Russia/Ukraine conflict

[madodel]

View attachment 944594
Been too smoky here to do my normal morning PT…and the actual smell of smoke is heavy.

Bizarrely the smell is awful here as well. My wife thought there was a local fire causing it since we are in a red flag warning (conditions are ripe for a fire to get out of control and have fuel to spread.) She didn't believe me that it was coming from Canada until she saw the local TV news which was covering it extensively.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I'd expect a weapon explosion would get higher up in the atmosphere.

There was a pretty gigantic explosion when the Chernobyl unit 4 reactor melted down. I don't know what the equivalent in tons of TNT was, but it was huge.

Edit- apparently the second explosion at Unit 4 was roughly equivalent to 300 tons of TNT.

 

[wdolson]

The HEPA equipped Teslas have a real advantage here

In 2021 we had a big wildfire across the river from us together with an inversion layer. It was dark for several days. I taped the doors shut to keep the smoke smell out.

When I went out I ran the Biodefense mode and it did work well.

 

[nativewolf]

In 2021 we had a big wildfire across the river from us together with an inversion layer. It was dark for several days. I taped the doors shut to keep the smoke smell out.

When I went out I ran the Biodefense mode and it did work well.

Neat, it is something that should be highlighted ....imagine if Tesla had some sharp marketing person...imagine

 

[BitJam]

@BitJam it is going to be very interesting to read about this in 2 years and find out what really happened.

I agree! I imagine there is a lot going on behind the scenes that we are not privy to.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I have not seen any credible public domain studies for how long the six ZNPP reactors can go without external makeup for the cooling water that is in the plant's own ponds.

Probably about 6 mths on the existing cooling pond, assuming Russia doesn't breach it too.

 

[nativewolf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1666267392106983424

overview is worth the time

 

[adiggs]

In 2021 we had a big wildfire across the river from us together with an inversion layer. It was dark for several days. I taped the doors shut to keep the smoke smell out.

When I went out I ran the Biodefense mode and it did work well.

Sorry for OT, but several are dealing with wood smoke.

Something my wife and I did back during that same wildfire @wdolson refers to .. take a box fan (or many) and tape a 20" x 20" furnace filter to the back of the fan. Run the fan(s) throughout the house. The air that goes through the filter gets the wood smoke filtered out. Both cheap and surprisingly effective. We've got a stack of 6+ for the next time we have wildfire smoke.

Make it MERV 13, not 12, like the filters Costco carries. 13 filters wood smoke particles, 12 does not.

 

[AudubonB]

It seems the Russians blunted more of an agricultural harvesting operation than a Ukrainian military counteroffensive.

'Leopard 2' Tank Seen Destroyed In Russian Media Video Was Actually A Farm Harvester

This wasn't the first time that Russia had claimed to have destroyed a Leopard 2, but it is arguably among the least convincing.

www-forbes-com.cdn.ampproject.org

It seems Russia claimed a plowshare was a sword?

 

[wdolson]

Sorry for OT, but several are dealing with wood smoke.

Something my wife and I did back during that same wildfire @wdolson refers to .. take a box fan (or many) and tape a 20" x 20" furnace filter to the back of the fan. Run the fan(s) throughout the house. The air that goes through the filter gets the wood smoke filtered out. Both cheap and surprisingly effective. We've got a stack of 6+ for the next time we have wildfire smoke.

Make it MERV 13, not 12, like the filters Costco carries. 13 filters wood smoke particles, 12 does not.

We ran the whole house HVAC fan 24/7. That did the same thing. I tossed the filter after the air cleared up.

Igor Sushko is posting a translation of a long interview with Prigozhin in parts
Part 1

https://twitter.com/x/status/1666202247464902656

Part 2

https://twitter.com/x/status/1666281190482132992

The rest coming soon.

It's a good thing for the rest of us that Prigozhin is such a marginalized figure in Russian politics. He would be dangerous if he was in charge. He's evil, but he's also very smart and one of the few Russians who is actually looking at the way things really are.

 

[BitJam]

Major Turmoil! Ukrainian 20 km Strategic Bridgehead Wiped Out

Ukrainian officials claimed that Russian forces decided to blow up the dam because Ukrainians had gradually established control over all islands [in the Kherson region of the the Dnieper] and were ready to open a second southern front and conduct an amphibious operation. In fear they [the Russians] would not be able to cope with the Ukrainian offensive in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson simultaneously, Russians blew up the dam and wiped out all the Ukrainian positions on the islands.​

​

[...] as a result the Ukrainian counter-offensive from the Kherson direction is temporarily canceled.​

​

This short video also contains other useful information. He says the nuclear power plant should be safe because they can pump water up to the cooling pond. He also says the Russians planned a smaller release to just to flood the Ukrainians on the islands but (of course) the Russians screwed up and the breach got out of control. IMO this makes a lot of sense because a smaller breach and a smaller flood would not have cut off the water supply to Crimea.

I think this is the best and most coherent explanation to date. The Russians had a specific military objective: to stop the counter-offensive in Kherson. Unfortunately for them they cut off their own water supply and flooded their own region of Kherson by mistake.

I heard very little about this bridgehead after the April video I linked to previously. Many commentators downplayed it or denied it was a bridgehead. Then there was silence. At the risk of pretzel logic, this makes sense if Ukraine was trying to keep the operation under wraps while they slowly built up forces and supplies. Of course, after the flood, Ukrainian officials felt free to talk about the bridgehead and the planned Kherson counter-offensive.

 

[wdolson]

Major Turmoil! Ukrainian 20 km Strategic Bridgehead Wiped Out

Ukrainian officials claimed that Russian forces decided to blow up the dam because Ukrainians had gradually established control over all islands [in the Kherson region of the the Dnieper] and were ready to open a second southern front and conduct an amphibious operation. In fear they [the Russians] would not be able to cope with the Ukrainian offensive in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson simultaneously, Russians blew up the dam and wiped out all the Ukrainian positions on the islands.​

​

[...] as a result the Ukrainian counter-offensive from the Kherson direction is temporarily canceled.​

​

This short video also contains other useful information. He says the nuclear power plant should be safe because they can pump water up to the cooling pond. He also says the Russians planned a smaller release to just to flood the Ukrainians on the islands but (of course) the Russians screwed up and the breach got out of control. IMO this makes a lot of sense because a smaller breach and a smaller flood would not have cut off the water supply to Crimea.

I think this is the best and most coherent explanation to date. The Russians had a specific military objective: to stop the counter-offensive in Kherson. Unfortunately for them they cut off their own water supply and flooded their own region of Kherson by mistake.

I heard very little about this bridgehead after the April video I linked to previously. Many commentators downplayed it or denied it was a bridgehead. Then there was silence. At the risk of pretzel logic, this makes sense if Ukraine was trying to keep the operation under wraps while they slowly built up forces and supplies. Of course, after the flood, Ukrainian officials felt free to talk about the bridgehead and the planned Kherson counter-offensive.

Russia seems to be paranoid about a Ukrainian amphibious operation. They spent a lot of money and put a lot of effort into building beach fortifications in Crimea too.

Logistically, an amphibious operation was never in the cards for Ukraine. NATO allies have provided some amphibious craft, but only enough to conduct raids on Russian held territory in Kherson oblast. Ukraine does not have the amphibious craft to conduct a full blown amphibious assault.

Ukraine has been harassing the Russians in Kherson oblast and they may have been playing on Russian paranoia about amphibious operations to make them think that was a vector for the assault, but I'm 99% sure there was no plan for a large scale offensive from that direction unless the Russians completely pulled out of the region leaving the river free to build a pontoon bridge capable of getting heavy equipment across.

When making a river assault, the troops crossing the river are vulnerable as long as they are in the water. Crossing a narrow river is more doable with enough supporting fire to keep the enemy down until the first wave can get across and establish a beach head, but the wider the body of water, the more support fire you need. The US relied on battleships to support naval landings in WW II. Literally nobody has those types of guns anymore.

There are realistically only three places where the core offensive can come from, in the south west south of Zaporizhzhia, a bit further east in the south towards Mariupol or in the Donbas, most likely the north so they can move down the ridgelines.

Once the Dnipro flooding resides, the Dnipro will be at lower levels than before the breach and Ukraine would be faced with a more standard river crossing attack than crossing a large, wide river. Russia basically opened up the southern front to more vectors for attack, though they won't be open for a few weeks.

There are stories of Russian troops being swept away by the flood waters. Russia pretty much destroyed all their defenses on the left bank
Putin’s troops ‘swept away’ in flooding after dam destroyed, Ukraine says

 

[Tiger]

History repeats

https://twitter.com/x/status/1665971351604154368

 

[nativewolf]

I agree! I imagine there is a lot going on behind the scenes that we are not privy to.

So the videos posted shows that someone agrees with you about flooding the islands. On the other hand they apparently killed lots of their own.

 

[nativewolf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1666353111575805952

Russian losses soaring. Russia is committing tanks now, or Ukrainian defenses have punched through far enough past the 1st line to find tanks in static condition. Also reports of failed counterattacks by Russia on the Bahkmut flanks. Washingtonpost saying something about Ukraine having punched 10km. I'm skeptical that anyone knows anything for sure yet but it sure does appear that the probing attacks are proceeding and continuing.

 

[petit_bateau]

Interesting

https://twitter.com/x/status/1666090040160825345

 

[nativewolf]

Interesting

https://twitter.com/x/status/1666090040160825345

Bizarre indeed. Is there a requirement that insurance can't challenge after 4 years? Or something like this? Seems like a license to coverup fraud.

 

[petit_bateau]

Bizarre indeed. Is there a requirement that insurance can't challenge after 4 years? Or something like this? Seems like a license to coverup fraud.

The Soviet Russian hierachy are very keen on the figleaf of legal conformance. Hence all the footling around pre the 2014 and 2022 invasions so as to have legal pretexts. A cynic might say that it is awfully convenient to pass a law not requiring investigations into dam breaches, very shortly before committing the mother of all dam breaches. Because of course - under Russian law - breaching a dam and causing enormous civilian and financial deaths in the downstream areas/etc (which Russia of course has - in Russian law at least - annexed and so are now subject to Russian law) is a crime. So the hierachy did not want to be strung up by their own law so they pre-emptively waived it. At least that is the likelihood.

Remember the Russians have breached other dams and hydraulic structures elsewhere during this conflict (and so too has Ukraine) so the legal chain is known by all parties.

 

[nativewolf]

very good points!

 

[Ogre]

I heard very little about this bridgehead after the April video I linked to previously. Many commentators downplayed it or denied it was a bridgehead. Then there was silence. At the risk of pretzel logic, this makes sense if Ukraine was trying to keep the operation under wraps while they slowly built up forces and supplies. Of course, after the flood, Ukrainian officials felt free to talk about the bridgehead and the planned Kherson counter-offensive.

I seriously doubt there was ever going to be a full on beachhead across the Dneipro. The possibility of breaching the dam has always been there and Ukraine simply lacks the fleet of boats they would need to make a rapid move across the river like that.

Occupying the island was an effective way to tie up Russia troops across a broad front.

If anything, this will make it **easier** for Ukraine to cross the Dnipro because it eliminated Russian fortifications and ammunition dumps along the east bank. Ukraine can be ready to attack well before Russia can re-establish those defenses across that broad front. It'll be about 2 weeks before they can move, but it would probably have taken them 2 weeks to breach Russian defenses one boat at a time.