Advice Please: Buy my facelifted '16 or sample some new hotness?

[Jumper]

Hi gang,

I'm on month 30 of a lease on a post-refresh 2016 Model S*.

Tesla sales is offering to let me out of my lease early if I take delivery of a new S, X, or Performance 3 by EoY.

Trying to figure out if I should:

1. Buy my own car in 6 months. (Residual/Cost would be 59k. Similar spec car now selling on CPO for ~63k)

2. Lease into a brand new S.

3. Buy a new S now. (and get tax credit.)

4. Buy a Performance 3 now (and get tax credit).

5. Buy a regular ol' 3 in 6-12 months (and not get tax credit).

Appreciate your perspectives folks!


*Specs are: 90D | Blue | Tan | Refresh | Matte Obeche | AP | Pano | Premium | Subzero | Jump Seats

 

[sidmini]

4) get the M3P ! but will space be OK for you?

 

[MorrisonHiker]

The tax credit doesn't go away at the end of the year. It will still be available all of 2019. It just won't be $7500.

 

[Troy]

I voted for waiting because major hardware changes are expected soon.

• For example, the Model 3 has a track mode and the Model S doesn't. My guess is that's because the Model 3 battery has a more powerful cooling. See the article here.
• In addition, there is an EPA document that shows the Model 3 supports up to 525A. See page 9 here. That means 525A*350V= 183,750 W= 184 kW. In other words, if Supercharge power increases from 120 kW to 180 kW, then Model 3 will already support that but Model S/X might not. This suggests a new pack design for S/X with more powerful cooling.
• Also, the S/X might get the same air vents the Model 3 and Roadster 2020 have.
• Another detail is the AP3.0 hardware. Yes, there will be a path to upgrade from AP2.0 or 2.5 to AP 3.0 but that's only free for people who have paid for FSD. However, if you wait, then you will get AP3.0 hardware as standard. If Enhanced Autopilot works better with AP3.0 hardware than AP 2/2.5, then waiting will be an advantage.

 

[Lifeinabox]

P3D no contest.

 

[PhilDavid]

If you are okay with the smaller size, go for the P3D.

It will make little sense for you to buy your lease car as they add the $7,500 back to the residual if you exercise that option.

 

[Eevee]

Well, the fact that you're asking suggests you want something different.