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  1. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    CNBC talking heads in one breath complaining about not having a $25k model yet, and then in the very next breath complaining that ASP went down 2%.
  2. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It seems that quite a few of us are conflating the 4680 battery with the structural pack. I think that might be a mistake. The Plaid S could still have the structural pack along with the older form-factor cells.
  3. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Stolen from Twitter... And we keep being told regulatory credits are illegitimate income. Seems like 2021 will be another strong year.
  4. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’ve found Market Chameleon to be my best source for options IV information. Signing up even for a free account gives you a lot of info. They also have some really nice daily emails, especially with watchlists set up. I should probably give them a chance to see how much better it gets if I...
  5. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1339975507526504450?s=20 Indexers have put in MOC and LOC orders for 130M shares. Does Gary have a way of actually knowing this? Bloomberg terminal, etc...
  6. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I live in Austin, and there are *a lot* of Teslas driving around the city right now. You can buy Teslas when you live in Texas, and there are service centers here. You just have to put the order in on the website rather than at the Tesla showroom. To be clear I think the law will absolutely be...
  7. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I also think the ~200,000 shares worth of $1500 calls were part of the plan by this entity (whale) who was acquiring shares. I don’t think the goal was to make $10,000,000 on the appreciation of the price of the calls, but rather to exercise the calls as a stealth way to add the additional shares.
  8. kalefranz

    Tesla's Warranty Reserve

    @The Accountant Thanks so much for sharing and the time you put into this (and all of your other contributions here). Always so helpful and educational.
  9. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm hopeful that @The Accountant, @FrankSG, and others sharing might have some thoughts to share on this? Also any thoughts on the top comment below the story, specifically
  10. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Good chance July 23 and 24 are held back by MM, and then we finally rip on the next Monday. But a $1,600 covered call might not even hold past this upcoming Monday or Tuesday...
  11. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I only plotted the supercharger growth numbers from a few pages back in my head, so I could be wrong, but growth actually did seem pretty linear... in time. Granted there were also only four data points. Since the primary purpose of the supercharger network is to provide geographical coverage...
  12. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Unfortunately no; I saw it as it was airing live. It was during the last ten minute segment of his Mad Money show on CNBC. My guess is that cnbc.com might have a clip of it up in a couple hours.
  13. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Jim Cramer just discussed high stock prices (TSLA, AMZN, SHOP) and why they don’t split anymore. According to Cramer, big institutional investors don’t want to pay higher per-share trading fees after a split. Says fractional shares are the answer. Have to admit that before all the split...
  14. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Get your popcorn ready... https://twitter.com/arkinvest/status/1278444978054877189?s=21
  15. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Maybe not necessarily for the market as a whole, but from a TSLA perspective, seems extremely bullish.
  16. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Elon changed his twitter avatar to a BURNing rocket...
  17. kalefranz

    Coronavirus

    Directly from Reuters: Exclusive: White House told federal health agency to classify coronavirus deliberations - sources
  18. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    OT: to Mods: If you have influence with the site admins, would you consider adding an “off topic” voting option for posts? That could end up applying some social pressure, especially for newer members unfamiliar with the etiquette here, making your job somewhat easier.
  19. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Do any of the more senior members here have context for when the IV might subside? Or alternately, would we expect IV to remain relatively high (elevated above the ~45% baseline) from now through S&P inclusion? Are MMs already pricing in S&P inclusion into options prices?
  20. kalefranz

    A Method for Automatic Portfolio Rebalancing

    For the non-TSLA asset, what’s the reasoning behind choosing SPYX? Is SPYX the optimal counterpart in the strategy? Or could the strategy be further improved by finding a security that is anti-correlated with TSLA price movements? Perhaps this is where backtesting could really provide some insight.
  21. kalefranz

    Next Gigafactory in Texas?

    Added a bit of a summary in the investor's forum: --- On Gigafactory Texas, here's a decent wrap-up article written from San Antonio's perspective. Apparently San Antonio was widely considered to have ended up as the second choice, behind Nevada. San Antonio's Tesla bid worth more than...
  22. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    On Gigafactory Texas, here's a decent wrap-up article written from San Antonio's perspective. Apparently San Antonio was widely considered to have ended up as the second choice, behind Nevada. San Antonio's Tesla bid worth more than Nevada's, official says This wrap-up article, from the Nevada...
  23. kalefranz

    Next Gigafactory in Texas?

    Best article I found about the Gigafactory 1 competition: San Antonio's Tesla bid worth more than Nevada's, official says
  24. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Is there a place we can follow what Cathie is investing in her personal accounts?
  25. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    All this talk about Fidelity the last two days... I use Fidelity too, and I’m concerned they’re loaning out my Tesla shares to shorts now. I just put sell limit orders on everything, but they’ll only let me go 50% above the last traded price. :mad: Right now that’s $1102, and I have to...
  26. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla chip designers in Austin... Elon Musk on Twitter
  27. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm so unbelievably disturbed by this. Disgusted, almost even sickened. It seems then that there's a "meta" set of rules governing actual stock prices that market makers are allowed to play. And it seems like this could be the exact mechanism underlying max pain theory? (Did max pain become...
  28. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I guess setting my buy limit order at $560 scared the bears off. You’re welcome ;)
  29. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It seemed like manipulations were way down yesterday. Maybe this explains why?
  30. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    With decent volume today and upper BB near $556, I’m hoping to see our afternoon accumulator show back up soon. Guess we’ll know in an hour or so.
  31. kalefranz

    Super Bulls Only

    He’s back in already. 007 on Twitter
  32. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Laura Kolodny :( I guess it's better she's reporting on this than the Model Y acceleration. I'd rather have a bigger pop from the ER.
  33. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Privacy opt-out of data sharing/uploading?
  34. kalefranz

    TSLA Technical Analysis

    007 on Twitter inverted hammer at the top of a 7 week run outside weekly bollinger- scared me So I guess, on the weekly chart, this last week is what an inverted hammer looks like He's got a lot more experience at this than I do, but I'm still ok with my position right now. Got a mix of...
  35. kalefranz

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The second chart even attempts to find a correlation with increases in complaints and Tesla reporting its quarterly results. Ok I think I might see the pattern here too.
  36. kalefranz

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    I'm an engineer, not a finance person, but I've very much enjoyed following along here to learn. In a video Gali just posted, he's projecting a Q1 loss, whereas several models here are projecting Q1 to be profitable. see at at 9:47 Especially significant of course because of impact on S&P500...
  37. kalefranz

    Market politics

    For the current Congress, "How often a member votes in line with Trump's position." Basically a political spectrum proxy. Tracking Congress In The Age Of Trump Elizabeth Warren 11.8% Bernie Sanders 13.1% Cory Booker 13.5% Kamala Harris 15.8% Chuck Schumer 23.6% (for reference only) Amy...
  38. kalefranz

    Supercharger - Slidell, LA

    Confirmed only 4A and 4B working still today. So it’s been at least nine days in this state. The map showing “6 of 8 stalls available” is lying to you, especially when the line for those two stalls is five cars deep.
  39. kalefranz

    What’s the one thing you like the least about your Model 3?

    Slacker. I really dislike it. I’d take Spotify, Apple Music, Google Play Music, pretty much anything else.