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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The Tesla iOS app was updated yesterday, and they’re clearly putting a lot of effort into making that the center of the Tesla experience.
Is that partially why I don't have FSD Beta? Does anyone with Android have it? Same with the in-cabin remote camera - on Apple only.
Tech FOMO here... but what if the Apple version is for the Apple Car secret partnership? (Made that up) 😁
 
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The person who lent their FSD beta car to CNN should lose access to the program. (Ok, that wouldn't look good in the media) The actual video isn't all bad. The driver is a bit of a drama queen but at least says they aren't trying to be negative. Handing beta to a brand new Tesla driver isn't wise. IMO Tesla should require X number of autopilot miles to be added to the program to prevent this exact thing.

Or banned from ever owning a Tesla. Elon's banned someone for talking sugar about the Model X. There's precedence for this.

 
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This article is about how Consumer Reports ranked Tesla very low in reliability, 27th out of 28 brands.

Here is the actual Consumer Reports article:

Who Makes the Most Reliable New Cars?

Every Tesla owner I know has always praised how trouble free their cars have been. Maybe my friends have just been lucky? Or is this another example of advertiser bias? 🤔
Consumer Reports and JD Power both emphasize components of 'quality' and 'reliability' that tend to reward the simplest vehicles. That is not entirely disingenuous because the more complex the vehicle the more things can go wrong. Further, the highest volume vehicles in their surveys are the most accurately measured so statistical reliability and validity both are more robust.

In both these vendors the 'least reliable' vehicles tend to be lower volume and more complex. The questions do vary. Not long ago software updates were considered to be 'things gone wrong' or 'defects'. They have both improved somewhat but still penalize higher specification vehicles.

The greatest oddity is the contrast between 'owner satisfaction' and 'things gone wrong'. Almost always their own surveys of 'owner satisfaction' or 'repeat purchase intentions' are inversely correlated with their own reliability surveys.

Thus Consumer Reports itself reports Tesla has with the highest owner satisfaction and almost worst reliability. Why is that? Simply because the methodology differs in the two topics. They claim to weight vehicle immobilization much more heavily than they do minor cosmetic flaws. However neither is inclined to share details.

In past years I have dealt with reports fo both, although the revenue model for JD Power gives much more detail to corporate customers than does Consumer Reports. Neither actually lies, in my experience. Both have notable biases that vary from situation to situation.

We could go into great detail about these surveys, but that would be a waste of time. Why? Consumer Reports is devoted to the very risk averse people who constitute their core customer (member) base, so even microwave ovens , washing machines and OTC vitamins are subjected to equal scrutiny. JD Power is totally dependent on Corporate clients which pay their bills, so their results invariably are skewed to favor those which pay the most. Tesla and few others are often treated with a jaundiced eye. In my opinion that is generally unconscious, but certainly not always.

Either way, we will report on their pronouncements and agonize or be thrilled, depending. Either way they will rarely make any difference at all to typical Tesla buyers and users.
 
People increasingly want a single OS for all their devices.

They don't want to learn a 2nd OS for their car.

A Tesla phone lets them chose the Tesla OS ecoystem.
SAME reason Apple Car will be a very successful product. I know a few upper-tier professionals that annoy me because they "aren't smart enough" to not be Apple everything...watch Computers Phones.
The ones I can challenge tell me "It is just easier. It does it easy." They will ALL buy an Apple car. Then again they are only about 10% of the people I know.
 
that's a stretch ... and similar to Tesla , just because Apple can design and manufacture iphones etc and make is look easy does not mean it is easy ... remember manufacturing is hard , small complex objects at scale is also hard ... there is a reason apple still garners the majority of the profits in the smartphone space
As a long-time AAPL holder I think we might benefit by understanding that AAPL excels in design and supply chain management. They do NOT excel in manufacturing because nearly all manufacturing is outsourced. They DO mange quality control and supply chains much better than almost anyone else.
 
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To be clear, I'm not defending them. Just pointing out how the debt numbers may not be as bad as they look.

Going forward, if Lease Return values plunge due to a precipitous drop in new ICE sales, then Ford's long term debt may in fact be MUCH WORSE than it looks.

Ford's solvency is literally skating on THIN ICE... :p

Cheers!
 
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Wow. I had already set my expectations to: "Tesla has industry leading margins, which are growing, but which will probably take a hit now and again upon ramping new products/production facilities."

If Tesla could just be flat or up regarding margins, that is insanely bullish.
If you read the transcript, Zach alluded to a hit to GROSS margins but are expecting to expand OPERATING margins going forward for the next 4-5 quarters.

"The launch of Austin and Berlin, we'll have ramp inefficiencies there for some period of time until we get those factories up and running. And so that's likely to put some downward pressure on our margins as those factories ramp. Our goals are to ramp those as quickly as possible. But as Drew mentioned earlier, there are a number of unknown unknowns that we'll need to work through.

With respect to operating margin, we've been very focused as a company on managing our overhead expenses and operating expenses. And operating expenses as a percentage of revenue has been declining, and I expect that trend to continue to happen. And I think the net of all of this is hopefully that we continue to make progress on operating margin over the next four or five quarters. As we think kind of forward, the business up until this point has kind of largely been a hardware automotive business with a little bit of software on top of that."
 
Recently I read that much/most of their debt is from financing customer's car purchases.

I'd like to see a breakdown of manufacturing debt vs. financing debt as these should be regarded differently, shouldn't they?

P.S. To be clear, I'm not defending them. Just pointing out how the debt numbers may not be as bad as they look.
You may be right about debt classification. I am not a CPA. Even if the numbers aren't as bad as they look, my premises stay the same as regards the fact that legacy carmakers have a very long row to hoe. I'm quite sure some, if not many, will not be able to make the transition, for various reasons.
 
Ya know, Cramer raises a serious question.

Would Ford--or any other legacy automaker--get a higher market valuation if they were to shut down ICE production and go all-in on BEVs?

The valuations of Rivian and Lucid seem to suggest this could be the case.
YOU made me think.

Why not?
But already Ford produces multiples of Lucid or Rivian? Oh yeah, all the Financial/legacy BS. Especially UAW. Ford can't even get away from it by structuring EV Production separate. Would anyone leave their stock in Ford? Or transfer it to Ford-e?
 
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The China price increase of $,2350 for the Model 3 RWD improves margins as soon as Q1 2022 as the order page shows delivery "January 2022".
This along with the prior price increases in the US that will show up in 2022, bolsters my confidence that we will not see an overall margin drop when Berlin/Austin come on board. It's my belief that Zach and team are aiming for Qtr to Qtr growth on margins even with the ramp up of Berlin/Austin.
It would be ridiculous if that happens. Bring online your 2 largest factories yet, with them sputtering a small number of cars out and still maintaining your margin.

I'll give it a 10% chance of happening (same chance Elon gave Tesla to stay alive)
 
You may be right about debt classification. I am not a CPA. Even if the numbers aren't as bad as they look, my premises stay the same as regards the fact that legacy carmakers have a very long row to hoe. I'm quite sure some, if not many, will not be able to make the transition, for various reasons.
The same nonsense that has Ford rated investment grade and Tesla junk is in play with valuations.
It is smoke and mirrors until ........BANG .....it all falls apart, and then the talking heads will spin the crap out of it.

We have seen this show before.....it will not end well for legacy.
 
As a long-time AAPL holder I think we might benefit by understanding that AAPL excels in design and supply chain management. They do NOT excel in manufacturing because nearly all manufacturing is outsourced. They DO mange quality control and supply chains much better than almost anyone else.
agree manufacturing statement was in error thanks ... also a long time AAPL holder .. and it was my mistakes in selling AAPL too early that have allowed me to be long and strong TSLA ... Foxxconn is the manufacturer ... who BTW is starting to manufacture EVs ... so?
 
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Lora Kolodny at CNBC is at it again:

Here's where Tesla and other EVs ranked in this year's Consumer Reports reliability survey

This article is about how Consumer Reports ranked Tesla very low in reliability, 27th out of 28 brands.

Here is the actual Consumer Reports article:

Who Makes the Most Reliable New Cars?

Every Tesla owner I know has always praised how trouble free their cars have been. Maybe my friends have just been lucky? Or is this another example of advertiser bias? 🤔
The consumer was not queried to conclude reliability, But only as to the frequency of events. And not even the "events" are the same.
As I remember it, CR asked just how many times the vehicle had been serviced. And used that metric against all the legacy Auto Companies.
But one owner's "service" is not another's.
The main failure of "like events" is a "service" event is usually a phone call for Tesla, and a Trip to the car dealership for the rest. This would in itself produce less calls for ALL the legacy autos.
 
Is that partially why I don't have FSD Beta? Does anyone with Android have it? Same with the in-cabin remote camera - on Apple only.
Tech FOMO here... but what if the Apple version is for the Apple Car secret partnership? (Made that up) 😁

I’m not sure about the Beta, but there definitely is not yet feature parity across the iOS and Android apps. That’s pretty common for app developers, but I do think that Tesla has a particular duty to keep Android on par with iOS.

They shouldn’t exact too much punishment on those that were bright enough to choose a Tesla, but somehow went with the inferior phone OS. :cool:
 
The same nonsense that has Ford rated investment grade and Tesla junk is in play with valuations.
It is smoke and mirrors until ........BANG .....it all falls apart, and then the talking heads will spin the crap out of it.

We have seen this show before.....it will not end well for legacy.

This is why all the show and hubbub about electrification - so that when the ish hits the fan, they will say, “Look what we were about to do! 600K EVs by 2023! We were leading the charge to electrification! We had all these new factories planned!”

The public will be forcefed the lie that electrification cannot happen without these pioneering companies and their dedicated workforces. And bailout.