2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[JRP3]

lol this diehard Tesla cult is strong. I visit many forums so I like to read bad and good information.
What is the point of a forum if you only accept positive information or make a positive spin to a bad news/ER.

We like to read accurate information, not the spin jobs you've provided. My response to your previous post was accurate. Either you didn't understand the reality of what the link you posted meant or you tried to spin it negatively. Simply put, like many before you, you do not possess the ability to fool any of us, so stop wasting your time and ours. We know more about Tesla than you.

 

[2virgule5]

you've got to admit... an $8 move for no reason to -- $306.09 -- is some sort of magic.

low: $295.13
high: $306.25

purely random.

Trendtrader007 maybe? Or anyone else loading the truck for that matter...

 

[bonaire]

Very few people deny that it was a bad report. Obviously Tesla's a few months behind their manufacturing goal. But most of us realize it is just a temporary thing that doesn't affect the medium or long term at all.

It is time to call for a required purchasing event - anyone with only one Tesla at home shall heed the call of the conch and come in and buy a 2nd Tesla at this time - or trade in (ignore any trade-in valuation, just do it). Clear out the inventory and make some pie to throw in the face of someone. Anyone. Just make a pie. And throw it. Pumpkin Spice - because it's that time of year.

 

[traxila]

It is time to call for a required purchasing event - anyone with only one Tesla at home shall heed the call of the conch and come in and buy a 2nd Tesla at this time - or trade in (ignore any trade-in valuation, just do it). Clear out the inventory and make some pie to throw in the face of someone. Anyone. Just make a pie. And throw it. Pumpkin Spice - because it's that time of year.

Got two so I am good, thanks.

 

[justin w]

We like to read accurate information, not the spin jobs you've provided. My response to your previous post was accurate. Either you didn't understand the reality of what the link you posted meant or you tried to spin it negatively. Simply put, like many before you, you do not possess the ability to fool any of us, so stop wasting your time and ours. We know more about Tesla than you.

Do you only hang out in TMC? lol if so, you won't get all accurate information. You are entitled to your opinion if you think yours are better than mines or that I don't have a say in this forum. I am providing my version of perception here.. I don't always reflect everything about Tesla negatively.

We know more about Tesla than you. Then tell me what you know about it. I would like to hear if the stock is going up or down tomorrow or next week. Lets see, if you really know ALOT about Tesla. lol

 

[myusername]

Why selling options almost always beats buying them:

Interested in partaking in the casino of weekly options for TSLA earnings, I perused the prices on Monday looking for opportunity. Was aghast at how expensive they were. You could guess the direction right and STILL take a beating unless there was a 10% move. Well, when something is expensive, you don't buy you sell!

So I decided to sell 315 puts expiring this week for 9.01 each. Next day TSLA spiked 10 dollars and I was all puffed at my genius. In my greed, I decided to show conviction and go for the 100% profit. Wednesday back down, but TSLA still above where I executed...and my trade losing money since the premiums had gone up even more pending earnings!

Earnings strike as everyone knows and the directions is badly against. It was as extreme a move as I could have imagined. Honestly, I still don't believe that there were any surprises at all for anyone who cares enough to follow TSLA events. Which is what I expected. Market does not agree. I am suddenly in the red when just a few days before I had a 35 point cushion on breakeven.

I decide to stay the course and at least let the premium get eaten up by time. I felt the bounce I needed to the 306 range was not improbable. Today at 3:55PM EST my 9.00 limit order triggers, giving me a miraculous breakeven on the trade, DESPITE guessing the wrong direction and having the stock move against me to the tune of 15 points for where I sold and bought. Even my greed did not cost me. And greed almost always costs in this game. Buying calls - woulda been wiped. Selling puts, I get it all wrong and come out even.

Man, I shouldn't even be sharing this info....

kind of like magic that the close just now evened out with the options price before the ER... just like magic... the people that just manipulated the stock price this afternoon were doing the same thing... these are the same people rigging the $**6's... i'm a buyer... not a seller... i'm not interested in the potential for catastrophic losses.

and what you've just described means that ALL calls and puts were basically worthless if purchased within the week... and of course not dumped before hand. i think there's only been two occasions where I've held contracts through expiration. for just this reason.

imagine the kind of money this represents. just prior to the ER, $300 puts were selling for $4.50... I know, because I dumped them right before the bell on wed.

that's $450 * 5700 (OI) = $2.5m

and that's just one strike in one direction.

btw... the vast majority of the OI was sold this week... about half prior to the ER and half after.

so how much did they recover by moving the price back to $306?... well, it looks like there was ~15k put contracts between $297.50 and $305.00... that's about $12m in value. there was about 2m shares traded from when the SP was pinned to $298 and the move to $306... that represents $600m in trades...

so... that fake boost this stock just got was not some bullish act of an investor buying in... or a short closing , but someone manipulating the stock.

 

[Runarbt]

Do you only hang out in TMC? lol if so, you won't get all accurate information. You are entitled to your opinion if you think yours are better than mines or that I don't have a say in this forum. I am providing my version of perception here.. I don't always reflect everything about Tesla negatively.

We know more about Tesla than you. Then tell me what you know about it. I would like to hear if the stock is going up or down tomorrow or next week. Lets see, if you really know ALOT about Tesla. lol

Ehrm.. if you think SA and articles online elsewhere are accurate.. then.. :-D

We have uber-bulls, semi-bulls and negative bulls and objective bears here on TMC. A nice mix.. and a few "troll"-bears, but whom grow on you after a while still..(mmd, myusename) which I have on ignore, but read when I forget to log in.. and even those guys have better posts than you.

 

[bdy0627]

This narrative that it doesn't affect the medium or long term... is not true. If delays continue, they could have to raise more cash... and that could be under very unfavorable conditions... high interest rates, or if the stock is down another raise could be highly dilutive. I am long and hopefully they will get M3 generating a few thousand per week by eoy, but I am not pretending there is no long term risk if they don't.

Not to say that this is a very minor hiccup, but I wouldn't say that would happen due to the Q3 report and the current delay that was discussed. What you are describing is further unexpected delay that would result in an unexpectedly very poor Q4 report. THAT could have an effect on the medium/longer term if some other bad things occur. But, not the currently described delay and expected production in Q1 and beyond.

 

[bdy0627]

Just like the takeoff at 360 from 2 weeks ago.

True. Take it for what it is. A skilled trader's opinion, nothing more. He may be wrong again. Or not.

 

[JRP3]

Do you only hang out in TMC? lol

No. lol

if so, you won't get all accurate information.

I've been getting accurate information here for ten years, probably before you even heard of Tesla.

You are entitled to your opinion if you think yours are better than mines or that I don't have a say in this forum.

You don't. I expect most people have already put you on ignore and I'm close to doing the same.

I am providing my version of perception here..

Yup.

Then tell me what you know about it.

No.

I would like to hear if the stock is going up or down tomorrow or next week. Lets see, if you really know ALOT about Tesla. lol

A lot more than you, obviously. lol

 

[jackdillio]

Strong close today and that rise will extend to tomorrow definitely. Tesla has bottomed out at 300. Most likely, it will go up at this point. Next stop is 450-500 level

 

[jackdillio]

" I would like to hear if the stock is going up or down tomorrow or next week. Lets see, if you really know ALOT about Tesla. lol"

I can tell you what is going to happen tomorrow. It is definitely going up tomorrow based on the uptrending direction. Super strong finish today.

Bottomed out at 300.

 

[jackdillio]

Nice 0.13% gain after hour.

 

[Jayjs20]

Nice 0.13% gain after hour.

350 next week confirmed

 

[Mkorpal]

" I would like to hear if the stock is going up or down tomorrow or next week. Lets see, if you really know ALOT about Tesla. lol"

I can tell you what is going to happen tomorrow. It is definitely going up tomorrow based on the uptrending direction. Super strong finish today.

Bottomed out at 300.

I think tomorrow will be pretty flat. May not move a single %

 

[JRP3]

I would like to hear if the stock is going up or down tomorrow

I can tell you what is going to happen tomorrow. It is definitely going up tomorrow based on the uptrending direction.

What's with these clueless lower case newbies? Badly programmed bots?

 

[jackdillio]

What's with these clueless lower case newbies? Badly programmed bots?

I don't get what you meant by lower case newbies. I cannot decipher your meaning.

 

[jackdillio]

350 next week confirmed

That is exactly my thought. It is going to happen next week or the week after.

 

[TMSE]

What's with these clueless lower case newbies? Badly programmed bots?

Is it because you outed @viKtor slamet ? Capitalization at improper places gives plenty of hints

Now bots are adopting.. How can you beat that?

 

[jackdillio]

I think tomorrow will be pretty flat. May not move a single %

Why do you think so?!?! Are you telling me that you are a Tesla hater...?? You will be surprised at whats going to happen tomorrow