with the auto speed. The only disengagement I've had so far is an important one though, where it tried to make a left on a red light. It's a weird intersection where the...

Since we are nitpicking, most traffic light sensors in the road are inductive loops not weight sensors

No, I welcomed the opportunity to sell some calls. Still very bullish long term though.

It is a short week, only 4 trading days, so premiums are going to be a day lower as well.

Cramer says the bottom is in for TSLA so probably should go all in buying puts.

Quant Data

I've just been ensuring that I don't keep them open overnight. MSTR I wouldn't even keep open at 2 DTE

At least for the US, it's a threat to bring orders forward to Q1

Let's see how the market reacts to likely a big miss on P&D

Friday, I already closed for 75% gain

I sold -1500c for $6, felt good.

As I understand it highway is still V11

Using neural nets means progress will be unpredictable, with potential for large leaps in capabilities in certain scenarios as well as regressions in others, but with enough quality training data it should trend to the positive and possibly quickly. Neural nets are a black box so you can’t...

On this quad witching day, max pain is 172.5. It will be interesting to see where we end up.

It's interesting though because it's not pure BTC proxy as it will also sometimes move with the market if BTC isn't moving much. I will say that I've not held any positions overnight due to the extreme movement off hours because BTC is traded 24/7

Yes I've been trading it for a couple weeks, it's been great

I'm curious, these are honest questions as I don't know much about high volume option trading... 1. Why would that be illegal if they are actually being bought and sold, not spoofed or whatnot? 2. How is it not trying to making money to buy a bunch of puts and then sell them later when the stock...

Just go to spacex.com! It will take you where you need to go. It's funny in this day and age that people go straight to youtube or wherever instead of the actual source first.

That intersection is more complicated with how the lights and crosswalks are timed because of the fact that it is a T intersection so all cars are forced to turn into the pedestrians crossing, plus there are a zillion pedestrians there. In any case, the pedestrians weren't jaywalking, at worst...

No, at that point it was flashing don't walk, at which point pedestrians are not allowed to enter the crosswalk. But also like I said, literally everyone does it. From a pedestrian point of view, as long as you make it across before the countdown hits zero you are golden. The big time right...

Yes, I'm sure their intent was obvious and the walk countdown was still in progress. The car should not have advanced. It doesn't really matter if a pedestrian should not start crossing when the don't walk is flashing. 99% of pedestrians do anyway.

short puts you mean :)

Yeah I think later there's a disengagement at 27:18 turning on to State from Liberty which is far worse.

That area is part of the University of Michigan campus, and often the students will just blindly walk out into the street anywhere without regard, either on phones or just not paying attention. More driving around that area would be be edifying about how it interacts with pedestrians that...

it's only wednesday, and max pain also changes, but it certainly might not!

it signals a bottom

I'd be interested in trying this

It's very human like, but where I first clicked into the video it stopped where it looked like it was partially blocking an intersection and then ran a red light, followed by stopping at a red light while straddling the double yellow. Very human like. Not sure that's good though? Honest...

1. Because there are a lot more edge cases than you may be appreciating. It only takes one significant failure to ruin everything. 2. 20 min is nothing 2. Historically based on my own observations with what I see in videos vs my experience with FSD, videos tend to not show the bad stuff...

Definitely getting better, but... 1. Still *very* far from robotaxi use. 2. Soon entering the most dangerous realm where it is good enough that people will stop paying attention (and attention monitoring is currently very sub-par) I've only ever found FSD to be pretty unusable in any realistic...

I think your definition of dropping like a stone is different than mine. But regardless this week seems dangerous to me for SMCI due to S&P inclusion this friday, so while I made some trades early on this week, I got out yesterday and am leaving it alone and will revisit it next week

Assuming you mean 6 delta, not true!

My guess is 185

I guess the question is why did you let the 1 in 25 clean you out entirely?

It very much depends. Having no extrinsic remaining makes rolling cheaper and more effective from my experience. But it also depends how near the money you are. The primary issue with risk management for most people (including myself) in my opinion is a strong aversion to taking losses. You...

What service do you use to get your gex and vex charts for future dates?

@Yoona Sorry to bother you with a question that I'm sure you have answered a million times, but what service do you use to get your gamma/vanna charts? I'd PM you privately to ask but I cannot view your profile. Thanks!

I intentionally did not use the word driving in those statements. I said maneuvering or controlling, so neither the definition of driving, nor SAE levels are relevant. And thanks for the info about Waymo and lack of need for HD Maps. I was unaware, and just trying to reframe the points made...

Perhaps unlike most people here I really appreciate Knightshade's attention to technical correctness, but I think in this argument there is a lot of talking past each other. Knightshade is making a absolutely technically correct argument as it pertains to the definition of driving by autonomous...

You also own the shares, which change in value as well. The important part would be to sell the shares and reopen the contract at the same time (though if you feel good about a direction, you can wait in between and win/lose depending on if you are right)

There must have been some extrinsic on those, pretty nice for you