alright folks, below is the meat of my model.
one sentence summary, i look forward to $1.11 non-gaap eps and $0.61 gaap eps, revenues 2.7-2.9 billion.
please remember forecasting is an art not a science, and i could very well be wrong in many ways. my model is posted as a "here's what someone else did" so you can do your own work and draw your own conclusions. be careful out there!
i have a ++ estimate and a -- estimate which vary slightly more conservative and aggressive assumptions. i am looking forward to your inputs!
some quick comments:
1. solarcity segment broken out below with solarcity q4 & q3 for comparison. i assumed that accounting adjustments would negatively impact the integration - although proformas show it could swing either way. negative solar city revenue and cost impacts included, and took slightly more conservative view of nci's. these could swing favorably but will be considered "lower quality" earnings by the market.
2. i'm suspicious of my average selling prices. by separating autopilot on a line item it removes the impact of autopilot revenues flowing through the average sell price.
3. guidance of gaap/non-gaap margins imply large zev credit sales similar to q3.
4. i believe the ++ model represents by "best guess". i feel i've been overly conservative adjusting solarcity for post-merger accounting. i think there is some further likely upside in the gaap gross margin, because the number of credit sales to match the guidance feels too high.
5. the twitter language of elon leading into this report is too similar to q1 2013 for it to be coincidental. so i think he's got a bottom line profit to report for sure.
6. the numbers below are diluted gaap eps - i feel strongly that non-gaap dlluted eps will swing positive because you have to add another 50c in stock comp expense.
[TD2]1,976,250[/TD2][TD2]1,923,550[/TD2][TD2]1,719,609[/TD2][TD2]1,778,901[/TD2]
[TD2]239,274[/TD2][TD2]233,675[/TD2][TD2]254,674[/TD2][TD2]231,285[/TD2]
[TD2]44,000[/TD2][TD2]44,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]126,764[/TD2][TD2]45,465[/TD2][TD2]19,840[/TD2][TD2]138,541[/TD2]
[TD2]
2,386,288
[/TD2][TD2]
2,246,690
[/TD2][TD2]
1,994,123
[/TD2][TD2]
2,148,727
[/TD2]
[TD2]70,928[/TD2][TD2]66,199[/TD2][TD2]47,285[/TD2][TD2]23,334[/TD2]
[TD2]200,000[/TD2][TD2]200,000[/TD2][TD2]84,100[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]17,000[/TD2][TD2]17,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]200,357[/TD2][TD2]200,357[/TD2][TD2]159,123[/TD2][TD2]126,375[/TD2]
[TD2]
2,874,573
[/TD2][TD2]
2,730,247
[/TD2][TD2]
2,284,631
[/TD2][TD2]
2,298,436
[/TD2]
[TD2]1,537,108[/TD2][TD2]1,441,561[/TD2][TD2]1,372,604[/TD2][TD2]1,355,102[/TD2]
[TD2]157,535[/TD2][TD2]154,327[/TD2][TD2]171,818[/TD2][TD2]161,959[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,694,643
[/TD2][TD2]
1,595,888
[/TD2][TD2]
1,544,422
[/TD2][TD2]
1,517,061
[/TD2]
[TD2]74,474[/TD2][TD2]72,819[/TD2][TD2]60,779[/TD2][TD2]24,281[/TD2]
[TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]67,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]16,150[/TD2][TD2]16,150[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]206,368[/TD2][TD2]206,368[/TD2][TD2]177,152[/TD2][TD2]120,359[/TD2]
[TD2]
2,131,635
[/TD2][TD2]
2,041,225
[/TD2][TD2]
1,849,353
[/TD2][TD2]
1,661,701
[/TD2]
[TD2]
742,938
[/TD2][TD2]
689,021
[/TD2][TD2]
435,278
[/TD2][TD2]
636,735
[/TD2]
[TD2]29.0%[/TD2][TD2]29.0%[/TD2][TD2]22.6%[/TD2][TD2]29.4%[/TD2]
[TD2]25.0%[/TD2][TD2]27.5%[/TD2][TD2]21.8%[/TD2][TD2]24.5%[/TD2]
[TD2]-5.0%[/TD2][TD2]-10.0%[/TD2][TD2]-28.5%[/TD2][TD2]-4.1%[/TD2]
[TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]25.0%[/TD2][TD2]20.3%[/TD2][TD2]0.0%[/TD2]
[TD2]5.0%[/TD2][TD2]5.0%[/TD2][TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]0.0%[/TD2]
[TD2]-3.0%[/TD2][TD2]-3.0%[/TD2][TD2]-11.3%[/TD2][TD2]4.8%[/TD2]
[TD2]250,000[/TD2][TD2]260,000[/TD2][TD2]234,960[/TD2][TD2]214,302[/TD2]
[TD2]370,000[/TD2][TD2]390,000[/TD2][TD2]365,909[/TD2][TD2]336,811[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]15,807[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]145,000[/TD2][TD2]145,000[/TD2][TD2]74,300[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
795,000
[/TD2][TD2]
825,000
[/TD2][TD2]
701,976
[/TD2][TD2]
551,113
[/TD2]
[TD2]
-52,062
[/TD2][TD2]
-135,979
[/TD2][TD2]
-266,698
[/TD2][TD2]
85,622
[/TD2]
[TD2]3,000[/TD2][TD2]3,000[/TD2][TD2]2,179[/TD2][TD2]2,858[/TD2]
[TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-43,104[/TD2][TD2]-46,713[/TD2]
[TD2]-65,000[/TD2][TD2]-65,000[/TD2][TD2]-22,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]32,524[/TD2][TD2]-11,756[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]88,700[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
-164,062
[/TD2][TD2]
-247,979
[/TD2][TD2]
-208,399
[/TD2][TD2]
30,011
[/TD2]
[TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]11,070[/TD2][TD2]8,133[/TD2]
[TD2]
-176,062
[/TD2][TD2]
-259,979
[/TD2][TD2]
-219,469
[/TD2][TD2]
21,878
[/TD2]
[TD2]-275,000[/TD2][TD2]-250,000[/TD2][TD2]-98,132[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
98,938
[/TD2][TD2]
-9,979
[/TD2][TD2]
-121,337
[/TD2][TD2]
21,878
[/TD2]
[TD2]163,000[/TD2][TD2]163,000[/TD2][TD2]155,024[/TD2][TD2]148,991[/TD2]
[TD2]163,000[/TD2][TD2]163,000[/TD2][TD2]155,024[/TD2][TD2]156,935[/TD2]
[TD2]
0.61
[/TD2][TD2]
-0.06
[/TD2][TD2]
-0.78
[/TD2][TD2]
0.14
[/TD2]
[TD2]
0.25
[/TD2][TD2]
0.27
[/TD2][TD2]
0.25
[/TD2][TD2]
0.32
[/TD2]
[TD2]
105.40
[/TD2][TD2]
105.40
[/TD2][TD2]
103.28
[/TD2][TD2]
105.40
[/TD2]
[TD2]200,000[/TD2][TD2]200,000[/TD2][TD2]221,435[/TD2][TD2]200,551[/TD2]
[TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]142,895[/TD2][TD2]128,959[/TD2]
[TD2]60,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]78,540[/TD2][TD2]71,592[/TD2]
[TD2]175,000[/TD2][TD2]175,000[/TD2][TD2]135,175[/TD2][TD2]257,684[/TD2]
[TD2]-115,000[/TD2][TD2]-125,000[/TD2][TD2]-56,635[/TD2][TD2]-186,092[/TD2]
[TD2]-65,000[/TD2][TD2]-65,000[/TD2][TD2]-4,409[/TD2][TD2]-40,098[/TD2]
[TD2]-180,000[/TD2][TD2]-190,000[/TD2][TD2]-61,044[/TD2][TD2]-226,190[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-599[/TD2][TD2]848[/TD2]
[TD2]-180,000[/TD2][TD2]-190,000[/TD2][TD2]-61,643[/TD2][TD2]-225,342[/TD2]
[TD2]-275,000[/TD2][TD2]-250,000[/TD2][TD2]-327,679[/TD2][TD2]-278,557[/TD2]
[TD2]95,000[/TD2][TD2]60,000[/TD2][TD2]266,036[/TD2][TD2]53,215[/TD2]
one sentence summary, i look forward to $1.11 non-gaap eps and $0.61 gaap eps, revenues 2.7-2.9 billion.
please remember forecasting is an art not a science, and i could very well be wrong in many ways. my model is posted as a "here's what someone else did" so you can do your own work and draw your own conclusions. be careful out there!
i have a ++ estimate and a -- estimate which vary slightly more conservative and aggressive assumptions. i am looking forward to your inputs!
some quick comments:
1. solarcity segment broken out below with solarcity q4 & q3 for comparison. i assumed that accounting adjustments would negatively impact the integration - although proformas show it could swing either way. negative solar city revenue and cost impacts included, and took slightly more conservative view of nci's. these could swing favorably but will be considered "lower quality" earnings by the market.
2. i'm suspicious of my average selling prices. by separating autopilot on a line item it removes the impact of autopilot revenues flowing through the average sell price.
3. guidance of gaap/non-gaap margins imply large zev credit sales similar to q3.
4. i believe the ++ model represents by "best guess". i feel i've been overly conservative adjusting solarcity for post-merger accounting. i think there is some further likely upside in the gaap gross margin, because the number of credit sales to match the guidance feels too high.
5. the twitter language of elon leading into this report is too similar to q1 2013 for it to be coincidental. so i think he's got a bottom line profit to report for sure.
6. the numbers below are diluted gaap eps - i feel strongly that non-gaap dlluted eps will swing positive because you have to add another 50c in stock comp expense.
line item | q1 17 est++ | q1 17 est-- | q4 16 act. | q3 16 act. |
revenue | ||||
auto sales | ||||
auto leasing | ||||
1 time autopilot | ||||
zev credits | ||||
total auto | ||||
energy storage | ||||
solarcity | ||||
grohmann | ||||
services/other | ||||
total revenue | ||||
cost of revenue | ||||
auto | ||||
auto leasing | ||||
total auto | ||||
energy storage | ||||
solarcity | ||||
grohmann | ||||
services & other | ||||
total cost of rev | ||||
gross profit | ||||
auto gaap gm | ||||
auto-zev nongaap gm | ||||
storage gm | ||||
scty gm | ||||
grohmann gm | ||||
services gm | ||||
opex | ||||
tesla r&d | ||||
tesla sg&a | ||||
1time acq cost | ||||
solarcity r&d | ||||
solarcity sg&a | ||||
total opex | ||||
op income | ||||
interest inc | ||||
interest exp | ||||
scty interest | ||||
other income exp | ||||
1time scty gain | ||||
pretax income | ||||
income tax | ||||
net income | ||||
non-cont int. | ||||
net inc to common | ||||
basic shares | ||||
diluted shares | ||||
diluted gaap eps | ||||
assumptions | ||||
ls veh % total | ||||
avg price | ||||
solarcity check | ||||
revenue | ||||
costs | ||||
gross profit | ||||
opex | ||||
operating inc | ||||
interest | ||||
pretax income | ||||
taxes | ||||
after tax income | ||||
non-cont int | ||||
solarcity net inc |
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