But JSTs and others' argument is that Tesla just makes the changes without any notice or fanfare, and if in fact the cars in the OP do have the new changed front, where are they going?
You're saying that if there is a new nose, there will be a distinct change in ordering to get it.
So which one is it?
Correct. My guess is that if you order a car now, today, you will get a car with a revised nose. That is just a guess, obviously, but I'm going to stand by it. I will also guess that if your order is pending, you'll get the new features (whatever they are) without having to change your order or give Tesla extra money.
There are a couple of reasons to think this:
1) Tesla isn't going to keep two different versions in production. Once they switch, they switch. That both makes logical sense and is borne out by prior history. See, e.g., the addition of power folding mirrors, which was a flash-cut change that applied even to people that ordered the car without them (and for which you didn't have to pay, if you had a pending order).
2) Tesla isn't going to set a date certain by which, if you order, you get the old nose. That would create a stock of instantly out-of-date cars, which then Tesla would have to do something to try and sell (like other makers do with year-old products).
3) No one would have wanted a car without AP hardware--but plenty of people (including me) might have wanted a P85, and those were killed without fanfare or warning. Same is true of other minor revisions.
4) Some small percentage of people will be unhappy about this, but that is a smaller problem than having a bunch of "old" cars that you have to sell after the new one drops.
You can come back and mock me on, say, May 1, if it turns out I am wrong.