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  1. graphix25

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What $1 million dollars looks like in $20 bills; displayed at the Federal Reserve Bank Museum in Chicago. 50,000 $20 bills @ .8 grams per bill = 40kg or 88.2lb
  2. graphix25

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ihor Dusaniwsky (@ihors3) | Twitter -- Latest post on open short interest Dec 24 $TSLA short int is $10.53bn ; 25.13mm shs shorted; 18.78% of float; 0.30% borrow fee. Shs shorted down -3.4mm shs, -12%, over last 30 days as price rose +26% & down -325k shs over last week.Shorts down -$2.81bn in...
  3. graphix25

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ihor Dusaniwsky (@ihors3) | Twitter A great resource to follow on Twitter is Ihor Dusaniwsky. He regularly publishes details on up to the day short interest using propriety algorithms. Here was a three year view he published a few days ago just for asking.
  4. graphix25

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    One of the most difficult transaction to make in the stock market is when to sell, especially with your winners. You could always sell half the position and hope for a pullback after earnings or in Q1. Rather than liquidating shares you could also sell out of the money covered calls as hedge...
  5. graphix25

    What does it mean that the Cybertruck “Pulls ∞”?

    Looks like we are going to find out what infinity means..
  6. graphix25

    Cybrtrk RN #

    Placed two orders as I could not deiced between the dual and tri motor options. 500 miles of range on a massive powerful truck is pretty nuts. RN1128944xx -- 2:17AM PT RN1129154xx -- 10:53AM PT ~21080 orders in about 8.5 hours over night. Not to shabby of an order rate of ~2500 per hour two...
  7. graphix25

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Came close at 7.4m in 1st hour of trading.
  8. graphix25

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Auto sales restrictions by state on selling cars on Sunday. The main rational is that banks are closed on Sunday's makes conducting auto transactions difficult. I doubt this will have much effect on the final delivery numbers but an interesting consideration.
  9. graphix25

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thinking about how much Tesla struggles to ship only 100,000 cars in a 3 month period. So I was curious what I consider the gold standard in the auto industry Toyota looked like from a delivery network perspective. In 2016 Toyota delivered 2.5 million vehicles in the US or ~208,333 a month...
  10. graphix25

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My personal "whisper number" is we break 100k deliveries in q2 driven by Raven and US / Canada incentives . Crazy I know and I'm scared to even whisper that number.
  11. graphix25

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Big volume in the 250 Aug 16 calls today playing the earnings report. There was one large 5000 option trade this morning, biggest in days.
  12. graphix25

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Disclosure: Long Tesla since 2016 so my only interest is in stock appreciation. You make good points average daily volume is a misleading indicator of short covering capacity. From reports I have seen HFT makes up more like 50-60% of the market volume in 2018. The accumulation / distribution...
  13. graphix25

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Folks on this board have been calling for a short squeeze for years. I think it's just a myth at this point. With a daily volume of over 10m and with many days 15m+ shares I think if shorts wanted to cover they could do so without too much effort or impact. There is so much profit on the...
  14. graphix25

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Battery technology roll out thoughts: Drive utilization improvements and add capacity of the current chemistry 2170 from Panasonic through end of 2021/2022 taking them to 70GWh+ between China and Giga in Nevada to support about 1.2 million 3/Y capacity. With the 2020 launch of Model Y and Model...
  15. graphix25

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I tend to agree. It's one of the reasons i used the term "Operating Profit" but should have added "before investing back into the business to provide future growth." I also get the impression to support the mission Elon will funnel back all profits into the business for the next 5 to 10 years...
  16. graphix25

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    After a really negative May and 2019 for Tesla, June has started on good note. A good time to consider if my 2022 bull forecast still hold water from January 2018. I think the average selling price for the model S/X is going to continue to go down from my $100k assumption. I suspect in the...
  17. graphix25

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    $170k in profit down the drain in less then 6 months on 1000 shares. Sorry had to share a good cry with my friends on TMC.
  18. graphix25

    TSLA Technical Analysis

    Amazing the coloration between the Vanguard Total Market Index (3615 Us stocks) and the S&P500 which basically mirrors the the top 50 stocks in the index. RIP John C. Bogle. Diversification for me is either in the market, cash or bonds. It's been my experience when things go south in a big...
  19. graphix25

    TSLA Technical Analysis

    It’s a fair point to consider the size of your net worth as a key variable in determining diversification strategy. There is a big difference between 100k, 1m, 10m or 100m. I was responding to someone who was a casual new investor who it was safe to assume they don’t have a 5m net worth. Someone...
  20. graphix25

    TSLA Technical Analysis

    For your typical educated investor 10% would be a reasonable limit in any single stock. However Tesla is one of the most contentious, volatile stocks in the stock market today. So unless you have a stomach for high levels of volatility anything more then 10% will no doubt induce moments of...
  21. graphix25

    Reduced price Autopilot & FSD for existing owners announced March 1st

    Purchased FSD upgrade for $2k. A pretty good deal. I would have never paid $4 or $5k for the upgrade but at $2k it is a pretty fair deal in particular because it includes a new FSD computer with 10-20x the performance. Overall it should make the car safer over the long haul. Plan to keep the...
  22. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Financial: Pay off $230m and $182m in Q4 convertible notes and term loan due Nov/Dec respectively. March 2019 Convertible Notes is $920m paid off or converted into shares option if stock price is above $359.87. S&P inclusion likely will not be till 2nd half of 2019 Shorts double down at $360+ to...
  23. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Between their mobile units, 300+ services centers and a upgrade taking 30 minutes it doesn't seem like a challenge. Agreed on the note that capacity of the new computer could be a limiting factor. Why not capture $1b+ in revenue as they prepare for Model Y and Semi Launch. This would...
  24. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I echo the thankfulness for the awesome Tesla Daily Podcast with Jimmy_d, it really was great. Hope they do a part 2. After the Q3 conference call and listening to Jimmy_d I've been thinking about AP 3.0 hardware. AP 2.0 began shipping in Q4 2016 and based on my estimates Tesla will have...
  25. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Debt Picture from 10-Q in Q2. I really would like to see 4 profitable quarters before they plow ahead with big investments for the Model Y, Semi, Pickup and the $25k ICE destroyer. It's pretty amazing that ICE competitors let them pretty much have the market to themselves since 2012. I...
  26. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Today my well timed Fortune Cookie at dinner: "A financial investment will yield returns beyond your hopes" I'm happy about the stay public news late today. I was pretty bummed that most of my shares were going to likely have to go bye, bye in a go private deal. With shares spread across IRA...
  27. graphix25

    Supercharger - Issaquah, WA (LIVE Oct 2018, 8 Urban stalls)

    Close up of the box. There are 4 of these boxes at the Issaquah location. Based on the label it looks like 2 x 72kw Urban Chargers per box. It appears we are going to have 8 chargers at this location.
  28. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Inline with my logic. 1156 Shares @ avg price of ~$200 a share Sell 400 and keep 707 in my IRAs, maybe sell 300 and keep 856. The cash account require liquidity as it's my rainy day fund and the kidos educational IRAs likely can not hold private shares. My 856 shares in IRAs are for 15-20...
  29. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    If indeed that is restriction it will impact a lot of folks who hold TSLA in both traditional cash accounts and IRA's. For me personally I have 80% of my position at the Fidelity IRA so not as big of a deal. I can live with a double in my cash account to allow for the conversion of my IRA...
  30. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    4 or 5 -- 5-10% owners is all that should be needed to make this transaction work. As discussed it's believed that only $15-$30b is needed to buy shares outstanding that are not going to roll over into the private shares. I think if they limit any single shareholder to a maximum of 10% it...
  31. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I contacted Fidelity my IRA provider. The basic answer is yes you can own private vehicles like real estate and private companies which are reviewed on a case by case basis by their private placement group. There are platform restrictions and hence review is required. Without the details of...
  32. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I agree with your premise that there are 205 million shares owned by shareholders with only 170 million real shares outstanding. Those 35 million shares have to be taken out of circulation before a transaction can occur. That means 35 million shares have to be sold so the shorts can buy back...
  33. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    The short sellers being forced to buy the shares back would not have the effect you describe. There are 170m shares outstanding and to take it private those 170m are the shares that will need to be purchased or converted. The extra liquidity and shares provided by the short sellers once...
  34. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Good thing there are 195 countries in the world. The 137 countries remaining we can party like it's 1999!!
  35. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    349.54+48.70 (+16.19%) At close: 4:00PM EDT Wow!!
  36. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    A nicely executed quarterly conference call Look forward to tomorrows trading. Happy shareholder..
  37. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Look at our boy go. Sure proud of the HyperChange representing us retail shareholders.
  38. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Hyperchange gets the last question!!
  39. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    "Cell starved for powerwall" Solar roof ramp coming.. Truck.. Semi.. The pipeline we all know about. Long validation program for the roof. Ramp in 2019 in Giga2. We got supper awesome stuff coming. Model Y reservation program like Model3? "No decision have been made on that." More...
  40. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    One Million vehicles in 2020? Elon "I think so, maybe aim for 1m but somewhere between 500 to 1million, 750m maybe" Where are you going to get the capacity to do so? "Have you hear about a place called Shanghai, dohh". Where is model y going to be build? "Sorry not ready to discuss that."...
  41. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    How are you going to fund growth?? Regulator outstanding. Elon "not raising any equity" "china default plan use loan from local banks in china and fund with local debt" "we could raise money but we don't need too" "we start paying off debt, for example convertiable due soon 900m we expect to...
  42. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    328.65 +27.81 (9.24%) After hours: 6:02PM EDT Wow!!
  43. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Top trade ins Toyota Prius BMW 3 Honda Accord Honda Civic Nissan Leaf Not your traditional luxury buyer. I turned in BMW 3 series lease when moving into the Model 3.
  44. graphix25

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Focus on technology as this is not just a car company was a good move for the conference call. Big product announcement for a conference call. Have the technical leads describe what they have coming in both hardware and software. Love it.
  45. graphix25

    Pictures of production Model 3s

    Dreaming of an upgrade...