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I honestly was just looking at the Model 3 RWD and the Model Y because they make up like 90% of all vehicles sold. If you take all into account, the average cuts may amount to $3.5k instead of $4k.

The vast majority of cars sold in Q1 were sold at the prices set early in the Q. There was a massive sales spike and a month+ wait list after those prices were set. If you are going to talk about the “Average” price, that is where you should be looking, not at the columns where sales slowed down. (Table linked in pervious post forgive for a bit of redundancy)

“Average” sales prices are down about $2,000 - $3,000. On top of this, production volume on their new base Model Y is massively up (double or more) and part of the goal of that vehicle was to bring the cost of manufacturing it way down.

There is the big question. Did Tesla fail to deliver those promised cost reductions? Was Giga Texas just tilting at Windmills, or is there a large savings in manufacturing costs?

Because as a percentage, Giga Texas (and Berlin!) vehicles have gone from a relatively small percentage of Tesla’s output to a very large percentage.
 
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Stop confusing the Carebear with the facts. That is cheating.

Keep in mind how this species is purposefully weaned on exaggeration and bolstered with daily supplements of fear, uncertainty, and doubt.

Including damaging facts in their mental diet could lead to cranial upset, bloated perspective, hematoma of the ego, and other potentially serious and painful side effects.

When it comes to abusing recreational facts always remember to Just Say Know!
 
On top of this, production volume on their new base Model Y is massively up (double or more) and part of the goal of that vehicle was to bring the cost of manufacturing it way down.

Do you happen to have a sense of what percent of Model Y units sold were built with the 4680 pack? Some rough estimate would be fine. I just want to know if this is around 5%, 10%, etc.
 
I am confused. Can you please tell me what you think the price cuts I refer to are that date from late January?
Is this a trick question? I mean, the chart you rely on has a most recent date of 1/23/23 for price cuts. I'm referring to your own source. I was trying to give you the benefit of the doubt that the data you relied on is accurate.
 
Do you happen to have a sense of what percent of Model Y units sold were built with the 4680 pack? Some rough estimate would be fine. I just want to know if this is around 5%, 10%, etc.
Tesla was comfortable adding the Model Y to their web site as the base Model Y offering and $3,000 less than the LR.

Seems very likely at least 15-20% of Model Ys sold in the US are this configuration at this point.

I seem to recall the Model 3 SR was about half the volume of Model 3 prior to the LR getting shuttered so maybe more.
 
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NAF (Norwegian AAA) again did their big EV range test. Now for the summer version, it had the same cars as the winter test they did in february, where the Model S won with the longest range and one of the smaller losses from their WLTP range rating.
Guess who won again :) The Model S LR with 5.7% longer range than WLTP. It's the same trip they do every year and it includes some pretty serious elevation changes especially the last half of the trip. The weather now was 20C in the lowlands and 15C in the mountains with little wind so pretty much perfect EV weather for Norway.
Link to the test
 
Tesla was comfortable adding the Model Y to their web site as the base Model Y offering and $3,000 less than the LR.

Seems very likely at least 15-20% of Model Ys sold in the US are this configuration at this point.

I seem to recall the Model 3 SR was about half the volume of Model 3 prior to the LR getting shuttered so maybe more.

Hmm I seem to recall that Tesla was having difficulty ramping 4680 production so they could produce only a small number of the base configuration. Maybe at full production capacity half of the Model Y units will be coming with the new pack.
 
I would be much more optimistic if the price cuts and discounts were that limited. On average, each car sold this quarter is about $4k cheaper than one sold last quarter - I estimated this from the US price cuts; if you have data from other markets that significantly deviates from this estimate, please do share. On 450k deliveries, this results in a $1.8B hit to gross profit, which is 40% of last quarter gross profit and 60% of income before taxes. This has not taken into account the $2k-$3k inventory discounts that Tesla is currently implementing on the Model 3 RWD in the US, but I supposed these are offset by the Berlin and Austin ramp that you brought up. The additional IRA credits amount to, what, $100M this quarter? Small amount relative to the hit from the price cuts.

The long-term implication of the margin reduction is the commoditization of the Model 3 and the Model Y, leading to a lower P/E. Lower earnings and lower P/E mean lower stock price. EPS last quarter was 85 cents, and I believe analyst consensus this quarter is around 80 cents? This is way too optimistic.
Of course the IRA on production and sales means nothing. Further, expansion of structural packs, increasing use of Gigapressed pieces, improved commodity prices, greater factory utilization etc. all mean nothing./s

It is certainly wise for you to sell all your TSLA and short some too. After all nothing is in their favor./s
As you so carefully point out all these points are bogus anyway.
Obviously you know nothing about ASP vs lowest possible price.
Obviously, you're a trifle challenged about the IRA terms.
Equally obviously, most of us try to be as careful as possible when we prognosticate.
Further, many of us are biased in favor of TSLA. Having current share price reflect >10x purchase price makes us stick-in-the-mud HODL types. True, in a way.
For those of us in that category one thing we almost always do it try to be careful to understand evolving risks. It's helpful when someone contributes in that way.
It's not so helpful when someone makes unfounded negative comments. Those are ones we tend to call FUD.
 
Yes please.



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Maybe you meant Pb. After all they do make the Hummer EV. I wish I could say this is /s but it actually seems to approach the truth.
Ah! I get it now. She leads with good old, down-to-earth lead-acid batteries.
Carbon-wrapped motors in a Plaid version, pretty please Elon. ;)
Aren't they already carbon-wrapped??
 
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Hmm I seem to recall that Tesla was having difficulty ramping 4680 production so they could produce only a small number of the base configuration. Maybe at full production capacity half of the Model Y units will be coming with the new pack.
For the moment, set aside rumors and old data about 4680 production volume.

The Model Y AWD is the top vehicle on Tesla's Model Y page. It is $3,000 less than the Model Y LR.

What percentage of buyers do you think will tap on that Model Y button? That's all I'm looking at. This is why I was quite happy when they added this SKU to the page. They are clearly comfortable enough with 4680 they were willing to put this out there.



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