Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

For now. See "Dyson Sphere"

 

[RFernatt]

Meanwhile, BMW's ICEburg is steadily melting as Tesla competes across more product lines. But BMW remains committed to ICE (also to going down with the ship).

ICEberg, I like that. Brings up a good movie quote for the ICEmakers since they're all onboard a certain ship in the North Atlantic:

"But this ship can't sink!"

"She's made of iron, sir! I assure you, she can... and she will. It is a mathematical certainty."

 

[Chunky Jr.]

https://www.carsales.com.au/editorial/details/nobody-wants-evs-says-bmw-119190/

Correction : nobody wants BMW's EVs

 

[Artful Dodger]

GM still has dealerships that sell Cadillac,Camaro and Corvette in Europe.

That's true for 9 more weeks, until the new EU emissions standards take effect:

Corvette and Camaro Leaving Europe Later This Year | Jun 11 2019

"If you live in Europe and you have been waiting to buy a new Chevrolet Camaro or Corvette, you will need to do so in the next few months. On August 31st, 2019, the new emission regulations for the European Union go into effect and when they do, the LT1 V8 in those two legendary Chevy performance cars will no longer be legal in the European new car market."​

I'm uncertain about the future of the Cadillac brand in Europe. Ironically, 20 yrs ago GM built the Cadillac Caterra at the Opel plant in Rüsselsheim (Rhein-Main region of Germany). That car was sold locally as the Opel Omega, and also rebranded as "the Caddy that zigs" for import to the U.S.

Nice car, too (I own one). Mine's got 118K km on the odo, and just 5 more years to go until I can register it as an antique (25+ yrs old). Max 2,500 km/yr mileage allowed with an antique plate, but I average less than 1K km/yr on it now... it's a Sunday/Holiday driver. Classic luxury, premium equipped, 32 mpg (US) on the highway, so I'll keep it (there are only Superchargers heading in 1 direction from here at the edge of the network).

Still, I think my next touring car will be a Model Y, or perhaps a gently used HW2+ Model S. Either way, I want FSD, 'cuz holidays should be about relaxin'... But when I can drive BC<>NFLD and Alaska<>Mexico on the Supercharger network, it's gonna be much harder to keep that ol' Caddy.

Cheers!

 

[RFernatt]

GM benchmarking Lutz's unbuildable Model X probably for a new Caddy product. IPace and Etron also included. Somebody will figure out why they got a great deal on that X when they learn they benchmarked 2015 tech instead of 2019 Raven tech....

GM Benchmarking Tesla Model X At Milford Proving Grounds

 

[Artful Dodger]

ICEberg, I like that. Brings up a good movie quote for the ICEmakers since they're all onboard a certain ship in the North Atlantic

Our Iceberg Is Melting by John Kotter--Audiobook Excerpt

 

[RobStark]

Looks like more and more people are realizing Electrek is a while lotta clickbait
View attachment 424002

Roy has had a beef with Fred for a while.

 

[RobStark]

I

It misses a huge factor in business or economics in general. It's possible for followers to quickly leapfrog and catch up. Sure, it took Toyota 100 years (IDK how old they are exactly) to get to their current level of production efficiency, but it's foolish to think a new company can't catch up in 10 or 20. ​

Toyota was founded in 1937

 

[dakh]

Yeah, its a lot of rearranging the deck chairs, too. BMW's legacy ICE investment will sink the company if they are not willing to cut it away. Just as surely as Kodak's unwillingness to abandon its formerly profitable film business and embrace the digital cameras that they themselves invented.

BMW doesn't have 20 or 30 years to make the switch. That's what their Board thinks they have. They (and their shareholders) are in for a shock. You'd think that the drop in their USA sedan sales alone due to the Tesla Model 3 would raus them from their slumber. BMW's US sales of their 3 and 4 Series combined were down 25% in 2018:

View attachment 424066

Now the Tesla Model 3 comes to Europe in 2019, with the SR+ just starting to arrive in force. Then Model Y SUV comes to the US in 2020. Meanwhile, BMW's ICEburg is steadily melting as Tesla competes across more product lines. But BMW remains committed to ICE (also to going down with the ship).

Maybe BMW will get lucky and survive in bankrupcy to serve a niche market. But I doubt there will be enough demand. There's just not enough buyers to make ICE a viable new car business. Zounds like backyard hobby stuff to me...

They claim the tech they use in a hybrid car is going to be the same in fully electric one. Not unreasonable since that car can operate without the stinky part making the stink. Just add a bigger battery and remove the stink and there you go. We don't know how the market segments are lined up, could be that BMW actually has a point, as in, yes Tesla will take some market share but also some people are just not going to buy a pure EV any time soon (no place to charge, expensive charging, etc.), and BMW did the math and decided that for now that's going to be the best option for them to go after these people.

They of course are most likely screwed anyway but between shareholders that want returns now, dealers and all the rest of the pressures they're facing, there are scenarios where this strategy would work. For example, if battery energy density makes a good jump some time soon.

 

[Off Shore]

Just a pity it is so far away and that you cannot use it at night

Boy, if somebody could make some batteries to use at night, I'd invest in them.

 

[Buckminster]

TrendTrader, is that you.??

Nope, TT007 is still the daddy:

 

[mongo]

Speaking of Tesla competition...

Remember when GM/ media was touting that the Bolt came to market (Dec 2016) before Tesla launched the 3 (July 2017)?
I'll admit, GM was the first to one sale, but Tesla was the first to 32,000 (August 2018) based on US deliveries as reported by insideEVs.

Annual US deliveries
2016: 567 Bolts
2017: 23,297 Bolts ..... 1,764 3s
2018: 18,019 Bolts ..... 139,782 3s

What's the definition of mass market? Bolt is still under 50k in sales (US). In 2018, both the X and S outsold it (in US). In 2017, the S outsold it and the X was close (in US).

 

[LN1_Casey]

Wtf are you guys doing on this forum if you don't have dry powder to buy more shares. Go make dry powder. Do anything flip burgers idc, you need more shares. I've seen the future, this stonk is going parabolic very soon. $1,000 a share this year. Not joking

I work for salary. So...

 

[graphix25]

I have a solution to that issue.

Yea but it is not very efficient.. Throws away massive amounts of energy in all directions.

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla would be foolish not to make the trunk into a stamped piece in GF3 then replicated it back to Fremont.

I disagree. The trunk is made the complicated way it's made to perform optimally in a rear-end crash. There is no way that could be replicated with a single stamped "bathtub" trunk. That does nothing but cheapen the car and make it perhaps 8 lbs. lighter.

I'm willing to pay more for a rear-end that will perform better when an SUV driver on meds/cellphone/alcohol slams into me at 70 mph.

 

[ZeApelido]

Perhaps you should look into it more

Also imagine:
- a 5 MW fusion reactor that fits inside a container and costs about $400,000, enough to power 5,000 houses continuously:
- a couple of these containers are enough to power a ship;
- price per kWh less that 0.5 ¢;
- no radioactive waste;
- enough fuel available to outlast the life of earth;
- only by product Helium

Now also imagine that two of the three requirements to achieve scientific feasibility of fusion with a Dense Plasma Focus have been met end that there are no known reasons why the third (density) could also not be met.
Currently there is company who does the research and hopes to prove the concept works within a couple of months. With enough funds, first reactors can be shipped within three years.

There are enough reasons to be optimistic

Pass the dutchie 'pon the left hand side (I say)

Pass the dutchie 'pon the left hand side.

 

[StealthP3D]

Wtf are you guys doing on this forum if you don't have dry powder to buy more shares. Go make dry powder. Do anything flip burgers idc, you need more shares. I've seen the future, this stonk is going parabolic very soon. $1,000 a share this year. Not joking

I'll take $640 by December.

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: Global Top 20 - May 2019

 

[Antares Nebula]

What exactly is so problematic with this? Looks perfectly reasonable to me. The silly sensationalist title notwithstanding, make hybrids for Europe until tech and market is ready to ditch the stinky side of it and move to battery only. They think their car architecture is enabling such a transition. It will be easier, if not much easier, to make a long-range EV 3 years from now due to better batteries which has a knock-on effect on the rest of the car design. They hope to conserve capital meanwhile selling hybrids with batteries that are only good for local travel (which is the 80% of 80/20).

Their anemic EV strategy notwithstanding, BMW faces other issues. Like many others, I used to be a big BMW fan (owned two). They really were the ultimate driving machine. But not anymore after Tesla. Plus so many reliability issues with BMWs. Even if Tesla were not around, I'm done with BMW. But so glad I can buy a Tesla instead.

I predict BMW will be one of the first ICE to file for bankruptcy, likely in the next five years, ten years for sure. And I don't say this proudly. It's a shame really. BMW was a great car brand. What a fun car to own and drive! But Tesla is becoming what BMW should have become in the EV future.

 

[heltok]

Been thinking a bit about the recent Karpathy talk about network architecture and loss functions:
Andrej Karpathy | Multi-Task Learning in the Wilderness

Imo this is far from trivial and very new ideas. I doubt there are many people in the world qualified to lead these kind of projects. It requires a lot of experience and a lot of intuition, brute force is not enough. And it seems that Elon has been the mastermind behind this, early starting to build in the infrastructure to support this effort. OTA, locking sensor suite, Project Dojo, HW3, replacing Lattner with Karpathy, data engine, multitask network architecture etc. Even with Tesla now telling the world how to copy what they are doing, there are likely many years before competitors will have the infrastructure to begin using their approach.

Recommend this talk if you liked the Autonomy day talks!