2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[ZsoZso]

What are the chances that this current runup prior to Q1 ER is just a typical buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news event, where investors expect more than what gets delivered and we will see a dip right after the ER ?

This has happened several times in the past ~2 years since I follow TSLA, so I'm thinking maybe I should take some profits now and jump back again on the dip ? Right now I am all-in, so if a dip comes I would have no dry powder to buy the dip.
Of course, I would not risk selling too much, but maybe 10-20% of my current holdings.

 

[MP3Mike]

It's just a matter of pricing now. Admittedly the Nemesis NXR-48 is a $9000 mower, but when you have ride-on electric mowers, it really is the beginning of the end for gas mowers.

Sorry for keeping things off topic but, Ryobi has a $2,500 riding electric mower: RYOBI Electric Riding Mower

 

[vgrinshpun]

Anyone have more information on short action today?

May be there was some covering, but nothing dramatic that I see. Seems that it is business as usual for short sellers. Short, baby, short...

 

[anticitizen13.7]

What are the chances that this current runup prior to Q1 ER is just a typical buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news event, where investors expect more than what gets delivered and we will see a dip right after the ER ?

This has happened several times in the past ~2 years since I follow TSLA, so I'm thinking maybe I should take some profits now and jump back again on the dip ? Right now I am all-in, so if a dip comes I would have no dry powder to buy the dip.
Of course, I would not risk selling too much, but maybe 10-20% of my current holdings.

It's impossible IMO to predict what will happen. I've seen good ERs where the price dropped in the aftermath, and mediocre to poor ERs where the stock went up anyways.

 

[Curt Renz]

Exactly.

Shorts dug their own grave by keeping the stock price down while Elon&Team progressed along their Master Plan.

Last week I posted about the anonymous short seller who in November tweeted that Curt Renz is a dimwit and sarcastically advised that Curt double down on TSLA, which Curt did. Another anonymous member of that cohort retweeted that first tweet and added a comment about the idiocy and shame of Curt Renz and his ilk. Then the rest of the short sellers in that cohort provided a fusillade of “likes” for both of those tweets. I’m sure they are fine persons with complete integrity and will soon tweet retractions and apologies.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Interestingly enough, the highest May 05 call open interest, by far, is for strike $350.

Is it you @TrendTrader007 ?

 

[DurandalAI]

Any rumors from the VIN counters on what we should expect April sales to look like? Sure we'll get some good estimates from insideevs tomorrow, but does anybody have something today?

 

[DragonWatch]

What are the chances that this current runup prior to Q1 ER is just a typical buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news event, where investors expect more than what gets delivered and we will see a dip right after the ER ?

This has happened several times in the past ~2 years since I follow TSLA, so I'm thinking maybe I should take some profits now and jump back again on the dip ? Right now I am all-in, so if a dip comes I would have no dry powder to buy the dip.
Of course, I would not risk selling too much, but maybe 10-20% of my current holdings.

I am a long or very long bull. I do not have the skills, nor do I desire the skills to buy and sell on a whim (mathematical or new math). Yes the stock has had its down days following a mixed message quarterly report, but usually recovers within a few days. It has also tanked on threats of wars, and political failures like Greece has experienced in the past, but again Tesla has picked itself back up and road off into the sun set The hate merchants tend to scare folks, just like a dog searching for quail. My plan is to let the dogs go by so I can fly another day.

 

[ZenMan]

I'm also interested in continuing to expand my margin account, and will do so once I hit the next threshold. The only doubt I have at the moment is whether I should stick to my current broker (5% margin interest rate annually) or should I jump to a different one that can offer a better deal.

Interactive Brokers margin interest chart:
USD 0 - 100,000 2.33% (BM + 1.5%)
100,000.01 - 1,000,000 1.83% (BM + 1%)
1,000,000.01 - 3,000,000 1.33% (BM + 0.5%)

When calculating rates, keep in mind that IB uses a blended rate based on the tiers below. For example, for a balance over 1,000,000 USD, the first 100,000 is charged at the Tier I rate, the next 900,000 at the Tier II rate, etc. When determining the quoted spread, IB will use the set benchmark rate or a benchmark rate of 0 for all benchmark rates less than 0.

5% is more then twice the lowest tier interest rate at Interactive Brokers.

 

[Jayjs20]

I totally agree
Margin is a dangerous game. I'm currently paying 4% annual interest on a margin balance well in excess of $1.25 million which comes to daily interest of $137. I had margin calls until last week
All in all margin and options should only be used by experienced traders and those with extremely high risk tolerance
I do not recommend leverage to anyone who is not willing to lose millions of dollars on a single trade and not lose sleep over it
Those who don't fit that profile should stay away from margin and options
When a stock goes south then grown men cry

Then many of you will be horrified to know that I had to google how margin calls really work. After a bit of research, I found out that my broker labels TSLA as 'low volatility', which amuses me a bit, and the margin requirement is only 25%. At that evaluation, a bit of math tells me I'm safe unless the SP falls under 212, and that won't happen unless a meteor hits the gigafactory while EM is taking a nap there. Now I just need to be careful and keep an eye out in case my broker changes their mind and increases TSLA's volatility rating.

So yes, there was more I had to keep in mind than just annual interest rate, that good info's appreciated.

 

[T3slaTulips]

Oh damn guys I just found out Mark Spiegel today

Can't be him, head was above water. Pretty sure you need one of these to find him:

 

[TrendTrader007]

Interestingly enough, the highest May 05 call open interest, by far, is for strike $350.

Is it you @TrendTrader007 ?

View attachment 225170

Nope! I don't do short term calls I've only got j18 and j19s $250 $260 $290 $300 $400 $410 $500 $600

 

[kenliles]

Oracle in the SUN with IBM for cortex extension and an Au-bonbon to Linux on.

Neuralinked...

I think that by the time I can take delivery of my Model 3 in mid 2018, I'll be able to fully option it out! FSD, AWD, & Ludicrous are on my wish-list.

Mid 2018, I'm targeting a different upgrade

 

[racer26]

Pretty steep slide in the final 70 or so trading minutes of the day. Can't help but feel like that's just the market trying not to rip TSLA straight vertical into earnings.

 

[neroden]

Who says there is no euphoria? Folks:

We're discussing $9,000 lawn mowers!

Well, it is in a market (commercial stand-on mower) where competing gas mowers sell for $8300 (I just looked some up)

 

[Paracelsus]

I saw something blip across twitter about the recent capital raise notes that convert at $327.50, and that the price may go bonkers if that level is breached.

Can someone explain why that would cause the stock to go up? Wouldn't that be a dilutive event? Sorry for the novice question.

I thought this was an excellent question and I haven't found an answer that would explain the potential for the price to "go bonkers" at $327.50 yet. Has anyone else looked into this yet?

 

[neroden]

Elon said, Tesla will probably be worth 500B in 5-10 years. Let's assume it's 7 years (cut in the middle).
That means an almost 60B gain every year from today's price.
Which means basically 350 dollars a year gain from today.

You're linearizing. That's wrong. You want to compute a percentage change each year and fit to an exponential.

So 5 years would be 56% gain each year. 7 years would be 37% gain each year. 10 years would be 25% gain each year.

 

[D-egg-O]

Pretty steep slide in the final 70 or so trading minutes of the day. Can't help but feel like that's just the market trying not to rip TSLA straight vertical into earnings.

Nah, TSLA was showing its support for SpaceX today by mimicking the trajectory of the rocket launch.
http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/itl_streak.jpg

 

[geneclean55]

Pretty steep slide in the final 70 or so trading minutes of the day. Can't help but feel like that's just the market trying not to rip TSLA straight vertical into earnings.

Personally, I would like a bull flag down to ~318-20 for a Wednesday ER set-up.

 

[neroden]

It is a wonderful thing that we live in the age of the internet, where a novice, average Joe like me is able to access to all the information required to be able to confidently make investments like this. It's beyond me how anyone had the balls to invest pre internet era, when their sources of information were limited to scant and biased media reports and investment advisors who's interests were often not aligned with their clients' interests.

Well, I'll tell you, since I was investing in the pre-Internet era.

The business library at the nearest university business school.

Generally open to the public. You go there, you could get all the annual reports and SEC filings for firms (the stuff you now look up on EDGAR). They could even *order* reports which they didn't have in stock. You can get all kinds of books about all kinds of industries, including historical data going back over 100 years and books on analysis. And there was a huge collection of different newspapers, including lots of foreign newspapers. They also had "ticker tape terminals". Lots and lots of analysis reports available from various sources (anyone remember Value Line?) You did analysis by hand.

I remember looking up the last four years of annual reports for the four largest businesses in a sector. On paper. Out of filing cabinets. And sitting there all day reading through them. That's how you did it.

The main difference now is, I don't have to leave my house.