Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CHGolferJim]

Seems max pain is at 705ish.

I wish their cash vs. strike chart had a zoom of the crossing area. (Note Dodger’s posts about the effective break point being $5-$10 higher).

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Oktoberfest approval.....bah-hahahaha.

Considering the next Oktoberfest is in 2022 that would not be good.

Mostly useless fact: Oktoberfest usually starts mid-September. Usually ends a few days into October. Cancelled in 2021.

 

[AquaY]

Driving home tonight, listening to some Talking Heads (Wild Wild Life if you must know), I was thinking about Tesla insurance and how they can log my driving style. Sure they can log acceleration, braking and lateral Gs, stability control interventions, Wh/mi, frequency of such things, etc...But then I thought that as FSD gets really good, Tesla might be able to measure drivers deviations from what FSD would do in shadow mode vs what the driver actually does. Seems likely that they could find some trends/correlations that help them better predict liability. Just seems like a way to more accurately match insurance costs to risk allowing them to potentially undercut the competition by lots. It is not just about the data in this case, but also about having a "good" AI co-pilot logging when it sees you're doing unusual things.

When my Tesla does that I'll be selling it

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Wine production, Oktoberfest.... I know we're looking forward to the Friday afternoon drink, but shall we keep the thread focused on Tesla/TSLA instead of it stumbling around like a drunk?

 

[Krugerrand]

Zooming in on the word "fairly" - that has a lot of latitude in commercial negotiations. The current allocation of chips between Tesla and other customers may be "fair", but if the suppliers know Tesla is going to blame them for missed production there is a good chance they will find a way to make their allocation more "fair" to avoid the public criticism from a voice as powerful as Elon's. So Elon's tweet serves the dual purpose of blaming external factors and creating a hard nosed negotiating position.

Personally I think he cares more about getting chips through any means possible more than setting up excuses for missed expectations - but I guess we'll find out on the next earnings call if there is praise for suppliers helping Tesla through this difficult time.

I believe there’s definitely more to this tweet than usual simply because it’s the first time I recall him actually naming the supplier/s causing issues. Even when SpaceX had their rocket blow up do to a part that didn’t meet standards set by SpaceX, Elon never named that supplier.

He never named the German supplier who couldn’t do the falcon wing doors. We found out the supplier’s name via the lawsuit.

Elon is always super generous when others make mistakes. Naming these two chip suppliers is a departure for him, therefore I do believe there’s more to it than usual.

 

[Krugerrand]

My view is that chip suppliers need to prioritize based on most beneficial use. This has a tinge of ESG thinking agreed. Why would a chip supplier not give _all_ chips possible to EV manufacturers over ICE applications?

Prioritize on the most beneficial outcome. EM is making this a topic of discussion which is good and appropriate.

Wish that all companies would work that way.

 

[AquaY]

Sadly, one word: Money!

Seems rather strange for someone on an investment thread to imply running a company for money is bad.

 

[elasalle]

My view is that chip suppliers need to prioritize based on most beneficial use. This has a tinge of ESG thinking agreed. Why would a chip supplier not give _all_ chips possible to EV manufacturers over ICE applications?

Prioritize on the most beneficial outcome. EM is making this a topic of discussion which is good and appropriate.

Bosch at least must have the German companies with higher priority, longer contracts.
Until 1-2 years back, Level 1 suppliers did not even work with Tesla.

 

[st_lopes]

Paging @Krugerrand is #TeamBerlin back in the race!?

Tesla's Musk hopes to make first cars at Berlin plant in Oct

Tesla (TSLA.O) hopes to make the first cars at its "Gigafactory" in Gruenheide, near Berlin, in October or soon afterwards, Chief Executive Elon Musk said on Friday.

www.reuters.com

 

[Krugerrand]

Seems rather strange for someone on an investment thread to imply running a company for money is bad.

No it’s not. There’s a difference between VW and all the others who put aside morals and ethics and broke laws to make money by knowingly killing people vs Tesla that makes money as a side benefit of trying to save people.

Many of us here have made money, even gobs of money because we wanted to support the altruistic goals of Elon/Tesla. Some made money, even gobs of money by taking from thieves and bandits on Wallstreet.

Surely you understand the difference between selling a limited supply of chips to Tesla vs another manufacturing giving lip service, trying to slow the EV transition or making nothing more than a handful of compliance cars.

 

[Krugerrand]

Paging @Krugerrand is #TeamBerlin back in the race!?

Tesla's Musk hopes to make first cars at Berlin plant in Oct

Tesla (TSLA.O) hopes to make the first cars at its "Gigafactory" in Gruenheide, near Berlin, in October or soon afterwards, Chief Executive Elon Musk said on Friday.

www.reuters.com

Nope. It’s merely his ‘hope’. That’s a big caramel macchiato hedge if I ever heard one.

I think it could be a case of; guy is standing in front of my face, I’ve got to tell him something he wants to hear, even if it’s bs, otherwise there’s going to be a public confrontation and he’s bigger than me.

I’m still very much #teamAustin even while the people in charge of the state are trying to implode it.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

I prefer spreads, which are not affected as much by IV and more forgiving of SP.

My Jan 2023 1400/1600 call spreads, purchased late July when SP was ~$650 and volatility was high, are up nearly 50%. They max out with 20x profits at SP $1600, vs SP $2200+ that would be needed for naked 1400c calls to return the same 2,000%.

That's enough to pay off my mortgage dozens of times over, but I have a small mortgage

They both have their uses. I bought Mar 2023 1200 calls at $56.50 when we were in the sub-600 doldrums in May. So $2400 for a 20x on those, but at $3000, it's a 30x. I don't view that as likely, but it's possible.

Then yesterday, with the IV in the mid-50s on those Mar '23s, I put on a YOLO play in my retirement account, so it's relatively conservative. That was for Mar '23 1400/1700 spreads at $22.00, which is a 12x.

They're similar strikes to yours, but March vs. January, which is a significant difference in time/risk (the January ones will expire before Q4 earnings). Plus I only bought them yesterday, spurred by my conviction that it's finally about to break out.

There are still deals to be had because we know that 2022 is going to be markedly different than the Street thinks it is. Maybe not a disconnect so great as it was in 2019, but if your time horizon is beyond the 6-12 months that it is for Them, there are good opportunities.

 

[joh01652]

No it’s not. There’s a difference between VW and all the others who put aside morals and ethics and broke laws to make money by knowingly killing people vs Tesla that makes money as a side benefit of trying to save people.

Many of us here have made money, even gobs of money because we wanted to support the altruistic goals of Elon/Tesla. Some made money, even gobs of money by taking from thieves and bandits on Wallstreet.

Surely you understand the difference between selling a limited supply of chips to Tesla vs another manufacturing giving lip service, trying to slow the EV transition or making nothing more than a handful of compliance cars.

Protecting the life support systems that provide us the air, water and food we need to survive isn’t about altruism or charity, it’s enlightened self-interest.

Like Elon says, if you find yourself digging your own grave, stop digging.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Nope. It’s merely his ‘hope’. That’s a big caramel macchiato hedge if I ever heard one.

I think it could be a case of; guy is standing in front of my face, I’ve got to tell him something he wants to hear, even if it’s bs, otherwise there’s going to be a public confrontation and he’s bigger than me.

I’m still very much #teamAustin even while the people in charge of the state are trying to implode it.

Didn’t you think that was Elon nudging the future PM to help smooth things with federal and local officials? I thought the minister’s presence was effectively that to begin with. Surely he looks at Tesla as an unusual chance to spur development in the former East.

 

[Tslynk67]

I prefer spreads, which are not affected as much by IV and more forgiving of SP.

My Jan 2023 1400/1600 call spreads, purchased late July when SP was ~$650 and volatility was high, are up nearly 50%. They max out with 20x profits at SP $1600, vs SP $2200+ that would be needed for naked 1400c calls to return the same 2,000%.

That's enough to pay off my mortgage dozens of times over, but I have a small mortgage

I sell weekly against the 700 & 800 strikes LEAPS to bring in some pocket-money...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

We gonna see a mega pushdown to $705? Seems highly aspirational to me. Gonna buy some calls for next Friday if we drop below $710.

 

[redan]

Elon working it in Germany:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1426176396657897481

 

[TheTalkingMule]

If I'm understanding you correctly, you are publicly admitting to conspiring to manipulate the options market?

Yes, I know it's a crime that can be difficult to prosecute but admitting to it on a public forum makes it a whole lot easier!

I think the bigger question here should be.....Do we have the collective assets to formally become a "market making entity"?

You think the SEC would approve of Doge69 Securities getting naked shorting capabilities?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Elon laughing at hydrogen as a solution for cars. “Hydrogen is a waste of time, obviously”.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1426132893076791297

 

[Unpilot]

You think the SEC would approve of Doge69 Securities getting naked shorting capabilities?

Of course not....now 420Doge69 ...that would work.