2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[ggies07]

Effective exposure is in excess of 50,000 shares including common and calls
Already up in excess of $3 million in unrealized profits since I initiated the position on December 19, 2016 hence no cause for panic
If things go as I suspect and we get a parabolic move then I expect to make millions more within the next several months
Of course I could be wrong and just as easily lose all my profits and more
It took me 3 years to make a profit of $875k in Googl and Cmg from 2005 through 2008
Less than a year to lose 1.2 million in 2008-2009
Left a potential profit of $7.9 million in BIDU between 2008 through 2012 on the table by selling too soon
It took me 1 year to make a million in profits in FB from January to December of 2013
Took another year to make a second million in FB from July 2015 through July 2016
Then took me 5 months to lose a million in TSLA from July through November 16 yes I actually sold TSLA at the bottom at $182 on November 16, 2016 then bought it back at $203 on December 19,2016
I don't have enough time or space to write down all my adventures and misadventures in the stock market since 1998. Suffice it to say that I live and breathe the stock market and wouldn't trade in my passion for stocks for anything in the world
Now so far my biggest score in less than 6 months
That tells me that TSLA has lot more potential than most stocks I've ever traded and if traded right this stock is the real deal and could be a true wealth maker similar to AAPl or AMZN or NFLX
Of course, I could be terribly wrong and lose my shirt in 2 days after ER
So, Not an advice (need I say it anymore, kinda redundant isn't it)

Damnit! I bought in at $35 and wish I had the volume you have....bah!

 

[Starno]

Honnestly I really doubt there will be a dip after ER. Less than 5% chances I'd say.


However there is fair chances that we don't see a big jump (more than 5%) after. And fair chances that the SP stagnate or even go down 1 or 2% in the next days.
However I say most likely is a close around 340-345 by Friday.

 

[TrendTrader007]

At this stage it's probably more useful to follow moving averages rather than day to day candles
Case in point comparison charts of 2013 vs now
SP can fluctuate wildly from one day to other but moving averages point to the right direction
So in my humble opinion it pays to tune out the day to day noise and simply focus on the major underlying trend
What happens before or after ER will only reinforce the current trend which is decidedly up

 

[Electric4life]

Hi Tesla enthusiasts! Being an owner myself, I am hands down in love with all things Tesla. I was saddened this year to hear that Tesla will discontinue their purchasable merchandise BUT I have stocked up them over the years...so I would like to share it with you! Along with authentic merchandise produced and purchased form Tesla are some collectors items from the Model X launch, Billion Miles Tour, Meet Model X tour, and the Solar City + Tesla Launch. Please visit my eBay profile too see these and even some staff only and hard to acquire items as well!

Visit my eBay page too see all items: http://www.ebay.com/usr/m.agnello5

 

[dw4ngg]

View attachment 225225 View attachment 225224 At this stage it's probably more useful to follow moving averages rather than day to day candles
Case in point comparison charts of 2013 vs now
SP can fluctuate wildly from one day to other but moving averages point to the right direction
So in my humble opinion it pays to tune out the day to day noise and simply focus on the major underlying trend
What happens before or after ER will only reinforce the current trend which is decidedly up

Based on this, tmrw will start with a gap up and then drift down all day....... nonetheless, I'm not gonna try and trade it

 

[sundaymorning]

Cnbc analyst thinks Tesla can break out higher going into earnings.

This chart makes the case for buying Tesla ahead of earnings

 

[Cattledog]

Based on this, tmrw will start with a gap up and then drift down all day....... nonetheless, I'm not gonna try and trade it

This has happened the day before earnings several times, will be interesting to see if it can wrestle momentum away tomorrow - wouldn't bet on it.

 

[30seconds]

Effective exposure is in excess of 50,000 shares including common and calls
Already up in excess of $3 million in unrealized profits since I initiated the position on December 19, 2016 hence no cause for panic
If things go as I suspect and we get a parabolic move then I expect to make millions more within the next several months
Of course I could be wrong and just as easily lose all my profits and more
It took me 3 years to make a profit of $875k in Googl and Cmg from 2005 through 2008
Less than a year to lose 1.2 million in 2008-2009
Left a potential profit of $7.9 million in BIDU between 2008 through 2012 on the table by selling too soon
It took me 1 year to make a million in profits in FB from January to December of 2013
Took another year to make a second million in FB from July 2015 through July 2016
Then took me 5 months to lose a million in TSLA from July through November 16 yes I actually sold TSLA at the bottom at $182 on November 16, 2016 then bought it back at $203 on December 19,2016
I don't have enough time or space to write down all my adventures and misadventures in the stock market since 1998. Suffice it to say that I live and breathe the stock market and wouldn't trade in my passion for stocks for anything in the world
Now so far my biggest score in less than 6 months
That tells me that TSLA has lot more potential than most stocks I've ever traded and if traded right this stock is the real deal and could be a true wealth maker similar to AAPl or AMZN or NFLX
Of course, I could be terribly wrong and lose my shirt in 2 days after ER
So, Not an advice (need I say it anymore, kinda redundant isn't it)

Ludicrous! I mean buy yourself a P100D L or a Model S 70. Or buy it for your parents/ sibling/ wife/ best friend. Warren Buffet enjoys Dairy Queen shakes, you should enjoy some Tesla.

 

[Gerardf]

Ludicrous! I mean buy yourself a P100D L or a Model S 70. Or buy it for your parents/ sibling/ wife/ best friend. Warren Buffet enjoys Dairy Queen shakes, you should enjoy some Tesla.

Be careful encouraging him..
Imagine he is investing all this without even owning a Tesla..
Driving a Model-S as his daily driver will make him leverage even further

 

[RedFiveZero]

Speculation:

Considering Elon's meeting last week with Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang, I'm wondering if tomorrow's ER will have a surprise announcement regarding Tesla's business in China?

Link: Why is Elon Musk's surprise trip this week to China so important?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Effective exposure is in excess of 50,000 shares including common and calls
Already up in excess of $3 million in unrealized profits since I initiated the position on December 19, 2016 hence no cause for panic
If things go as I suspect and we get a parabolic move then I expect to make millions more within the next several months
Of course I could be wrong and just as easily lose all my profits and more
It took me 3 years to make a profit of $875k in Googl and Cmg from 2005 through 2008
Less than a year to lose 1.2 million in 2008-2009
Left a potential profit of $7.9 million in BIDU between 2008 through 2012 on the table by selling too soon
It took me 1 year to make a million in profits in FB from January to December of 2013
Took another year to make a second million in FB from July 2015 through July 2016
Then took me 5 months to lose a million in TSLA from July through November 16 yes I actually sold TSLA at the bottom at $182 on November 16, 2016 then bought it back at $203 on December 19,2016
I don't have enough time or space to write down all my adventures and misadventures in the stock market since 1998. Suffice it to say that I live and breathe the stock market and wouldn't trade in my passion for stocks for anything in the world
Now so far my biggest score in less than 6 months
That tells me that TSLA has lot more potential than most stocks I've ever traded and if traded right this stock is the real deal and could be a true wealth maker similar to AAPl or AMZN or NFLX
Of course, I could be terribly wrong and lose my shirt in 2 days after ER
So, Not an advice (need I say it anymore, kinda redundant isn't it)

 

[TrendTrader007]

Based on this, tmrw will start with a gap up and then drift down all day....... nonetheless, I'm not gonna try and trade it

My best guess and mind you it's just a wild guess is that today we see a pullback and then tomorrow Wednesday the day of ER the stock actually goes up against most traders' expectations and then gaps up big time on Thursday
I could be wrong of course

 

[TrendTrader007]

Ludicrous! I mean buy yourself a P100D L or a Model S 70. Or buy it for your parents/ sibling/ wife/ best friend. Warren Buffet enjoys Dairy Queen shakes, you should enjoy some Tesla.

I will
If I don't lose my shirt after ER
And once I complete current trade which may take several months

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Honnestly I really doubt there will be a dip after ER. Less than 5% chances I'd say.


However there is fair chances that we don't see a big jump (more than 5%) after. And fair chances that the SP stagnate or even go down 1 or 2% in the next days.
However I say most likely is a close around 340-345 by Friday.

I think reaction to ER will be positive as well, given that we have received so much positive news in the last few weeks (last few years really) and the stock hasn't moved enough. Elon seems optimistic as well, at least about the longer term prospects of Tesla, in his recent e-mails/letters to employees.

The only thing that gives me a bit of a pause is the extreme bullish sentiment without exception with some traders heavily buying OTM calls.

"Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful" - Warren Buffett

I am very bullish on TSLA in the longer term, and I think there is a 51% chance of a short-squeeze in the shorter term, but for the specific reason mentioned above, I am sticking with all stock with some, but not excessive, very low-cost margin. I also have a number of investments in other industries that provide me with diversification and lower volatility of daily portfolio returns. This strategy allows me to participate in the long-term upside in TSLA fully with flexibility to buy the dips, if the dips are not supported by fundamental reasons.

I ask those who have loaded up on OTM calls: what happens to your position if any country suddenly launches a nuclear missile? What if another 9/11 happens and everything sells off? What if Elon or JB gets hit by a bus? What if the Fed makes a policy mistake and raises rates more than warranted tomorrow? What if news come out that EV tax credit are to be scrapped? What if a supplier is late by three months? What if OPEC decides not to extend cuts on May 25, and oil prices dive? What if T.Rowe announces in the next 13F on May 15 that they sold all of their position? What if Chinese government decides they don't want any American companies selling to their prized market? What if Grohmann or Fremont employees decide to strike? What if Apple buys an ICE manufacturer and advanced battery tech? The list goes on.

In my opinion, NONE of the events I listed above would hurt Tesla's long-term intrinsic value enough to lower it below its current price of ~$55 billion, but they may cause the stock price to remain depressed for a period that extends beyond the expiration date of any calls. Given the large open interest in OTM calls, you can bet your pina colada that market makers and shorts will be reaching for any reason to keep the stock price down.

I am in no way saying that I know the best way to invest or that I am never wrong. I have come to my position on options above, because I was wrong. And I know I will be wrong again at some point. If someone is never wrong, it's likely because they haven't taken many risks.

All I'm saying is, if you decide to invest one way or another, make sure you have thought through the downside risk as diligently as the upside potential.

I wish all the longs the best of luck going into Wednesday's earnings. I think the future is bright for us and the storms in Shortville are just getting started.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

This has happened the day before earnings several times, will be interesting to see if it can wrestle momentum away tomorrow - wouldn't bet on it.

Yes - this has happened before, but the stock had run up much stronger going into earnings in April 2013. We did not yet see a similar move this time, yet.

 

[Starno]

A little dip might happen today, to maybe 316-317, with a volatile following but probably upward, and a close around 320

 

[Irishjugg]

I don't look at charts. I don't even look at per share price.

I try to figure out the intrinsic value (very subjective) of a company vs. the total market cap.

If you don't mind me asking, what's your current intrinsic on Tesla?

 

[Irishjugg]

Last week I posted about the anonymous short seller who in November tweeted that Curt Renz is a dimwit and sarcastically advised that Curt double down on TSLA, which Curt did. Another anonymous member of that cohort retweeted that first tweet and added a comment about the idiocy and shame of Curt Renz and his ilk. Then the rest of the short sellers in that cohort provided a fusillade of “likes” for both of those tweets. I’m sure they are fine persons with complete integrity and will soon tweet retractions and apologies.

Just reply to the first tweet with a screen shot of your unrealized gains YTD lol

 

[ValueAnalyst]

If you don't mind me asking, what's your current intrinsic on Tesla?

So much higher than current price that I expect to hold the stock even through a short squeeze.

 

[Irishjugg]

Effective exposure is in excess of 50,000 shares including common and calls
Already up in excess of $3 million in unrealized profits since I initiated the position on December 19, 2016 hence no cause for panic
If things go as I suspect and we get a parabolic move then I expect to make millions more within the next several months
Of course I could be wrong and just as easily lose all my profits and more
It took me 3 years to make a profit of $875k in Googl and Cmg from 2005 through 2008
Less than a year to lose 1.2 million in 2008-2009
Left a potential profit of $7.9 million in BIDU between 2008 through 2012 on the table by selling too soon
It took me 1 year to make a million in profits in FB from January to December of 2013
Took another year to make a second million in FB from July 2015 through July 2016
Then took me 5 months to lose a million in TSLA from July through November 16 yes I actually sold TSLA at the bottom at $182 on November 16, 2016 then bought it back at $203 on December 19,2016
I don't have enough time or space to write down all my adventures and misadventures in the stock market since 1998. Suffice it to say that I live and breathe the stock market and wouldn't trade in my passion for stocks for anything in the world
Now so far my biggest score in less than 6 months
That tells me that TSLA has lot more potential than most stocks I've ever traded and if traded right this stock is the real deal and could be a true wealth maker similar to AAPl or AMZN or NFLX
Of course, I could be terribly wrong and lose my shirt in 2 days after ER
So, Not an advice (need I say it anymore, kinda redundant isn't it)

I would read the whole list of it ever existed lol. Do you post or blog anywhere other than here that I could potentially follow?