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Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Nope, they're going to put smart bus, computer style
Sorry not happening.
Exactly. I'm expecting 20-50k deliveries in 2017. Will be thrilled with anything more than that.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
This isn't about you being happy.
My best estimate based on data and analysis is that Tesla will deliver 100k in 2017 and 400k in 2018.
If management comes out and says 80k or 90k, then I would revise, but right now facts and analysis show 100k.
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ValueAnalyst
Closed
sorry that I asked 2 questions there... the first question was "why do you have 100k for 2017"... that article I just posted from may 2016 had exactly your numbers... 100k in 2017 and 400k in 2018... is this where your numbers came from?
Elon is not a person that is conservative on estimates... we are well aware of that... if they believed they would be producing 100k in 2017... then that's exactly what they would say or higher.
one more thing... Elon made an off the cuff statement about how fascinating it is watching the manufacturing hardware "being" delivered... they are STILL having hardware delivered... do you think they'll start production in 60 days?... 90 days?... when?
I can safely say NOT 60 days... to produce 100k M3 with a high target run rate of 5k/week... they would need 20 weeks to pull that off... that would mean they would have to start production by August... and they'd have to instantly start producing 5k/week at that time.
that is obviously NOT going to happen.
so why aren't you adjusting your DCF down?
but the more important point is... your DCF is not fact... clearly... I just proved it wrong... anyone can make Tesla's value look incredible... you guys need to take a step back and actually consider numbers more like this:
20k M3 in 2017
150k M3 in 2018
why so low?... i mean they hit 5k/wk in 2017?... right?... well did they?... and did that sustain?... and were there zero issues?
seriously... try making a DCF that ACTUALLY projects real risk on the low side...
and then consider that there are a swarm of auto manufacturers ramping up as well... time IS important now.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
myusername,
I have absolutely zero interest in answering your questions as you clearly are here to muddy the waters, discredit people, and serve your bosses.
Ignored.
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I'm having a tough time extrapolating to 100k Model 3s in 2017.
Lets assume they start production in July 1st and are able to ramp up all the way to 5k a week by 12/1.
Let's assume they average 4k a week in November, 3k a week in October, 2k a week in September, 1k a week in August, and 500 in July, and let's assume 4 weeks per month.
December is 5k cars x 4 weeks = 20k
November is 4k cars x 4 weeks = 16k
October is 3k cars x 4 weeks = 12k
September is 2k cars x 4 weeks = 8k
August is 1k cars x 4 weeks = 4k
July is 500 cars x 4 weeks = 2k
Add them all up and you get 62k as what I would argue a best case scenario.
Lets assume they start production in July 1st and are able to ramp up all the way to 5k a week by 12/1.
Let's assume they average 4k a week in November, 3k a week in October, 2k a week in September, 1k a week in August, and 500 in July, and let's assume 4 weeks per month.
December is 5k cars x 4 weeks = 20k
November is 4k cars x 4 weeks = 16k
October is 3k cars x 4 weeks = 12k
September is 2k cars x 4 weeks = 8k
August is 1k cars x 4 weeks = 4k
July is 500 cars x 4 weeks = 2k
Add them all up and you get 62k as what I would argue a best case scenario.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
that's an unfortunate response... i believe it's clear that 100k will not be achieved in 2017... all of your DCFs should be revised... the analysts will be doing this over night.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
They're getting parts at a rate of 1000/week in July, 2000/week in august, 4000/week in September. This is per management commentary.
Then you're assuming that 2x per month increase throughout 3Q (guided by mananegemt) to dramatically slow down to 25% in two months until 12/1?? Even if you just assume 5,000/week and no further ramp up in 4Q17, that's 90k+ cars in 2H17.
Elon is clearly being conservative. Just like he guided 4Q17 production start with an INTERNAL start target of July, and now all of a sudden they can do July. Just like he guided 500,000 cars in 2020, and now all of a sudden they can do that in 2018.
In any case, even if someone told me that model 3 would be delayed until January, $300/share is still undervalued. The stock price right now is assuming delayed model 3 launch, slow ramp up to 500,000 in 2020, and zero value for Tesla energy.
Even if someone doesn't understand DCF, you can see this just by noting that even after all the positive revisions and new products and much higher than expected demand, significant advancements in autopilot, flopped "Tesla killer" products and failed competition, the stock price has not changed much in the last two years.
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Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Upwards? Because Jonas has 200K M3 for 2020, right?
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
No way. This is Tesla we're talking about. If they over-deliver, it would upset the cosmic balance and world would collapse.
They' would also be $500-$600 with a ramp like that. Maybe more...
then you shouldn't rely on them at all... look at what is really happening... discussion of unions... pay increases in germany to avoid it... reduction in MS prices... etc... you may think of all of Tesla as not an auto company... but Tesla Auto IS an auto company... they will not squeak by without the same problems the rest of the auto industry has... including projected massive declines in auto sales... there will be recalls... there will be manufacturing disruptions... hell... they only have one factory!
TSLA trades for better than best case scenario today.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
the gap up scenario is dead however a hollow red candle similar to AAPl today where the SP opens lower and closes higher than the open though lower than yesterday's close is entirely possible
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
@myusername, this is not addressed to you, I have no hope left that I can help you understand. We think very diferently (Of course I'm right 
) This comment is here so you don't think I'm addressing you, since we exchanged couple of thoughts...
TMC-ers: The most important point I heard from this call was Elon's pointing to importance of the software in a machine that build the machine, and that other manufacturers wouldn't be able to replicate that. That's new piece of info and critically important too.
Because, until now, I could imagine that Tesla would do automation better than the others, but I thought it would be temporary lead, maybe marginal, figured 10-40%. However, now you add massive scale software, and software is hard, and, it's completely different competency than manufacturing... You end up with exactly one company in the world that has competency in massive manufacturing(getting better, not quite there) and massive software development: Tesla (well, maybe Samsung too).
Sure, there are some that can do this on a smaller scale, like Kuka and whatnot, but it's one thing to program a single robot and another to write ERP software like Tesla did.
This does convince me Tesla will have enduring advantage in manufacturing in few years time... of course, it will take long time before this info is relevant or well understood, so here is our informational advantage, applicable for a long term only though
And for any potential doubters in the role of the software, I'm certain Elon and the team have spent lots of time thinking about this and know more than average forum visitor...
) This comment is here so you don't think I'm addressing you, since we exchanged couple of thoughts...TMC-ers: The most important point I heard from this call was Elon's pointing to importance of the software in a machine that build the machine, and that other manufacturers wouldn't be able to replicate that. That's new piece of info and critically important too.
Because, until now, I could imagine that Tesla would do automation better than the others, but I thought it would be temporary lead, maybe marginal, figured 10-40%. However, now you add massive scale software, and software is hard, and, it's completely different competency than manufacturing... You end up with exactly one company in the world that has competency in massive manufacturing(getting better, not quite there) and massive software development: Tesla (well, maybe Samsung too).
Sure, there are some that can do this on a smaller scale, like Kuka and whatnot, but it's one thing to program a single robot and another to write ERP software like Tesla did.
This does convince me Tesla will have enduring advantage in manufacturing in few years time... of course, it will take long time before this info is relevant or well understood, so here is our informational advantage, applicable for a long term only though
And for any potential doubters in the role of the software, I'm certain Elon and the team have spent lots of time thinking about this and know more than average forum visitor...
Well said. I agree that might have been the most important point in the call for long-term investors.@myusername, this is not addressed to you, I have no hope left that I can help you understand. We think very diferently (Of course I'm right
TMC-ers: The most important point I heard from this call was Elon's pointing to importance of the software in a machine that build the machine, and that other manufacturers wouldn't be able to replicate that. That's new piece of info and critically important too.
Because, until now, I could imagine that Tesla would do automation better than the others, but I thought it would be temporary lead, maybe marginal, figured 10-40%. However, now you add massive scale software, and software is hard, and, it's completely different competency than manufacturing... You end up with exactly one company in the world that has competency in massive manufacturing(getting better, not quite there) and massive software development: Tesla.
Sure, there are some that can do this on a smaller scale, like Kuka and whatnot, but it's one thing to program a single robot and another to write ERP software like Tesla did.
This does convince me Tesla will have enduring advantage in manufacturing in few years time... of course, it will take long time before this info is relevant or well understood, so here is our informational advantage, applicable for a long term only though
And for any potential doubters in the role of the software, I'm certain Elon and the team have spent lots of time thinking about this and know more than average forum visitor...
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