Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Duffer]

This is an unfortunate article written by a well-known writer with a relatively large audience in the Bay Area. It illustrates how the disdain for Tesla is seeping into mainstream progressive thought, especially in the Bay Area which is in the midst of a new type of class war. Tesla is the IT possession for the "haves." Notice how the author didn't use any facts or data. He's spouting off opinion/commentary, which is his shtick, but unlike paid writers, he's doing it simply because he's been manipulated to think otherwise. In other words, the FUD works on some people.

IMHO, this disdain for Tesla/Musk among the mainstream progressives is actually the biggest long term threat.

Big oil/big auto will throw everything they can at Tesla/Musk before they go under and there's no doubt it will be extremely ugly. However, the vilifying of Elon as a selfish billionaire who puts money ahead of everything, including the very lives of his employees, fits the stereotypical villain that progressives want to protect the world from.

Elon is working hard to ensure human survival with sustainable energy and clean transportation, as well as improving the lives of people (Starlink & Neuralink). Unfortunately, there are those that won't be able to see beyond the perceived evil and will "fight for the common man" even if that might hasten the end of our world as we know it now.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Let's take a moment to marvel at this:
- Tesla is expanding Fremont's production capacity.
- Building out the Kato Road facility
- Significantly expanding Shanghai
- Building a new facilty in Austin
- Building a new facilty in Berlin

..and
- they are not funding this with a Capital Raise
- they are not funding it with Debt
- they are not drawing down their Cash on the balance sheet.

Tesla is funding all this with cash generated from Operations. Yep, the company that "loses money on every car" it sells, generates enough cash each quarter from operations to fund this massive expansion.
Even after funding all these Capital Expenditures, they still have cash left over (Free Cash Flow). In fact, since Q2 2020, they will have generated Free Cash Flow of $4.4B by Q2 2021.

View attachment 682754

IMHO this is worth a save for post-earnings-FUD retorts.

 

[twtestw]

Surprised the Tesla MY SR being released in China isn’t being seen as a home run.

Isn’t it technically cheaper to produce the MY SR there because of the use of LFP packs and CATL being the supplier (I think)? So therefore, they probably see a better margin on these than they did in the U.S?

Add on the timing of a brand new deal with CATL (Where Tesla likely negotiated an amazing rate), and you probably have a situation where the competition can’t compete on price or margins.

I’m sure Panasonic’s decision to sell is somewhere in this story.

 

[insaneoctane]

Yomp. It's a 'Kabuki' thang...

View attachment 682696

I hope everyone noticed at 07:00 EDT this morning that MaxPain was 652.50 and further noticed at 16:00 EDT that we finished 31 cents above the MMs preferred SP (it's a 'miracle' /s).

"Nothing to C, move a Long..." -- MMs​

Cheers!

It’s as if the MM have gotten really good at naked shorting and fathom option pulls just like I’ve learned just when to take my foot off the accelerator to perfectly glide to the traffic stop only using regenerative braking (max pain)?

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Let's take a moment to marvel at this:
- Tesla is expanding Fremont's production capacity.
- Building out the Kato Road facility
- Significantly expanding Shanghai
- Building a new facilty in Austin
- Building a new facilty in Berlin

..and
- they are not funding this with a Capital Raise
- they are not funding it with Debt
- they are not drawing down their Cash on the balance sheet.

Tesla is funding all this with cash generated from Operations. Yep, the company that "loses money on every car it sells", generates enough cash each quarter from operations to fund this massive expansion.
Even after funding all these Capital Expenditures, they still have cash left over (Free Cash Flow). In fact, since Q2 2020, they will have generated Free Cash Flow of $4.4B by Q2 2021.

View attachment 682754

The couple billion in reg credits over that time covers a whole lotta CapEx. Thanks for the factories, guys.

 

[mltv]

Comparison: How Some Media Outlets Handled Tesla's "Recall' vs. Porsche's Recall - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! There’s a clear difference in how many mainstream media outlets handled Tesla’s software update and Porsche’s upcoming actual recall. Although Tesla’s update was labeled a recall in documents that were...

cleantechnica.com

 

[nativewolf]

You are projecting your fears and interests. During 2020Q2 earnings call, Elon said:

“The thing that bugs me the most is that our cars are not affordable enough. We need to fix that. We want to be slightly positive and maximize growth, and make the cars as affordable as possible”.​

This latest move in China directly goes to addressing that issue, thus is a top priority for Tesla. What did you expect price cuts to look like? Will you cry 'demand problem' when Tesla releases the $25K car in 2023? How about when they deliver 2M of those cars from the new Shanghai factory in 2024?

There is no demand problem, except for the FUD you're consuming (apparently willingly).

I feel yours is an optimistic take and really not quite fair to Kiwi- he brought a very good point to the discussion and it clearly is not FUD . Price cutting is always a sign of economics working and while investors might not like to see the supply/demand curves working they clearly work; almost as perfectly as gravity. Nobody cuts prices for no reason and nothing elon says refutes that. If they wanted they could sell a model Y for the cost of production, say $30k...but they don't. They rake cash in instead. Solving the affordability issue means more battery factories at massive scale (short term) and factories at scale.

 

[Criscmt]

Does options market pricing say anything significant?

For July-16-2021 500P (150 OTM) @$2.67 Vs 720C @2.51 (70 OTM)
Is this implication of complicated options positions, including hedging, or does the options pricing generally say something. Like in this case, the market is expecting downward move to be significantly more likely than upward move?

@Artful Dodger @Curt Renz @Papafox

 

[jw934]

10% I think?

Yes, 10% import duties for EVs from China to Germany or Netherlands. Add shipping then there goes most of the extra profit.

source: Access2Markets Results

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Another price increase for S/X...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1413292719674433547

 

[FireMedic]

yesterday when I went to watch the hockey game with friends. Some guy told me he read an article of a driver dying in a Model S Plaid bursting into flames. I told him 150 gas car caught on fire during the same day and probably 15 people died too. I don’t even have to read clickbait FUD articles anymore. People read them for me and I counter them with general counter-FUD already prepared one liners. I am now immune to FUD.

I was a victim of the FUD for years.

Thankfully I took a test drive in late 2019 and it was buy, buy, buy (model 3P, model X, and then as much TSLA as I could).

I’m not too worried about the FUD, it only sticks until someone in your circle gushes about the S3XY cars.

Anyone remotely open minded will quickly see the truth. It’s devastatingly (for OEM’s) obvious.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Another price increase for S/X...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1413292719674433547

We are now officially monetizing the foot-dragging of legacy automakers. Delicious.

 

[nativewolf]

Just like we have seen the world over, there is no better PR than people driving Teslas. The more people who have Teslas in a location, the more people that desire them as the results and word of mouth overwhelms the relentless FUD.

China is just getting started. It is hard for anyone, including Chinese, to actually grasp what a tremendously large country it is. Demand will explode as people on the ground realize the lies are endless.

It's really not that big most people are in an area the slightly less than that of TX and California, just full of people. Of that really the key areas are very dense in terms of where to market. That's good in a way but also a challenge. Half of Chinas population and 90% of wealth is in an area roughly the size of California (numbers may be off but I'm just making the point) so if you feel that the average owner/driver is the best marketer of Tesla than it is not a dispersal issue. Again, good and a challenge too.

I would not lightly dismiss the challenges facing Tesla in the short or long term in China. Eyes wide open. EU NA SA India Middle east- lots of easier places to sell. Heck even Japan and Korea.

 

[ChefBoyardee]

Another price increase for S/X...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1413292719674433547

Lots of demand Q3 and Q4 are going to be absolutely insane

 

[jw934]

Lol.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Another price increase for S/X...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1413292719674433547

Bullish.

 

[Singuy]

HuH, TA pro Thestockchannel youtuber is pretty bullish about Tesla. He think it's about to break out after today's price movement.

 

[Stone_Watcher]

Another price increase for S/X...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1413292719674433547

Weren't you just suggesting they export some cars from China for an extra 5k per car @The Accountant ? This seems easier

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

More EV awareness is a great thing for the company that owns the greatest mindshare association with EV's - even if Tesla doesn't have a team in the race.

Very Bullish for the mission as a) it includes a conference on climate change; & b) more and more motorsports enthusiasts see the performance, and figure out who the top dog performance EV company; Tesla.

TL;DR: Vancouver Canada, (located in Britsh Columbia - the province with the highest EV adoption in all of North America, will be hosting Formula E in 2022.

Vancouver hosting Formula E World Championship electric vehicle race in 2022

The City of Vancouver is hosting an ABB FIA Formula E World Championship race next year, organizers announced Thursday.

bc.ctvnews.ca

"...Vancouver city council voted unanimously in support of a multi-day Formula E event that would include a conference on climate change and sustainability."


Source for highest EV uptake in North America:

B.C. has highest per-capita EV sales in North America: province

The B.C. government says a new milestone has been reached on the road to vehicle electrification in the province.

vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca

 

[mickle]

Tesla vs. Everybody: A 1000-Mile Race in 11 EVs​