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For sale is a 2018 Tesla Model 3 Performance with Full Self Driving. This car is $69k new as configured. The car has been garage kept and has only 28,750 miles. Only selling because we have three kids and had to get a larger vehicle. Feel free to text or call 310.415.8865 or send me a DM with...

sent you a PM!

No - I am taking delivery of my model 3 at the Marina Del Rey delivery center tomorrow ;) surfside

can you say which ones? surfside

Solid coverage of the discussion by the following guy on twitter: Smerity @ NIPS2017 on Twitter surfside

maybe i was hearing what i would like to hear, but it wasn’t 100% clear to me whether elon was referring to the amount of time to ramp to 10k per week from the start of production or from the time they reached 5k per week. Anyone else have any thoughts on that? surfside

been meaning to post - was driving down to Orange County from Los Angeles on Tuesday and was stuck in traffic reading TMC on my phone when I looked up and low and behold a truck full of model 3’s was driving next to me :rolleyes: unfortunately couldn’t spot the VINs surfside

Given the high yield market backed up this week as part of the risk off trade, I think this sounds about right and would agree that this is somewhat aggressive given Tesla's rating. Have you heard any guesstimate as to when it will be priced? The sooner the better in these volatile markets...

You are absolutely correct that having access to IG-type rates and being rated IG are two separate things; I was just clarifying that we cannot reasonably expect Tesla's credit ratings to migrate so quickly. In my mind it is too early to assume that Tesla is going to get Netflix-like treatment...

The ratings agencies are much more focused on debt / EBITDA vs. debt / equity, so profitable earnings from the Model 3 on an EBITDA basis is the key to significant access to the public bond markets. I would agree that Tesla could/should tap the debt markets again next year, but it will likely...

While Tesla's EBITDA is likely going to ramp rather quickly (and therefore the Company's debt / EBITDA will decline dramatically), it is extremely unlikely that the ratings agencies (e.g. Moody's) will upgrade Tesla from being rated B3 to Baa3 in one year. That said, they could certainly...

Agreed @SBenson re: your prediction of the rough coupon in the ~5% range. Personally, I'm pleased to see they aren't issuing convertible bonds again; no dilution is just one reason. Other benefits include the fact that the convertible bond market isn't nearly as deep as the high yield bond...

My prediction: -within one month of the pricing of the proposed $1.5 billion of unsecured notes, Morgan Stanley will upgrade TSLA to overweight. I'm just reading between the lines -- Adam Jonas out with a bullish new note this morning calling the model 3 a big disruptor; I think once they...

@luvb2b, you taking a crack at working on 2Q earnings estimates, or not worth the effort given the lack of upside potential given disappointing deliveries and unlikely SCTY large positive contribution? I'd be curious for your thoughts on TSLA at this point given large run up and back down...

Not much time to post but I can clear things up - Baird's note just included a reiteration of getting to a 5k run rate (equivalent to 250k per year) by the end of 2017. Classic case of journalists butchering the original content of a note. surfside EDIT to add: not sure if it has been already...

Not true - there was a new Baird note yesterday following management meetings. surfside

I think a lot of folks are in a similar situation; I'm currently evaluating selling calls at one strike higher than my jan 2019 LEAPs to allow myself to get long term capital gains treatment on my long calls -- you can see more discussion on this topic in the trading strategies thread... surfside

If the stock drops and i sell those calls less than a year out at a gain, I will indeed have to pay short term capital gains on those calls. If this happens, i am happy to pay short term capital gains on the portion of my "gain" that i would have lost by not selling those calls; if the stock...

@MitchJi, to make it really simple, i would like to deleverage my TSLA position somewhat through selling my Jan 2018 LEAPs given i) the significant increase in share price, ii) the potential risk of delays/issues with model 3 production having a material impact on the share price at a time when...

I'm proposing selling calls, which would move in the opposite direction of the long calls I hold (therefore I would effectively lock in the size of my gain today but allow myself to get long term capital gains for the existing gain by being able to hold until after one year has passed). surfside

Ok, I wanted to circle back to this discussion, as I finally heard back from my tax advisor regarding constructive sales. Here were the two scenarios that I sent my tax advisor: And here is the response I got from my tax advisor: For reference, here is the language re: constructive sales...

Totally understood - I really appreciate the insight you have already provided. I will consult with my tax advisor and report back what I learn. surfside

Thanks so much for the detailed response @neroden -- I've been meaning to ask the following question regarding your comments -- given I am dealing with 2019 LEAPs, do I still have to close the hedge transaction that I open this year, or would both the hedge (selling Jan 19 LEAPs) and the...

Well you can't say we didn't try! The dramatic drop in NCI's is surprising to say the least; I just got off a conference call so I haven't had a chance to sort through where else we missed (looks like no ZEV credit sales and only $35 of Q4 EAP revenue recognition, which was offset by a taketa...

so UBS did update their EPS estimates 2017; Q1 was revised from -0.39 to -0.90 and the subsequent quarters were actually revised upwards such that their full year FYE 2017 estimate remains unchanged at -2.90. They are still forecasting NCI's at $338 for the full year FYE 2017. No change to the...

interesting tidbit - Paulo Santos just published an article indicating he closed his short position last week given the potential impact of the NCI's, calling it a short trap... You can bet he is kicking himself for not closing his short on April 4th when he wrote his article about Tesla's hand...

Totally agreed. With where the stock is at heading into ER (at least as of close today), this is going to be an interesting earnings, that is for sure. Something AIMc mentioned/posted in another thread got me thinking though, and that is what folks view as "consensus" going into earnings...

so I caught up with my broker and they confirmed that it is not possible to hold both the long and short side of an options contract. thinking that I am likely to just sell the next highest strike price to create a (very small) bull call spread. now I just have to decide if/when to make the...

i appreciate the sentiment; still think it is worth evaluating my strategy going into earnings. I'm inclined to agree with you, but i have been thinking through what to do from a tax perspective over the course of this year and i'm curious to understand whether or not there are flaws in my...

This question should probably be in the beginners options trading thread, but figured i would go ahead and post here, as it is a potential trading strategy (i guess): -Let's say I have J19 LEAPs that have significant gains that I would like to sell but would be subject to short term capital...

so one of the things that has been bugging me since the 4Q 2016 earnings call was elon's comments about the model 3 when pressed about a final reveal -- here is the exchange with the analysts: "It's going to be pretty close to what I showed at the Model 3 unveiling, but with more polish and...

while i historically haven't been a frequent poster, i've enjoyed contributing to the Q1 2017 thread, and i have been thinking for a while that it would be helpful to have one place where we could keep track of upcoming catalysts that could impact TSLA (whether positively or negatively); ideally...

I just double checked the numbers, and they are right: -0.39 GAAP 1Q2017 EPS after taking into account NCI's. Their full year GAAP EPS for 2017 is -2.90 based on -477 of GAAP net income after 338 of NCI's (full year GAAP net income of -815 before NCI's). surfside

what I find most interesting about your table (thanks for picking up what I started and making it way better btw) is that UBS (of all people!) has the highest EPS forecast excluding NCI's. Given some of Colin's other thoughts/research (i'm thinking primarily of the recent note re: supercharger...

@luvb2b thanks for confirming - when I saw the following comment, I assumed you thought UBS's estimate of NCI's of $338 was just for 1Q 2017. I didn't take the time to run the math on the numbers - apologies.

@luvb2b just realized in reading your latest update that misread my comment re: UBS's estimate of NCI's - the $338 number is their estimate for the full year of NCI's for 2017, not 1Q2017. UBS didn't provide a breakdown by quarter. As a result, UBS should not be at the top of your chart...

@luvb2b good catch on the Morgan Stanley numbers -- I had input Q1 2016 numbers instead of Q1 2017. Sorry about that. Taking a look at Morgan Stanley's most recent note that includes a model (which is the note "The Real Surprise with the Model 3"), here is what I show: Q1 2017 -1.94 GAAP EPS...

You're absolutely welcome -- looking forward to your revised thoughts. Also, I checked and I am not seeing the latest JP Morgan report on Capital IQ; I will post here if/when it shows up. My Capital IQ is funny -- there isn't any rhyme or reason as to why some reports come through and others...

Capital IQ doesn't have the note posted as of yet; I will post in the 1Q 2017 thread if and when I get access. surfside

Ok, so here is my compilation of the various equity research analyst Q1 2017 forecasts (I've also noted which ones forecast NCI's): BankPrice TargetQ1 GAAP EPSQ1 non-GAAP EPS Operating Income Net IncomeInclude any NCI's?Comments Barclays$165n/a-1.07 -199 -173 non-GAAP Non/a Deutsche...

i've posted my compilation of equity analysts' Q1 forecasts in the Q1 results thread here. surfside

Ok so I've gone through all of the equity research reports that I have access to in detail; some interesting findings -- seems I missed a couple other NCI forecasts in my haste looking through the reports yesterday. But before I can post the details, I really need to know how to make a table...

So I've read and re-read that language about five times now, and I'm trying to wrap my head around what they are suggesting in that language. In layman terms, it seems like they are saying that large losses to non-controlling interests are happening because the fair value of the projects in a...

Based on my understanding, I don't think you got the first part right -- when SolarCity is building a new system, the installation and panel costs are capitalized (they show up in the cash flow statement as capex), not expensed. Revenues and expenses are then recognized over the life of the...

From the reports that I looked at yesterday, only Raymond James actually broke out NCIs as a separate line item, so I don't think it is possible to know whether the others are using some kind of assumption about NCIs but just aren't breaking it out as a line item, or whether they are just...

I searched a little more, and Ben Kallo from Baird (one of the more bullish equity research analysts, who also happened to previously cover SolarCity before Tesla bought it) doesn't bother to forecast NCI's in his modeling either. Interestingly enough, looking back to one of his last reports on...

Great idea and interesting to get confirmation of that number (especially from an institution with a bearish view like Goldman). I have access to some equity research through Capital IQ, but wasn't able to find any other models with projections of SolarCity's NCI's. Morgan Stanley posts their...

you're welcome - the least I could do given all the work everyone else has done. I think you are right re: accelerated depreciation - this make the "losses" even bigger. Something I am somewhat concerned about is that i'm not sure even the equity research analysts are going to understand...

I'm not super excited to do so, but perhaps I will do some reading on hlbv. I'll look back at your old posts to find the links for my pleasure reading. In the meantime, here is my stab at trying to put in plain words what is going on with SolarCity's financials (including the non-controlling...

I tend to agree (which is a big reason why I didn't invest in SolarCity as a standalone entity), but like it or not we now have to deal with the complicated SolarCity accounting, and I appreciate @luvb2b for all his hard work trying to understand the likely impact on Tesla's financials. I know...