Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[DarkKnight83]

My gut tells me that since many/most are expecting the floor to fall out of TSLA again and fall even deeper on the Q1 P&D or Earnings Call --and for the 5th time in the recent past-- it could be it won't and all the ugly news is already "priced in."

A counter-argument may be that the P/E is still way too high with all the new realities and needs more compression still, so $140-$125 is not really out of the question.

Clear as mud, I know

Practically speaking comes down to do we short into any DCB or not, and at what point do we cut all long delta?

P&D and Earnings expectations are still way too high. These revisions will only happen in the comming weeks.
TSLA is trading at over 100 forward PE now.

But lot of whales got in at 105. They will put up a fight and change the narative to save the stock.

 

[Jim Holder]

P&D and Earnings expectations are still way too high. These revisions will only happen in the comming weeks.
TSLA is trading at over 100 forward PE now.

But lot of whales got in at 105. They will put up a fight and change the narrative to save the stock.

 

[BornToFly]

Definitely getting better, but...

1. Still *very* far from robotaxi use.
2. Soon entering the most dangerous realm where it is good enough that people will stop paying attention (and attention monitoring is currently very sub-par)

I've only ever found FSD to be pretty unusable in any realistic way, but I'm cautiously optimistic about v12. I look forward to trying it out.

Why do you say that? They put in multiple pins and it drove itself to each pin and parked/stopped to "let people out." Putting in new pin started automatic drive to next pin. It literally did Robotaxi in NewYork for 20 minutes, to multiple destinations, without a single intervention. AND this is early V12. Lots of code-free training happening now.

Will stop now since a little OT, but pointing out that TSLA is very undervalued right now if you look into the future AT ALL.

 

[Yoona]

bull flag: today's Low is exactly 1.272% fib, next supp 163.21

broken, next supp 163.21

 

[stealthyc]

Why do you say that? They put in multiple pins and it drove itself to each pin and parked/stopped to "let people out." Putting in new pin started automatic drive to next pin. It literally did Robotaxi in NewYork for 20 minutes, to multiple destinations, without a single intervention. AND this is early V12. Lots of code-free training happening now.

Will stop now since a little OT, but pointing out that TSLA is very undervalued right now if you look into the future AT ALL.

1. Because there are a lot more edge cases than you may be appreciating. It only takes one significant failure to ruin everything.
2. 20 min is nothing
2. Historically based on my own observations with what I see in videos vs my experience with FSD, videos tend to not show the bad stuff anywhere near as much as reality.

 

[Jim Holder]

broken, next supp 163.21
View attachment 1027454

Would you buy puts here for the $10 drop or it's not sure enough?

 

[Discoducky]

1. Because there are a lot more edge cases than you may be appreciating. It only takes one significant failure to ruin everything.
2. 20 min is nothing
2. Historically based on my own observations with what I see in videos vs my experience with FSD, videos tend to not show the bad stuff anywhere near as much as reality.

happy to continue the conversation in the V12 thread here and I've added my thoughts from the video: FSD V12 (end to end AI)

 

[thenewguy1979]

@Yoona is there an update to the NVDA charts (VANNA) for Friday - look like a pump or a dump this Friday?

 

[Max Plaid]

All we need is Max to drop his wallet and buy those 10k shares he kept talking about and we rocket back up. Look like he’s joining the 16x TivoBoy’s gang now

I'm waiting for low 100's to buy shares...

 

[Max Plaid]

Me, too. For me, @Yoona, @dl003 and @MaxPlaid are at least 50% of the value of the forum.

Too many others + and - to mention, no offense

DL with his detailed analysis, Yoona for her rigorous backtesting and almost-failsafe system, and me for "the feeling in my balls"

 

[Yoona]

Would you buy puts here for the $10 drop or it's not sure enough?

decided not to buy at 160 or at any price

 

[Cherry Wine]

decided not to buy at 160 or at any price

Shares, or puts?

 

[Yoona]

@Yoona is there an update to the NVDA charts (VANNA) for Friday - look like a pump or a dump this Friday?

850-1000, if dealers can have their way again

i'm at 825-1050

 

[thenewguy1979]

I'm waiting for low 100's to buy shares...

Positive sentiments for TSLA been dropping quite fast lately.

Just last week folks were talking about buying in the 170s, this week the 160s, now no-one want to touch it till low 100's

No wonder we dropping.

That's good dog sell Call then at 180 this week.

 

[Jim Holder]

decided not to buy at 160 or at any price

Was asking about your thoughts on buying puts here for the next drop to $160’s. Can help create some gains during the pain.

 

[Max Plaid]

Agree.

Perhaps word of "settlement" talks in the comp case, or better 2nd half of March sales numbers the next two weeks.

In the "other" thread there was a time-line of potential appeal on the comp case and I think it was likely to be about 12 months from now before we'd get any verdict on that, so don't expect anything too soon. @Artful Dodger might have posted that, certainly he did a few very good posts about it, including a very creditable conspiracy-theory that McCormick is basically showboating ahead of a political campaign (Senate, was it, can't recall...)

I suppose the positive is that the longer it drags-out, the less likely EM is to dump shares on the open market...

 

[Jim Holder]

This is good for a $0.30 cent pop

https://twitter.com/x/status/1767960916799184949

 

[Max Plaid]

Positive sentiments for TSLA been dropping quite fast lately.

Just last week folks were talking about buying in the 170s, this week the 160s, now no-one want to touch it till low 100's

No wonder we dropping.

That's good dog sell Call then at 180 this week.

We will see

As I said recently, the dump to $100 end of 2022 was pure manipulation and not called for, a dump to $100 now I would think is pretty justified given Tesla's atrocious handling of expectations

I only sold 2200 shares this week, I want to buy 10000, but if it does drop to $100 before July then I have 100w +p150's to pay for half of them for "free", too good to be missed if it were to happen!

We will see

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

PE is 40. Even if you only gave the Auto business 10, that means you would be giving a PE of 30 to a world leader in AI, robotics, self driving, EV charging refueling (nobody can make charges for the cost/reliability), and world wide energy storage as solar and wind continue to have massive growth. If this was a new company with those quality at IPO it would have a much higher PE than 30, and Tesla has a proven track record. Ridiculous.

Not to be a care bear here but TSLA's PE is really in the 60's if you take out the one time deferred tax allowance from Q4's earnings.

Now I still think a PE in the 60's for what Tesla is doing on the tech is more than fair but TSLA's TTM is artificially more attractive than it really is here.

 

[stealthyc]

i have discord now, thinking $100,000 capital let's grow it to ~$400k in 4 yrs in small steps, ROIC tiny 1% weekly

just a thought

View attachment 1027397

I'd be interested in trying this