sundaymorning
Active Member
If you have more time, please post your thoughts and sentiment on the upcoming Q3.
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If you have more time, please post your thoughts and sentiment on the upcoming Q3.
So I lost about 30% of my life's savings because my J20 400 LEAPs went off a cliff in the span of 5 minutes, had to sell and buy DITM leap, all that for nothing? I'm a tad annoyed. Now those J20 400 LEAPs are going to skyrocket and if I want to get back into them, it's a day's wait.
I'm pretty ok with losing money because the stock price goes down, because at least it's anchored to the stock price. But losing money for reasons other than the SP does annoy me, a lot.
I'm pretty ok with losing money because the stock price goes down, because at least it's anchored to the stock price. But losing money for reasons other than the SP does annoy me, a lot.
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If we compare the situuation today with the situation just before The Tweet, I ‘d say the net effect would be that more TSLA shares are now owned by the ‘you can pry my TSLA from my cold dead hands’ crowd.
I would guess that the people here dat added to their position will keep their shares indefinitely (I added too, though I didn’t post that here), only a small portion seems to have bought to keep the shares untill the 420 dollar buyout.
Net effect to mee seems that strong longs have more TSLA, weak longs will buy back what they sold, causing upward price pressure.
I would guess that the people here dat added to their position will keep their shares indefinitely (I added too, though I didn’t post that here), only a small portion seems to have bought to keep the shares untill the 420 dollar buyout.
Net effect to mee seems that strong longs have more TSLA, weak longs will buy back what they sold, causing upward price pressure.
The New York Times is reporting on the decision to stay public: Elon Musk Says Tesla Will Remain a Public Company
The article is about 50% reporting on the actual news and 50% rehash of their recent hit piece.
The article is about 50% reporting on the actual news and 50% rehash of their recent hit piece.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I see the following selling/buying forces:
Selling pressure:
- Shorts who covered will now see their thesis strengthened and might short again.
- Speculative positions based on the $420 buyout might sell.
- The inevitable stock bashing FUD might have further effects.
Buying pressure:
- ~10 trading days worth of "pent up buy demand for TSLA stock" from institutional investors, who went into a holding pattern (or even selling pattern) due to the going-private uncertainty - during which time Tesla fundamentals improved,
- There was some mild shorting lately at lower price levels, maybe due to the belief that $420 is a worst-case price for shorts. That $420 protection is now gone.
- Some investors might feel reassured that Tesla won't pull a Dell and won't go private.
- Q3 deliveries are only 5 weeks away, Q3 report 9 weeks away. Only so much time to cover before the big event - or to get into position. Tick-tock.
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sundaymorning
Active Member
I share your pain. Self inflicted wounds such as these have annoyed me for the past 9 months. Elon needs to gather himself together and focus on production and ignore all the damn tweeters and articles. If he wants to express his sentiments, go to Tsla IR, Electrek or Cleantechnica. I understand the pressure he’s under, but we have got to start getting smart with our tweets and less trusting of others. He’s got a target on his back and needs to take every precaution before speak. Allow your PR team to handle your tweets, Elon. Do us that favor.
Well, I was pulled much more in than I would have been. Sank in some money that I wish was back to liquid, and sold some good stock of other companies to ride the wave to private. Now, it better go up. Some shifting of gears here and getting a bit of a grinding not knowing if my head is going to impact the steering wheel when shift fully engages or instead bumps my head to the headrest. Anyway, I am somewhat annoyed...
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I'd like to flesh out my thinking on this. Elon turned down several multi-billion dollar overtures from the Saudi PIF over the past year. When Elon wouldn't take their money, the Saudis started buying up TSLA equity in the open market.
On the morning of Aug 7, the Financial Times broke the story that the Saudi's had taken a position approaching 5% of TSLA. Elon decided to go public with his thoughts regarding the move to go private. As he explained in his subsequent blog post, it was only fair to all investors to dispel doubt swirling around conflicting Media reports on the Saudi investment.
So Elon and the Board, with the advice of all current investors, evaluated the move to go private with the Saudi PIF as the major source of funding. They determined it is not in the best interests of Tesla and it's owners.
And so the Saudi takeover attempt is thwarted. They do still own ~5% of TSLA, with which they will do extremely well between now and 2030. Especially if they place an $2B order for Powerpacks for Neom. In that case, they be profitting from their own purchase. Still a win for the Saudis, they should be fine with this outcome.
Cheers!
sundaymorning
Active Member
With Tesla you never know. The stock might go down up down and then up up up the next several days. Most of us here were expecting a drop after Q2 ER, that early didn’t happen in a big way. Fundamentally, the company is in a much better place “from an operational standpoint.”
There is no more reason for the big funds to further hold their Tesla shares. The "risk" of missing out the 420$ buyout just went away
Uhhh 420 is only around 10 percentage points over ATH when Tesla WASNT executing on the Model 3.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Exactly, now that a 2.5 weeks long period of uncertainty is over, there's every reason for them to continue to accumulate.
Only 5 weeks left until the Q3 deliveries letter and 9 weeks left until the Q3 quarterly report. Not much time left to get into position.
Tick-tock.
I'll drop a few Mon and pick up more at 275. Staying long as usual. Was looking forward to faster growth. Kinda bummed we're back to quarterly goals. Same endpoint.
I hope you are right. It's also possible that institutions sold because the price could only appreciate to $420 as a public company. That artificial constraint is no longer present. Institutions may now see the Bloomberg tracker at over 6000, the recent note from an analyst factory tour stating little cap ex necessary to hit 8000/week, upcoming cash flow positivity and profitability, ark invest note with 4K price target, and realize this thing can go much higher than 420. So they could buy back Monday.
Like I mentioned earlier, I wouldn't mind a drop in stock price because I'm not at my target number of shares yet. For once I hope you are right and this thing tanks! if this goes to 250 you can cover I can buy and we'll both be happy!
sundaymorning
Active Member
It’s time to get on social media and yahoo to dispell FUD, folks.
graphix25
-=electronboy=-
Today my well timed Fortune Cookie at dinner: "A financial investment will yield returns beyond your hopes"
I'm happy about the stay public news late today. I was pretty bummed that most of my shares were going to likely have to go bye, bye in a go private deal. With shares spread across IRA, ROTH, Cash and Education IRA's for the kiddos and Credited Investor risk looming large I could not be happier with the stay public decision. I'm a big believer in the future of electric mobility, green power and the autonomous future. What a better pure play then Tesla to catch all these mega trends. Long term holder with 1195 shares, 5 more to go to my goal of 1200 shares. Been a buyer since the beginning of 2016 with the big dip into the 140's with a ~$200 cost average.
Monday on the other hand is likely not going to look pretty at open. Now we can focus back on the fundamentals and the future. I would be a buyer on any meaningful pull back. Good luck and stay strong longs the future is bright with our 171m publicly tradable shares.
I'm happy about the stay public news late today. I was pretty bummed that most of my shares were going to likely have to go bye, bye in a go private deal. With shares spread across IRA, ROTH, Cash and Education IRA's for the kiddos and Credited Investor risk looming large I could not be happier with the stay public decision. I'm a big believer in the future of electric mobility, green power and the autonomous future. What a better pure play then Tesla to catch all these mega trends. Long term holder with 1195 shares, 5 more to go to my goal of 1200 shares. Been a buyer since the beginning of 2016 with the big dip into the 140's with a ~$200 cost average.
Monday on the other hand is likely not going to look pretty at open. Now we can focus back on the fundamentals and the future. I would be a buyer on any meaningful pull back. Good luck and stay strong longs the future is bright with our 171m publicly tradable shares.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
When it comes to Q3/4 ER, it's best to quote Anthony Ray (Sir Mix-a-Lot):
"Cuz I'm long, and I'm strong, and I'm down to get the friction on"
I had an inkling this would happen so bought a lot of options above 420 next year expiry. They were less than a dollar due to the going private issue. Sure the prices will go up now that the anchor has been lifted. Just need good Q3 Q4 results for a decent move up.
You put 30% of your life's savings on a bet, on a highly volatile stock?
I hope you're young. If not, you have a gambling problem.
sundaymorning
Active Member
@Jayjs20 you already know who the trolls are. Just pointing one out if you’re not up to date.
We have a Tesla addiction problem. We’re adsicted to the car, we’re also addicted to the stock, we’re addicted to rockets, we’re addicted to TMC, we’re addicted to being a cult, lastly, we’re addicted to making money.
If we were losing money than you could call us gamblers. But when Kong’s are up this hard, shorts are the ones betting the farm.
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