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Cell Towers in the Sky I’ve done consulting in the commercial satellite industry for the past 20+ years, and they’ve been collectively trying to pretend SpaceX doesn’t exist (not unlike OEMs burying their head in the sand about Tesla). The industry’s cheapest launch service provider is also a...

Regardless of what the actual “installed annual capacity” in Shanghai is, if what they’ve been able to do in the Chinese factory translates into German and ‘Murican, then we just might have something here, boys.

My rolling billboard of an X is currently advertising riverside, as the bench in the photo below is my trading desk for the day. Tesla is installing solar and a couple Powerwalls at my vacation house and the power is off today, so here I sit listening to the stream babble and watching the...

Margins Tesla pays their suppliers after they've sold the vehicle, so when deliveries go up every quarter that works very much to their advantage. They get a bunch of raw materials delivered, turn them into a car, sell it and get cash relatively immediately, and some weeks later pay the...

Starlink Maritime (and Aviation) are going to be game-changers for SpaceX, and eventually Tesla. The $5k/mo may seem steep, but it’s nothing compared to the current competition. Those are priced per GB; you can get about 25 GB/mo for the same $5k if you sign a one-year plan (SL is...

I can vouch that the whompy wheels on my MX Plaid can go 150mph without falling off. Not recommended late at night in Northern NY where moose may be on the road. Or in Arkansas where rednecks may be on the road. But it had to be tested for…science. *no rednecks nor meese were harmed, and it...

Happy 420 Earnings Day, all. I haven’t posted in a while, but I did contribute to Q1 numbers, especially ASP and margin, with delivery of my MX Plaid. I’m just back from a 5000+ mile road trip to break her in, touring 22 states and hitting Austin for the Giga Texas opening (Boston --> Austin)...

On the off chance anyone has a last minute cancellation and needs a +1, I am available as my potential ticket fell through. I’ll not only compensate you well, but will chauffeur you there in my MX Plaid if you like. Shot in the dark, but I’m in Austin, so why not?

Get ready for TSLA to drop like a rock next Friday when the Starship production forecast disappoints.

Inside cam has to differentiate between can of beer and can of maple syrup. *Possibly only Quebec

Model Zero rumors > stock split rumors But…I agree that it’s unlikely Tesla China unveils the new model this week. There’s just more chance of that than the Nothing that’s happening on 12/9-10, depending on your side of the International Date Line. We don’t talk a lot about the folks managing...

My Plaid X, which I changed to a 6-seat config at the Tesla rep’s urging as he promised 2021 delivery with the higher-priced seats, just had its estimated delivery updated from January to…February. They supposedly delivered a few starting a month ago, but the rollout seems to have stalled since...

1. I’m annoyed that I spend the entire day monitoring all things Tesla and was not able to throw my money at them for an overpriced trinket as they’re bought out by all the Whistle Speculators. 2. Tesla YT dropped a Camp Mode not-an-advertisement today:

I’m not sure about the Beta, but there definitely is not yet feature parity across the iOS and Android apps. That’s pretty common for app developers, but I do think that Tesla has a particular duty to keep Android on par with iOS. They shouldn’t exact too much punishment on those that were...

The Tesla iOS app was updated yesterday, and they’re clearly putting a lot of effort into making that the center of the Tesla experience. This and the past couple updates have added features like customizable widgets, multiple car phone-as-key, better solar control, access to the Tesla shop...

Absolutely order the MY if you can afford it now. I was in the same boat, getting antsy for my CT, so I got a MY last summer, and 25K miles later it was an excellent decision. Plus, now I could sell it for more than I paid. That’s smart Tesla investing (as opposed to TSLA investing). Since my...

Uh, phrasing?

Elon is not more powerful than the POTUS, but it still can’t feel good to be called out publicly over substantive policy issues by an unquestioned titan of American industry. And made fun of, no less. Elon is in the zone and about to take control of this simulation.

Nope, I still hate Tom Brady. Interesting that only M3 is mentioned in the release. I would have thought the MY would have been at least half of the order, but maybe Tesla wouldn’t sell them any Ys. ”Let’s see how you do with the M3, young man. Then we’ll talk about the Y.”

Yes the fold-flat is the issue for me: dogs & camping. But I suppose the dogs can stay in the MY and it’ll stay cleaner. The MX is just to tide me over until my CT gets built. And for a while there, it looked like the CT might beat it. We’d heard the LR Xs were starting deliveries, but I...

Anecdotal note: I got my “move your Model X order up by changing to 6-seater“ call tonight. Mine is a Plaid, and when I pressed the rep, he said it could be as soon as a few weeks, but almost certainly by the end of the year (East coast). I did change it, though I think the 5-seater is actually...

Oh, silly TSLA, going up and tickling the underbelly of the ATH. Such a tease…maybe you don’t know the rules around here, but #1 is:

The FSD beta had 150K users click The Button, who drove 100M miles and were 30% less likely to have an accident compared to the rest of the fleet. Whatever the reasons for the difference, that’s significant, and shows how the insurance product could actually make drivers safer.

The question of KoGuan’s flakiness can be put to rest by the filename of his KQID “Time Engine” paper:

Ouch, that shippping & handling though. (Do they charge by the ”p”?)

Yesterday the QQQ bounced off support at the 360 level, which it’s done twice since mid-July, on Jul 27 and Aug 19. On those two occasions, TSLA was trading between 620-680. Yesterday it was 720-740. It has been able to ratchet up nicely over the last two months, relative to the broader market...

Are there 372 days in the year, now? You don’t get a run rate by taking a month and multiplying by 12. The more correct run rate is 492K. (41754/31)*365 Sorry, Troy. But it’s still very nice. 😉

We all agree that the Bolt thing is bad for EVs, but what I find interesting is how GM is handling it with regard to their battery supplier, LG. For starters, they are trying to get them to pay a good chunk of the ~$1.8B recall. Then the GM spokesman, Dan Flores, says, “Because we are not...

We always knew the first Tesla-branded bot would be WeedBot. “May I spark that for you, sir?’

I’m sitting outside CarMax waiting for an Uber, as I just sold my ultra-ICE ride, an F-350 diesel ($44K! and it’s just over 6 years old), and a father & son, about 12, were just walking in. The son turned to his dad as they got to the door and said, “Dad, you should buy a Tesla,” as if it had...

Fair question. I'll give only a brief* response since we're crossing over into territory that belongs in the options thread. Maybe if I make a reference to die Wiesn, it'll pass moderation muster. Risk/reward is the driver. In May, with the SP at $580, I felt we would go up sharply. The...

They both have their uses. I bought Mar 2023 1200 calls at $56.50 when we were in the sub-600 doldrums in May. So $2400 for a 20x on those, but at $3000, it's a 30x. I don't view that as likely, but it's possible. Then yesterday, with the IV in the mid-50s on those Mar '23s, I put on a YOLO...

That was actually a reprint from an earlier Popular Mechanics caption: There are many other examples going back the 1850s, but none quite so spot-on and succinct. We always knew it would kill us, but it feels so good while you’re using it. Coal, that is.

I’ve got a MY now, plus an MXP and CT on order, and although that’s plenty of vehicles to last me the next 10 years, I am ready to FOMO some more orders for cars I don’t really need. Sorta like the run on toilet paper. Anyway, we’re about to go to $800, so I’ll console myself with that for a bit...

Maybe they’re worried what you’ll wrap it in? Seriously, though, that’s obviously extremely frustrating and disappointing, and I’m frustrated as a shareholder in how they’ve handled the communication around S/X. The 6 month grace period Is over.

Oh boy, y'all aren't going to like this. The folks at the software company making the wacky CyberLandr camper announced the winner in their drawing for a free one, and, well, look: Ugh...guess it's wishful thinking that there could be a different one.

A bit gauche to reply to my own post, but...Tesla‘s new app will have Tesla Shop access? That’s too coincidental not to be the catalyst For Elon’s anti-Apple tirade. I bet it got rejected because of something outside the App Store rules (i.e. entering payment info). Hopefully they work around...

If they actually keep that cadence, it’s brilliant marketing. Elon is clearly ready to own the “2 weeks” meme. If Tesla can deliver marked progress every two weeks, that would change the narrative a bit. But it’d still be funny. I feel for the poor devs working on FSD.

You initially set up your Amazon account on a web page, not in the iOS app. Your cc is charged by Amazon, not by Apple through iTunes when you make an Amazon purchase, even if you’re using the iOS app. That’s the difference, sending a user outside the app to a web page to set up an account, as...

I bet Tesla wanted to use the iOS app for direct payment (meaning charging your iTunes account) without incurring the 30% fee for something, like non-Tesla supercharging. That way, casual users wouldn’t have to enter credit card details somewhere separate (a web page) like they do now — you...

Unusual Joy for Earnings Week This week’s chart shows the usual sell-off immediately after earnings. Then, after a day’s pause to reflect, volume picked up as the big money was buying on Thurs/Fri mornings. Today’s Afternoon Swoon was cut off by support at $683, then a nice spike to close...

Did someone say “sabotage?” I expect as many will get this as got your joke. What is no joke is this price action. Strength a day after a big gain hasn’t happened for quite a while, and it’s not because of the macros. I think 700 will finally be breached next week (or maybe even today)...

Or paying to unlock the ability to accelerate more quickly. Oh, wait...

The early narrative looks to be ”Semi pushed to 2022 - Tesla doomed”. There’s always something...

I don’t know, Mobileye’s prototype looks pretty capable. Clearly they have some engineering talent even if their decisions are different from Tesla (lidar, HD maps). Just because Waymo sucks doesn’t mean there won’t be competition...eventually.

If it means you order one now, let’s say...yes. 😁

Marginally on-topic, this fairly long read on Blue Origin by Eric Berger at Ars is excellent (he wrote Liftoff, the book on SpaceX). The premise is, now that Bezos had his little jaunt and has exited Amazon, is he going to focus on Blue Origin and make it a real competitor in commercial...

Bezos is about to take off for “real” space, and the stream is mostly a commercial, like the Virgin one was (nothing wrong with that). Rivian gets a little love as the crew vehicle. Maybe not as dramatic as the NASA astronauts getting into Model Xs, but more folks going to space and backing...

The couple billion in reg credits over that time covers a whole lotta CapEx. Thanks for the factories, guys. 😘