Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dutchie]

It hasn't been talked about because that isn't what he said. Feature complete FSD isn't coming in 2-4 months. The re-write with possibly smart reverse summon is what will be coming.

I cann't find the exact quote but according to me he said that all features would be downloaded in two to four months. Whether a driver can use certain or all the features depends on regulatory approval.

Quite a few negative reaction on my posts. Fact is:
- most R&D money from Tesla goes to FSD;
- people who work on it continue to be positive;
- FSD price increase (why, if there is nothing to show for?);
- Elon Musk: a guy who sends people to ISS for pennies to the dollar of how it used to cost to send people there, a guy who is in the process of sending thousands of satellites in low earth orbit for fast internet access in the most remote parts of the world etc.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Tesla hasn't installed any charges that would be able to automatically connect the charging plug with the car port. Neither has there been any mention about such chargers during the last couple of years. Isn't this strange if FSD really was only a few years away? Perhaps someone could ask about this at the shareholder meeting.

Elon did have an epiphany during the model 3 ramp - some tasks were more efficiently handled by humans, such as connecting hoses (not dissimilar to plugging a car).

One human could manage a very large supercharger station.

 

[Buckminster]

The average American driving 12k-15k miles isn't giving up his Ford Escape or Toyota RAV-4 for Robotaxi at $1 per mile. Cathie Wood/ARK is projecting $2.50 per mile.

So this is for a shared vehicle. Not a proper robotaxi which will be the norm in cities at least.

Secondly, I don't see Tesla selling an FSD enabled vehicle for less than $150k. This doesn't make a shared vehicle viable. A lot of Americans (in the short term) could have an older non FSD vehicle for short trips and then summon from the fleet for long haul.

Thirdly, there are benefits to robotaxis beyond the obvious. No parking and being dropped at the front door is a great timesaver.

 

[wooter]

The average American driving 12k-15k miles isn't giving up his Ford Escape or Toyota RAV-4 for Robotaxi at $1 per mile. Cathie Wood/ARK is projecting $2.50 per mile.

I might be mistaken, but not too long ago €2,50/km was the going rate in a taxi cab in Europe. That was with a taxi driver. That is about $4.58/mi.

Tony Seba estimated robotaxis could roll for about $200/month or about $0.18/mi. Tesla themselves estimate $0,18/mile as cost.

 

[MC3OZ]

Tony Seba estimated robotaxis could roll for about $200/month or about $0.18/mi. Tesla themselves estimate $0,18/mile as cost.

Cost depends on the amount of market competition, around $1 or less is my guess, unless Tesla has a monopoly..

No one really knows, because the demand, and the amount of competition are hard to predict in advance.

 

[Mike Smith]

Daimler CEO Faces Disgruntled Investor Grilling Over ‘Lost Year’

Daimler shareholders seem to be less happy than we are:

'Tesla sells about ten times as many electric cars as Daimler, and the German company’s Mercedes-Benz EQC model, released last year, is “too late, too expensive and too boring,” Speich said.'

 

[kanweg]

If people aren’t ditching their cars to switch to cabs at $2.50 per mile (Edit: now) then I don’t see them doing that in the future either. I for one am certainly not going on holiday with a car that would cost me $1 per mile. The trip to the sun and back would be $1500. Hey, let’s check out that town 20 miles from here. Another $40. Call me cheap, but I bet that my fellow countrymen think the same way. And don’t say that we should rent one, because in summertime, there is a load of people who would want to rent at that same time. Car sharing is a perfect solution for a subset of the market.

FSD must be affordable. When I’m old, and you don’t want me on the road because of my deteriorated driving habits, you would be fine with me in an FSD car. I can assure you, with my expected pension funds, I’m not in the market for a 150k car. And if Tesla doesn’t sell an FSD car at a decent price, competitors will. That’s what happens if you don’t fill demand yourself. Which is why VW is smart to come with the ID3, why the MG ZG sells fairly well here (despite the fact that Chinese cars don’t have a good reputation here (yet)) and Elon has to hurry up with model 2.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Pretty much- yeah.

As I say I don't even really blame them for deciding missing all the targets was worth the cost savings and they could "fix" it later.

But now it's later- so probably considering the catch-up costs would be worth doing as regards how the numbers will look going forward for a while.





Well, just underfund in the sense they'd need to catch up on it later.... and since it seems, you, I, and you're sure Tesla, would all agree they need to do that- again there's a cost to it. So that probably factors into future cashflow to at least SOME degree.




Clearly

And I appreciate your much more rational approach of considering the actual words I wrote instead of inventing arguments I never mad and being upset by them.





Well, they also have a factory in Texas to build... and the one in Germany underway... and the one in China expanding... and the eventual expansion of GF Nevada to make roadrunner tech in much larger quantities (or building entire new factories to do so if they start throwing up terafactories)


Using your 300k number on superchargers, Tesla had been saying they wanted to increase their numbers at least 50% year over year all those years they kept missing their targets.

If we go with that notion, and that they're at 18k now... (which was their original 2018 target, finally reached mid-2020)- a 50% bump is 9000 more to build this year

So let's say 300k per 8 stalls and they want 9k stalls, that's still 337.5 million bucks this year.... and it's be significantly more year over year if they stuck to that rate. They probably wouldn't in countries already heavily built out (the US for example)- but they'll need to if they wanna keep expanding to new countries and markets (Eastern europe and India for example)

It's not billions but it's also not nothing.

And it's not building any additional service or delivery centers either-Not sure the cost on that- any estimate you're aware of appreciated...

Also there's cost on expanding to any new countries where they'll need to build all 3 things starting from 0.

And since Elon has said they're looking to keep the business profitable Q over Q going forward- not just cash flow positive but net profit- a few hundred million here and there and eventually you're talking real money


Again none of this is hard- and I don't think any of it will "hold back" the company or anything... but it seems like a non-trivial cost that'll need to be significantly higher in coming years than in previous ones that gets little to no mention.



One area BTW Tesla was very smart is 18 months into the 3 rollout they were able to drastically reduce the
recommended/required maintenance on all their vehicles from what it originally looked like on the S/X in earlier days.

(I'm going with the optimistic view the engineers and data supported that it wasn't needed at all- not the cynical one that they just determined it wasn't needed to make it out of the warranty period )


That alone likely reduced service center workload enough to make delaying keeping service locations up with fleet numbers viable significantly longer than otherwise.

Plus the side benefit of making TCO even more appealing compared to ICE vehicles.







Not really.

I asked a question about the financial impact of Tesla eventually needing to ramp service and charger deployments at a higher rate in the future than they have in the last few years.

A pretty straightforward money/business question that would potentially impact company finances and was curiouis to what degree.

Then some fanboys made up some stuff I never said and attacked the strawman they'd built.

Thankfully at least a few folks read my actual words and were open to rational discussion

I do hear your concerns but they are based on quite a few premises that probably should be tested harder.

1. Missing self imposed roll-out targets: While this is true, it may well be that the targets were wrong in the first place. What we know for certain is that the number of superchargers and the quality/availability of service is not poor enough to reduce demand to the point that it is below the supply constraint. Tesla has recently chosen to reduce new vehicle prices before rapidly expanding service/supercharger centers - who knows if that will continue.
2. Should the growth of service centers & superchargers be linear with fleet growth: No. If any of the following assumptions hold true:
   1. Build quality improves over time
   2. Tesla can improve efficiency of their service centers over time
   3. Supercharger efficiency can improve over time (e.g. idle fees and pay per use)
   4. Current facilities not being used at 100% (likely true in many areas with low fleet density)
   5. Software upgrades can fix fleet problems
3. How many service centers / superchargers do Tesla need: This again is hard to quantify but it is likely to peak at a relatively low level if the robotaxi fleet comes to life, and if not the requirement is still not likely to be linear with fleet growth.
4. If Tesla need to expand rapidly, will the cost break the bank: no. I think you along with plenty of comments already mentioned here go into the details.

So the short answer is that there isn't much to be concerned about.

There is always anecdotal evidence that service is poor, and in an ideal world that wouldn't happen. But we are just not seeing a real world impact that would justify spending big on expansion in this area. Service has always been a touchy subject on this board because of the anecdotal evidence and it leads to endless comments back and forth which lead to no conclusion because of the wide spectrum of outcomes.

@neroden was a highly valued member of this board (up there with FC and Karen IMO) but ultimately he chose service quality as his hill to die on and it cost him dearly in terms of missed profit.

 

[elasalle]

Also not as fast as them themselves keep promising though.

They've missed their target for # of stalls, by many thousands of stalls, every single year since before Model 3 was even being sold (see #s I posted on this earlier)

At current rate (assuming they deployed a similar # in Q2 as they did in Q1) they will have just about FINALLY hit their 2018 goal by midway through 2020.... if they were slowed by the pandemic it'll be at least Q3 2020 before they hit their 2018 goal.


So it's not my expectations they're falling short of. It's their own. By a lot.

There's no excuse at all for that apart from not having been willing to ever spend the $ to meet their own targets.

Not sure if the following were considered.
Introducing V3 Supercharging
V3 Supercharging will ultimately cut the amount of time customers spend charging by an average of 50%, as modeled on our fleet data.

Another factor is the past quarters where Telsa had to go on spending freezes to meet their overall objectives.

So we should not expect linear growth, nothing is set in stone.

Cheers!!

 

[marvinat0rz]

Having been doing it successfully for over ten years I'm considered something of a master in technical analysis. I will share with you a bit of wisdom - when a stock goes up but then doesn't come back down it's an extremely positive indicator. It's a pattern known as a 'rising stock'.

Cool! That's what happens when you are (in principle) able to sell the stock at a profit afterwards, right? Stands to reason that this is something to celebrate. Only problem is, I've been told you may have to pay taxes afterwards.

 

[juanmedina]

Where do you see Sep'21 $2,000s? I only see them going up to $1,880.

TSLA - Tesla Stock Options Prices - Barchart.com

I see them and higher strikes but it might be a glitch

 

[RobStark]

 

[jerry33]

See for yourself

View attachment 561742

It's much harder to create stores and superchargers than it is to increase car production because each location requires individual negotiation, not something where the process can be improved upon.

 

[jerry33]

Sorry for the OT, but can someone recommend the best website to use to follow after hours stock action? Ideally it would be reliable, have no delay, show a list of every trade with volume for each trade, and show level 2 data.

Thanks!

Don't know of any website, but ThinkOrSwim (TDAmeritrade) does this just fine.

 

[jerry33]

for instance, I have had ranger service. Yet I need to take a half day off work so the car could be there.

I've had Rangers come to where I work, no need to take time off.

 

[kalefranz]

So we should not expect linear growth, nothing is set in stone.

I only plotted the supercharger growth numbers from a few pages back in my head, so I could be wrong, but growth actually did seem pretty linear... in time. Granted there were also only four data points.

Since the primary purpose of the supercharger network is to provide geographical coverage for trips far away from home (rather than aspiring to be the gas stations for 100% of the fleet), I think linear-in-time expansion is probably ok.

 

[FrankSG]

I see them and higher strikes but it might be a glitch

View attachment 561940

I can see them in my broker too. I guess the website is simply not up to date.

 

[UkNorthampton]

The average American driving 12k-15k miles isn't giving up his Ford Escape or Toyota RAV-4 for Robotaxi at $1 per mile. Cathie Wood/ARK is projecting $2.50 per mile.

I don't know USA cultures (plural, big place, lots of variety I'm guessing). For Europe/UK, younger people often don't have cars. They borrow parents' / relatives' cars or rent for specific things and then it might be a van rather than a car. Ikea and similar rent vans by the hour (I think, never done it). I've met a lot of 20s people that have never learned to drive. It used to be a right of passage.

Could USA be similar? I wouldn't dispute what you say about average Americans, but times are changing. There must be very densely populated cities, suburban, rural and remote locations. College cities / areas or anywhere where Uber services are popular are the correct locations. Robotaxis probably wouldn't work for the majority of USA people, but might chip away at the edge and increase over time.

In the UK a lot of people drive when elderly and not in good health. They might only drive once a week in a Toyota Yaris (tiny) sized car but at the moment do not have a choice in many places as bus services barely or don't exist. Village shops and pubs have closed. Shared robotaxis from a village for pension day (Wednesdays I think) might even be popular for oldies as it's more social and no expensive parking to pay for.

I can never drink when I go to a party and often nowhere to park at peoples' houses. Parking in many places is a nightmare - even at work. For example 'new' (well, for last 30+ years probably) business parks are only allowed enough parking spaces for one third of the expected workers. I've worked in places where you couldn't park within half a mile of your workplace as often firms have more than the original number of expected workers (1100 vs 700 planned). People get to work earlier than they need. Some sit in the car for an hour before going in. Even then I was parking on grass verges that looked (after a winter of bad parking) like WW1 battlefields or ploughed fields . Eventually these verges got fenced off - no idea what people do there now. In the summer I walked the 2 miles as it was quicker than driving in traffic jams and finding a parking space.

Hospitals charge their staff (often not well paid in UK) for parking and even then it can be hard to find spaces in staff car parks. All-day parking can be very expensive especially in town centres. I think the train station here is around £11 per day but cheaper with monthly passes. People will increasingly work part-time in their office or visit clients twice a week - so daily is cheaper for many.

Robotaxis - I can see a future.
We have lots of terraced houses (row houses?) with no parking - one place I lived, I counted myself lucky if I could park on the same street. Imagine having kids and shopping in a British winter and parking 400 yards away in the dark. Charging would need to innovative in terraced streets! It's happening slowly.

I'm not sure of the price structure - per mile seems crude - time and distance seems better. Shared Robotaxis acting as mini-buses or for people working at same location on shifts (again hospital) might make a lot of sense. Often there are bus lanes which taxis can use (not sure about mini cabs/Uber - licenced differently). This means a taxi is faster than private cars in built up areas. When I get taxis from the station to home (3 miles) - I often pay £11 due to traffic and distance.

A boring tunnel or two would change things in ways I can barely imagine but look forward to.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Tesla hasn't installed any charges that would be able to automatically connect the charging plug with the car port. Neither has there been any mention about such chargers during the last couple of years. Isn't this strange if FSD really was only a few years away? Perhaps someone could ask about this at the shareholder meeting.

You are right. But these can be installed quickly when needed.

All the Superchargers in Germany and Europe? were upgraded to the new plug for Model 3. This was done in a few weeks.

No need to install automatic plugs before they can be used by robot taxis.

Pre Market Stock Price in Germany up above $1,400 again (after a dip in the $1,360 range).

 

[ProfTournesol]

as we say in dutch: Ohhh dat gaat lekker! (translated in: that is nice) or something like it.
Tesla China sold 14,954 Model 3 vehicles in June, up 35% on the month

Start your rocket engines $TSLA! Will it be a wet dress rehearsal or do we skip the testing and fly off into space?