Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[smorgasbord]

Well, that would be two years before Elon Musk was even born, so no, that would require waiting too many decades. Even Apple's run in the 2000's is too long a wait.

Hard to say in 3 words, but in essence: "1990: Buy Dell. 1999: Sell." Something like a 412X return in a decade - that's over 82% CAGR, beating TSLA's current 52% CAGR decade run. So far.

Venturing back to the 3 word limit, how about:
"Sarava wins Belmont" (70:1 payout in a day, 2012)
"Jets Superbowl III" (Namath and Jets massive underdog despite Joe's "drop the mic" brag)
"US Hockey 1980" (We all love this underdog story)

 

[ZeApelido]

Cool people.

Why thank you

 

[kalefranz]

Do you happen to have a link to that?

Unfortunately no; I saw it as it was airing live. It was during the last ten minute segment of his Mad Money show on CNBC. My guess is that cnbc.com might have a clip of it up in a couple hours.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Canadian here, er... eh?

Unless you live in California or Nevada, I can assure you that ninety nine out of a hundred people have next to zero knowledge of Tesla, what it is, what it does, it's master plan, OTA update capabilities, so on and so on. Zero. This include ICE car junkies. Seriously.

Back in grade 9 I took a Computer Science course. The year was 1983. Although personal computing was just getting started, there were significant advancements. However my High School had a surplus of Fortran bubble cards (think Binary zeros and ones to write code) from years prior, so rather than teach us the up and coming tech, my introduction to personal computing was this!

Back then and there I said to myself "this personal computer thing sucks. No way is this going anywhere" and I missed out on the entire computer craze and the rise of fortunes right through the 1990s. My beginning experience always left a bad taste in my mouth.

Back to today and now. Again, ninety nine out of a hundred people (and I am being very conservative as it is much much higher) are driving around in their Fortran bubble ICE car(d)s and have zero clue what is coming. Seriously, Tesla is coming. Tesla will most definitely come. Rise of fortunes will follow those who can see past the bubbles.

 

[ZeApelido]

I have to admit Anton Wahlman works hard for his money.

Because Q2 sales for GM were down 34%, Toyota down 35%, Fiat Chrysler down 39%, etc. etc. (according to Loup Ventures), Anton was forced to hunt hither and yon in search of something to compare favorably to Tesla. But by God, he found it and Seeking Alpha published it.

TSLA: Tesla Unit Sales Fall 5% From Last Year, Unlike GM's Heavy-Duty Pickup Trucks
11:22 am, Thu, Jul. 2, 2020, by Anton Wahlman

If I were to click on this treatise (which I didn't; all the wisdom is likely in the headline), I might comment to him that heavy-duty pickup trucks are one of the few markets where Tesla does not yet compete... and that in all markets where Tesla does compete, Tesla is killing GM, contrary to Anton's articles about Chevy Bolt before Model 3 was out of the gate.

But alas, Anton's finely honed cherrypicking skills, his boundless energy, and his total immunity to embarrassment, are too much for mere facts and logic. In 2030, Seeking Alpha will likely publish his articles such as:

Disney Space Mountain Tickets Outsell SpaceX Tickets to Mars

LOL getting more desperate.

I'm noticing the comments are gradually changing their tune more positively over time. Seems like the Robinhood folks are starting to take over Sucking Alpha.

 

[H Mak]

I'm off to bed, it's after midnight here. When the Nasdaq opened today it was the most profitable minute of my life. Thanks to Elon, Kathie Wood, and everyone on this forum who helped me believe in the investment case. Also to SpeakEV which is an electric vehicle forum in the UK. When the Model 3 started deliveries in the UK, that forum was manic, with people going into a frenzy as to when they might get their cars delivered - ships being tracked through the Panama canal and docking in Zebrugge and going frantic about when their order would be fulfilled. It was reading the enthusiasm on that forum that first made me realise - this is more than just a car.

 

[StealthP3D]

I use it in a specific sense myself. For me it's just returns on my "play" account. I don't take too much risk with my main account.

But to your question. You invested in a new auto company that wanted to build electric vehicles and had never made a profit. Was that not risky enough? lol

Actually, I watched Tesla for more than 8 years before I invested a single dollar. I wanted to support an electric car company but it was too risky. I'm not sure most people appreciate what Musk has pulled off here - building a new auto company from the ground up isn't for the faint of heart. Ford is the only auto company in American history that has NOT gone bankrupt. All the rest went bankrupt (and most of them were never resurrected). And there have been a lot of them! I invested once Musk had proven himself to my satisfaction and the price was discounted very substantially from it's highs. So, no, it did not seem risky, it seemed like a very favorable risk/reward situation. It took eight years (as a public company) to get there.

Investors, in the aggregate, tend to have a lot of counter-productive "baggage". I believe it is derives from human evolution (who we are at our essence). The more of that baggage we can get rid of, the better investors we become. This is why I brought up "house money". It is a concept with no basis in reality. It is counter-productive to good investing because, using first principles thinking, we can see there is no difference between the dollars you designate as "house money" and the dollars you earn at a job, make through your own business or inherit. All dollars are exactly equal. Money is abstract and your investing will improve if you accept that.

I understand the tendency to view some dollars as being inherently different than other dollars because I have to fight my own urges sometimes to do exactly that. The inherent human tendency to view "house dollars" as being seperate from earned money is closely related to another innate human tendency that is counter-productive to good investing. Namely, the fear of losing money. A good investor detests losing money but they don't fear it. And there is a difference. Every time you invest you are risking your principle to one degree or another. The key is identify situations where the likelihood and amount of reward outweighs the risk and it is also necessary to be able to remove the attachment you have to that money by realizing the reward outweighs the risk even though there are no "sure thing" investments. Separating identical dollars into different compartments based upon irrelevant factors (such as where those dollars came from) messes with that calculus.

It's not necessarily counter-productive to have two accounts with two different strategies but there should be a clear reason why that benefits your particular situation and the dollars amounts allocated to each should be fluid and adaptable to your financial needs and goals based upon factors other than the source of the money because money is abstract and all dollars are equal and identical. Once you have realized a capital gain, it is simply money that you own, identical in all respects to any other money you own, the source is irrelevant to how you manage it for your own benefit.

 

[wipster]

OMG, you must be old, too! I remember seeing that in Philly on the first night it opened.

I never saw it, just heard about it... we were too small of a community to ever show anything like that. Closest we got was "Barberella"

 

[StealthP3D]

Wife: "OK, so come to bed then" *

* it's 22:50 here now, so this is not a "hey sexy, let's do it!" kind of scenario...

I'm honestly confused. What does the time of day have to do with whoopie?

 

[StealthP3D]

Hey, you can't post that! That's @Curt Renz's job!

I thought this was a non-union shop and whoever was available could do any job they knew how to do.

 

[SO16]

Ford is the only auto company in American history that has NOT gone bankrupt.

Ford didn’t go bankrupt because they took out a massive 5.9 billion dollar Government loan just At the right time. I believe they still owe on it since it’s not fully due until June 2022.

Automakers' Report Card: Who Still Owes Taxpayers Money? The Answer Might Surprise You

 

[willow_hiller]

Tesla refutes claims about firing workers who did not return for fear of COVID. They are still employed: Health and Safety at Tesla

 

[mejojo]

I read somewhere that there is lithium on Mars. Now I see how Tesla, SpaceX and Boring Company fit together!

I watched the documentary The Expanse and there are plenty of space bodies that have loads of lithium.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Thu, Jul 02, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA achieves the Hattrick w. 3rd consecutive ATH"

Traded: $20,686,878,373.32 ($20.69 B)
Volume: 17,250,212
VWAP: $1,199.22

Closing SP / VWAP: 100.79%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = 224.176B / 174.211B = 128.68%​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 58.9% (53rd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 43.2% (43rd Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.44% of Short Volume (53rd Percentile rank)​

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[mongo]

Ford didn’t go bankrupt because they took out a massive 5.9 billion dollar Government loan just At the right time. I believe they still owe on it since it’s not fully due until June 2022.

Automakers' Report Card: Who Still Owes Taxpayers Money? The Answer Might Surprise You

Firmly disagree with that article.
Ford saw the writing on the wall and mortgaged all their assets, including the blue oval logo for 23.6 billion prerecession
How Ford Avoided the Meltdown that Hit GM, Chrysler

Taking the same deal Chrysler and GM got was icing on the cake and needed to level the field.
Was the Big 3 Auto Bailout Worth It?

 

[Singuy]

Tesla refutes claims about firing workers who did not return for fear of COVID. They are still employed: Health and Safety at Tesla

Even if two people got canned, out of 50k

My pharmacy department of 50 people laid off more people than this recently. Not to mention this is during a pandemic and our numbers are skyrocketing in FL. It's such a nothing burger I don't even know why Tesla entertain the media with their BS.

 

[Singuy]

Even CNBC can't hold back their exuberance for TSLA. Starts at 1:40

Elon told Ron this is the quarter everything comes together. Putting Americans in space and became the most valuable auto company in the world. We are not worthy Elon, we are not worthy.

 

[traxila]

Full confession: my trading account which at times was hugely leveraged into TSLA, is down 111k over the last decade.

As you can determine for yourselves, this is an atrocious result. Part of it was the ‘funding secured’ tweet which caused me to recklessly pour money into TSLA. Also I poured leveraged money into the model 3 launch fully confident that TSLA was about to explode. Both of these actions resulted in colossal losses (for me) as the stock dropped to 180.

My long term accounts have allowed me to clear unrealized profits in the low seven figures after all my losses and even after all my Tesla car purchases. So I am very lucky.

I do feel that I am a complete loser as a trader. I have had many opportunities in the past few months to finally turn positive in the short term account but I always seem to idiotically trade my way to marginal gains.

If TSLA had exploded when I was leveraged as it did over the past six months I would have made tens of millions of dollars, much like I assume TrendTrader007 is making, for which I give him tremendous credit.

I hope all of you long term holders are making gargantuan gains (I am certain you are). I am grateful for this forum and this community. I obviously need to ground myself in a fundamental way and stop feeling so terrible about only making a couple of million.

All the best to all of you. I got into Tesla because of a childhood dream of electric cars and renewable futures. So who gives a f@ck about money anyway.

Looking forward to a highway full of zero emission cars. And a Mars landing. This would be cool.

Thanks for your time.

Peter

 

[mickle]

Anybody actually going on holiday next week? Or all summer?

.

I drove into Lamoille Canyon of the Ruby Mountains in Nevada on Monday morning, and lost all phone signals, when TSLA was around $980.

Emerged Wednesday afternoon and TSLA was $1122. Woke up this morning at Donner Lake as a Telsa millionaire and was still one when I got home.

Guess I can take more vacations now!

 

[Nocturnal]

Actually, I watched Tesla for more than 8 years before I invested a single dollar. I wanted to support an electric car company but it was too risky. I'm not sure most people appreciate what Musk has pulled off here - building a new auto company from the ground up isn't for the faint of heart. Ford is the only auto company in American history that has NOT gone bankrupt. All the rest went bankrupt (and most of them were never resurrected). And there have been a lot of them! I invested once Musk had proven himself to my satisfaction and the price was discounted very substantially from it's highs. So, no, it did not seem risky, it seemed like a very favorable risk/reward situation. It took eight years (as a public company) to get there.

Investors, in the aggregate, tend to have a lot of counter-productive "baggage". I believe it is derives from human evolution (who we are at our essence). The more of that baggage we can get rid of, the better investors we become. This is why I brought up "house money". It is a concept with no basis in reality. It is counter-productive to good investing because, using first principles thinking, we can see there is no difference between the dollars you designate as "house money" and the dollars you earn at a job, make through your own business or inherit. All dollars are exactly equal. Money is abstract and your investing will improve if you accept that.

I understand the tendency to view some dollars as being inherently different than other dollars because I have to fight my own urges sometimes to do exactly that. The inherent human tendency to view "house dollars" as being seperate from earned money is closely related to another innate human tendency that is counter-productive to good investing. Namely, the fear of losing money. A good investor detests losing money but they don't fear it. And there is a difference. Every time you invest you are risking your principle to one degree or another. The key is identify situations where the likelihood and amount of reward outweighs the risk and it is also necessary to be able to remove the attachment you have to that money by realizing the reward outweighs the risk even though there are no "sure thing" investments. Separating identical dollars into different compartments based upon irrelevant factors (such as where those dollars came from) messes with that calculus.

It's not necessarily counter-productive to have two accounts with two different strategies but there should be a clear reason why that benefits your particular situation and the dollars amounts allocated to each should be fluid and adaptable to your financial needs and goals based upon factors other than the source of the money because money is abstract and all dollars are equal and identical. Once you have realized a capital gain, it is simply money that you own, identical in all respects to any other money you own, the source is irrelevant to how you manage it for your own benefit.

My comment didn't deserve this much of a response. (they rarely do)

Yes, money is all fungible, but that's how it works on paper. When it comes out "our" money it's certainly different. We all have max levels of risk for various reasons and for various pots of money due to liquidity. Personally, I take the most risk in my standard account. Why? Well, the bulk of my core shares in are in my IRA and ROTH IRA. If I lose money there I can't replace it unless I drastically cut my income.

I think the concept of house money does apply as well. In my head I have a portion of my investments in my standard account that, if necessary, I could cash out and pay off all my debt except for my house. This debt is all 0 or very low interest so it doesn't make sense to apply that cash to it, but I'm also unwilling to place too much risk on that principle. (i.e. buying OTM calls) If I lose money that is above and beyond my obligations, that sucks. If I lose money that would be needed for an emergency fund or to pay off debt then I could be seriously harmed financially. That isn't fear, it's just prudent finance. Using terms like "house money" is just an easy way to describe this without giving a run down of my financial plan.

Full confession: my trading account which at times was hugely leveraged into TSLA, is down 111k over the last decade.

As you can determine for yourselves, this is an atrocious result. Part of it was the ‘funding secured’ tweet which caused me to recklessly pour money into TSLA. Also I poured leveraged money into the model 3 launch fully confident that TSLA was about to explode. Both of these actions resulted in colossal losses (for me) as the stock dropped to 180.

My long term accounts have allowed me to clear unrealized profits in the low seven figures after all my losses and even after all my Tesla car purchases. So I am very lucky.

That doesn't sound like you are a failure at all buddy. Most Americans (let alone the rest of the world) can't even dream that high. ​