Ended up freerolling these up to $182.50 this morning based on some opportunistic trading. Happy with that. Still holding a handful of -c180s as well.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Ended up freerolling these up to $182.50 this morning based on some opportunistic trading. Happy with that. Still holding a handful of -c180s as well.
listen to Cyndi Lauper's most famous song
Girls just want to have fun as Amazon delivery drivers?
Yeah 1-2 months is going to be battle between two narratives - Tesla's auto business growth completely hitting a wall and earnings/margin compression vs FSD progress and/or Energy ramping.After much though on what has been posted here , & also due to China numbers which aren't trending that well ...
I bought some PUT protection .. 3 Jan 26 175 and around 5 Jan 26 100 when SP was @ 171 .. hope to close these after Q1 numbers are out ...
+PUT money from CC funds
Rest will let the Jan 25 CC's bleed ...
V12 needs to show serious fast progress and iteration in the next 2 months or Energy deployment going through a major ramp because Q1 deliveries are coming in weaker than I ever imagined they would at the beginning of this quarter + Cybertruck production being up is actually going to hurt margins/earnings even more until it gets to high enough production to break even. Right now it's in that in between where ramping it will actually hurt margins/earnings, probably until they reach 2k/week.
I'm still positioned to where I think 150's in the cards over the next month or so.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
With NVDA and specifically SMCI those are lots safer. 5DTE+ too nerve wracking with the crazy movements.
Also the feeling of only being in for 2 days is a lot better then the weeklong anticipation.
I'm willing to bet that the market doesn't heavily buy into FSD progress before Q1 deliveries are reported, which might make for quite the lucrative trading opportunity.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
What if we get a surprise rate cut tomorrow? Wouldn't that be a white swan event for the SP to Moon?
That's the scenario I'm still banking on. That we get that drop and gap fill at 146 off of the P/D numbers disappointing.
The bigger question for me is then what happens around earnings because let's be honest, they're not going to be good. But if V12 progress and iteration is speeding up and showing that Level 4 isn't 3-5 years away but more like 1-2 years, then I feel Wall St will give TSLA a lot more credit in valuation for FSD. Part of the reason I feel like any FSD hype or valuation has floundered with Wall St is that we would get an update, would show some progress but then stall for a while, sometimes many months in between updates where only incremental, small progress was made.
If the dynamic flips to where updates are coming out much faster and the progress in each update is significant, then I think TSLA will start to get some premium in its valuation once again.
Rate cut isn't happening but if it did, it wouldn't cause inflation to ignite. For the past 6 months of CPI data, the main culprit that has kept inflation in the 3's is shelter. There's lot of data that shows shelter in CPI is up to 12 months behind real time data.
I've just been ensuring that I don't keep them open overnight. MSTR I wouldn't even keep open at 2 DTE
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
NVDA regained all loses and aiming for Green. That's should re-pump the Market including TSLA.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
That tomorrow for FOMC.
Today it purely AI. Crazy comeback from Black Leather Jacket and Co.
WE, the collective WE are doing more of an objective and granular analysis of potential share price moves for the near term than nearly any analyst. To their credit, they are not trying to predict very near or short term pricing, but rather longer duration - and that’s usually a 12 month target. NEARLY nobody - ahem - can predict exactly what is going to happen TODAY, or tomorrow and there are even few who can predict what actually happened YESTERDAY.
So, analysts thinking that well in 9-12 months the stock COULD be over 200 or 240 or something like that.. they most likely COULD be right.
Just take a look at actual put out there price targets. Like NVDA…about 18 months ago, avg price target on the street wasn’t more than about $300.. nearly EVER SINGLE one of them was wrong.
@Yoona is the site where you get these from this one Quant Option Group - Realtime Option Flow & More or this one Quant Data (or another)?
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