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2022: The Year of Domination for SpaceX
- Thread starter Grendal
- Start date
Any way to estimate how much of that upmass is their own, i.e. Starlink?
Hang on, something is wrong with that chart; I don’t see Blue Origin shown.
It appears that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard put more mass into orbit this year than BO.
It appears that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard put more mass into orbit this year than BO.
This is an interesting outcome of the first-principles thinking process that Elon espouses, In addition to driving technical design and implementation ("the best part is no part"), it also defines the results they aim for. He has long said that what ultimately matters fir getting to Mars is "cost per pound of mass to orbit". The end result of that are things like reusability, reliability, simplification, etc... all of that ends up making it extremely practical and cost-effective, and I believe that's in large part why we see things like those charts...
It would be interesting to see aggregate cost each provider charged for each period as well...
It would be interesting to see aggregate cost each provider charged for each period as well...
Good question. How much of this is customer including govt payloads vs SpaceX own payload
While interesting, be aware that this split does not affect SpaceX economics since Starlink generates revenue. So both Starlink and third party launches are paid for. Indeed, the Starlink launches might actually be more lucrative to SpaceX than the third party launches in the end. Certainly, they’ve allowed SpaceX is raise lots of investment $$.
Looking up the data, there have been 33 Starlink and 26 commercial launches this year.
The average seems to be about 50 Stalink satellites per launch at 14,750 kg (32,520 lb).
So that means that SpaceX Starlink sats have an upmass of 486,750 kg (1,073,160 lb.) out of the total so far. The numbers at the beginning of this thread have only the first three quarters of the year.
The total for SpaceX above is 487,062 kg. So the obvious conclusion is that 3/4 of the upmass for the year will be for Starlinks.
There are two more launches, if they launch as expected, for the year.
Of course. Telecom companies make their initial investments back over 10+ years. But the money rolls in eventually. Even if Starlink were to only break even or even make a loss, it would still have been worth it since it funded the development of Starship.
I seem to remember some article that mentioned a tweet from Elon saying how he expects Starlink to start making profit by the middle of next year.
61 successful launches
56 launches were reused
4 launches were new
1 launch of FH
72.6% of successful American orbital rockets were launched by SpaceX
34.3% of the world's successful orbital rockets were launched by SpaceX
3 Crew launches with 12 astronauts
100% of boosters were recovered that attempted recovery (3 were intentionally lost)
Most fairings used were reused fairings
83.93% of launches had at least one reused fairing
SpaceX currently has a stable of 21 boosters (15 F9, 6 FH assigned)
56 launches were reused
4 launches were new
1 launch of FH
72.6% of successful American orbital rockets were launched by SpaceX
34.3% of the world's successful orbital rockets were launched by SpaceX
3 Crew launches with 12 astronauts
100% of boosters were recovered that attempted recovery (3 were intentionally lost)
Most fairings used were reused fairings
83.93% of launches had at least one reused fairing
SpaceX currently has a stable of 21 boosters (15 F9, 6 FH assigned)
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And the number that Elon keeps reminding us that is important in tonnage to orbit. If we calculated those numbers, SpaceX would be even more of a clear world leader.
61 launches in 2022 vs. 31 in 2021, so nearly 100% growth. 67 on the books now for 2023. Can they hit 50% growth, so 92? Where did that number come from...
At this point, the limiting factor for SpaceX is launch sites and weather. SpaceX has three sites and the two in Florida are limited by other companies also wanting to launch. The weather in Florida and the West Coast is always an issue that causes delays. We'll see how many they manage to pull off but 92 seems a bit much with the outside limitations they have to fight against.
At some point. Currently, SpaceX is limited to a maximum of 12 launches a year from there.
