about how close to ITM would you want it to be to go ahead and sell the calls do you think?
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Super Bulls Only
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
about how close to ITM would you want it to be to go ahead and sell the calls do you think?
Firstly, this is not advice and I am definitely not an expert. My plan (if I have one) is to buy long term OTM and sell ITM close to expiry (not DITM). I have just traded J20 300s for a range of calls up to 500s. If the SP was above 700 I would probably look at swapping them early.
My strategy is simple:
~90% TSLA calls - no puts/insurance/spreads/margin. Will start moving slowly towards shares at some point well above $1000.
Want to maximise profit from long term calls whilst remaining 90% confident (superbull confidence...) that they will expire ITM. Theta is a killer so I like to minimise.
I nearly got it very wrong with the 300s... Short term calls didn't work for me - my undimmed confidence cannot be tamed. This is all high risk which I can just about tolerate.
Drumheller
Active Member
Would appreciate some opinions / thoughts, please
Up until November, I was about 50% in TSLA for my net worth. I have an old 401k that is gaining value but not a great performer. I've considered moving it for some time but haven't done it. I'm strongly considering rolling it over and then putting it all or nearly all in TSLA. That would put me at about 75% to 80% net worth in TSLA.
I hesitate because of the general advice of not putting everything in one basket. However, I cannot see another company or mixed fund that I think will grow like TSLA over the next 5 to 10 years. I'm 41, employed, and have no debt other than a small mortgage on a condo. I'm generally aggressive in stocks, but risk adverse in the sense that I do not touch options or margin. I do have a funded emergency account as well.
I realize I'm posting this in the Super Bulls thread, but seemed better than starting a thread asking for thoughts and advice regarding a personal investing decision. There are many people here with more experience and knowledge than me, many of which have already made small fortunes in investing, so I value any thoughts people are willing to share.
Thank you!
Up until November, I was about 50% in TSLA for my net worth. I have an old 401k that is gaining value but not a great performer. I've considered moving it for some time but haven't done it. I'm strongly considering rolling it over and then putting it all or nearly all in TSLA. That would put me at about 75% to 80% net worth in TSLA.
I hesitate because of the general advice of not putting everything in one basket. However, I cannot see another company or mixed fund that I think will grow like TSLA over the next 5 to 10 years. I'm 41, employed, and have no debt other than a small mortgage on a condo. I'm generally aggressive in stocks, but risk adverse in the sense that I do not touch options or margin. I do have a funded emergency account as well.
I realize I'm posting this in the Super Bulls thread, but seemed better than starting a thread asking for thoughts and advice regarding a personal investing decision. There are many people here with more experience and knowledge than me, many of which have already made small fortunes in investing, so I value any thoughts people are willing to share.
Thank you!
Runarbt
Active Member
I am a bit uncertain myself at the moment. I am keeping all my main shares, but have sold my calls.. and waiting a few more days/weeks until i decide what to do. (I have 300 shares and free cash for another 100 shares)
Seem like this run have slowd down.. we spent 5 years in 250-350 range.. so we might spend anothe rfew years around 500-550.
I have 3 pretty safe options as I see it:
1) Sell puts - to "bank" a nice profit until 2022. This is the safe choice - $300-350 2022 put should be a safe and although smal profit - aprox 20%?
2) Buy shares.. hope for a slow and steady rise. Worst case - if we are still $500 +/- in 2 years, I will have lost the profit seling puts would have given, but do not think we will be below $500 in 2022. (well, never know)
3) Buy deep itm calls - to leverage some'.. hardly any time-cost so even if we go sideways it wont have cost me any more than buying shares. As long as we don't drop low, this about equals #2 in risk imo, but increase top side
Then there are:
4) In the money calls - time cost will be lost if we move sideway.. larger risk, larger possible gains.
And..
5) I d not dare to buy out of the money calls - not 2022, as I am not certain what will happen short term. Would like an indication of new trend before I buy any such calls. I'd rather wait a few weeks to see where trend materialize itself.
---
Maybe you could use half now, split between options 1 through 3, and then wait with the second half any see what new trend materialize itself?
Last edited:
Big Picture: if TSLA goes up as much as you expect (or hope), does it matter whether you've put 50% or 80% of your net worth in it? If it does go (let's say) 10x from here, is the additional 30% make-or-break? Or is it just more icing on the cake?
On the other hand, if -- unlikely but if -- Elon run over by bus, earthquake at factory, autopilot ruled illegal, VW takes over the EV market, etc. -- what's the difference between losing 50% of your net worth and losing 80% or your net worth?
I love TSLA to death but there's no way I'd put 75% or more in there. 80% of spare cash, definitely. 80% of net worth, not happening.
From the main thread:
Us super bulls should be ashamed of ourselves...I'd like to see more detail in your model. There are a number of (to me) confusing things:
And if they react like this to your model predicting $17,600 in 2028, I wonder how they'd react to my model predicting $58,246 in 2030
- Is "Autonomy" the sale of FSD-like features?
- Is "Fleet Share" the revenue from Tesla Network? Looks like it's calculated as a small % of Autonomy revenue, but it seems way too low.
- I'm also unsure what "Robotaxi" means in your model, because you said you assume they'll make 300k Tesla operated robotaxis per year, but this doesn't seem to match these numbers.
In other news, our spiritual guru, 007 has lost his nerve and sold all his calls.
Any one else confused? My strategy of ~100% long term OTM calls is starting to look mundane.
Any one else confused? My strategy of ~100% long term OTM calls is starting to look mundane.
anthonyj
Stonks
jeewee3000
Active Member
Tesla Shares May Reach $960 in Early 2021, Biggest Bull Says
They haven't met us superbulls!
P.S.: on 007 selling his calls, his loss. See price action today.
They haven't met us superbulls!
P.S.: on 007 selling his calls, his loss. See price action today.
kalefranz
Member
Not a bad week for Super Bulls!
New thread covering Ark's latest projection:
ARK's Tesla’s Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years Report
One to look out for is:
The Golden Goose. 12% likelihood. SP of $22k in 2024.
If you have $100k in TSLA now, you will end up with $3.4m.
One of the benefits of having this kind of crazy forecasted growth is that you can be a little more confident in LEAPS. You can still lose it all though - just 2 bad years is all it takes.
New thread covering Ark's latest projection:
ARK's Tesla’s Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years Report
One to look out for is:
The Golden Goose. 12% likelihood. SP of $22k in 2024.
If you have $100k in TSLA now, you will end up with $3.4m.
One of the benefits of having this kind of crazy forecasted growth is that you can be a little more confident in LEAPS. You can still lose it all though - just 2 bad years is all it takes.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I just had to comment on the last bullet about LEAPs. I had the right thesis, the right strikes, and the wrong timing by 1 week when I bought the Jan '20 LEAPs about 15 months ago. With 15 months of runway, the 500's ended up like $8 in the money, the 600's ended up out of the money, and both were seriously profitable the week after they expired.
With options, you can be right on several levels, and still end up wrong.
Which is only to say - for those thinking options are easy money, do your research and only use money you can live with losing completely.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Only now I've read that ARK post in detail (Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years).
Haven't seen it mentioned that the price targets only consider a variety of scenarios regarding:
A) Autonomy
B) Producing cars (and gross margin and stuff)
C) Producing factories to do (B).
Their price targets therefore DO NOT INCLUDE Tesla Energy.
Price target $44k, anyone?
Okay, I think we have found our defining metric for superbulls. If you believe TSLA will be > $2700 on 21st Feb 2022 you are a superbull (or 'superbly' as auto spell checker prefers me to call us).
Third Row Podcast on Twitter
Dave is a mere bull. I am confident on FSD in these timescales. As I have said before, show me a piece of the FSD puzzle that a neural net can't do better than a human.
However, $2700 does not require FSD.
Dave in his video muddles his discussion with the ARK $22k in 2025 hyperbull (or 'hyperbole' as auto spell checker prefers to call them) possible outcome. We not crazy, we are superblys.
Third Row Podcast on Twitter
However, $2700 does not require FSD.
Dave in his video muddles his discussion with the ARK $22k in 2025 hyperbull (or 'hyperbole' as auto spell checker prefers to call them) possible outcome. We not crazy, we are superblys.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
I don't know which intern controls the third row twitter, but I had to unfollow them. It was crass, immature, and not at all what I was expecting or wanting in my Tesla stalking. :/ I was very surprised considering the make up of third row is such well known Pro-Tesla figures.
jhm
Well-Known Member
jhm
Well-Known Member
Okay, I am not a SuperBull, but merely a humble bull. $2700 looks more like 2024 to me. But timing is not so much an issue for me. Rather the question is how many shares do I want to own by the time the SP hits, say, $2700. Years ago I had a goal of 1000 shares. I worked pretty hard to build that up. After I got there, the stock kept going sideways with one buying op after another, so I kept nibbling away at it buying 5 or 10 shares at a time. I think I'm pretty content with what I've accumulated. But if we see $420, I might have to inhale.
At any rate, I am framing the question as how many shares I want to hold. Trading shares or options for cash is less interesting to me. It's the actual shares that are worth holding not the dollars the can be traded for. That's not to say I am okay with loss of value long term. It is predicated on the view that shares will be worth much more in the future that cash in hand today.
From this perspective I am not at all regretting that I had not cashed in my shares back when the price was over $900. Had I done that I would be stuck with the problem of how to buy them back at lowest cost. I already bought my shares at some pretty low prices. My average basis is $242. So I'm glad I don't have to do that all over again. I know mathematically that I could come out financially ahead with the right set of trades, but I could also come out much worse. Psychologically it is much less stressful just to be contented with what I have accumulated than to angle for a better set of trades. If I do nothing but hold my current shares till they are reliably worth $2700 or more, my wife and I can retire in style. (We also have 401k accounts that we can't really trade in anyway. So there is some coerced diversification.) Why would I want to trade for cash and risk losing my shares?
