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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
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Here's why I sold at market open today... (note: I bought August calls at various strikes yesterday because I thought we had a decent chance of a short squeeze).
- after listening to the earnings call, it was evident there was no short squeeze possible.
- revenue guidance concerning because already production capped, so limited revenue growth over next several months at least. In other words, we're not going to see huge revenue growth over the next several months from SPWR, thus in my investment paradigm it moves from a high-growth stock to a moderate-growth stock in the near-term. Thus, stock price gets hit.
- $100m pull-forward from second half. If you listened to the earnings call, they pulled forward revenue from second half. This is concerning to me because why did they have to pull forward $100m? Sure, there are different views on this, but it's still concerning because if they hadn't pulled forward $100m then they would Q2 would be a $80m loss and a huge earnings disappointment. I personally didn't like how the management tried to spin the quarter as a huge success when the analysts are on the call were clearly doubtful.
- in general, the stock market offers other high-growth stock opportunities, and when SPWR shows some weakness (this is what they showed in the earnings call IMO) w/revenue, pull-forward, production caps, etc., then I think it can signal to funds/institutions to pull money out of the stock into other high-growth opportunities (ie., other stock). (note: don't get me wrong, they also showed strength as well with high gross margins, raising eps guidance, etc. But the points of weakness they showed still show an adjustment of their growth trajectory IMO.)
- overall, I don't doubt SPWR is a good company or that it has a good mid or long term future as a stock. Just in the short term, I think the stock could get hit w/funds and institutions not impressed by Q2 results and potential of revenue growth, thus moving money out.
- lastly, though I don't doubt SPWR is a good company (their panels are very, very good and they have lots of fans), I do doubt that they're a stellar company. In the long-term, I believe in SCTY's model more and thus I'm not willing to risk more loss in SPWR considering I see significant downside risk.
- i sold my august calls at market open because i thought the stock was going to stabilize in the coming weeks at $20-25 (this is just my opinion) as funds pull money but the stock/company gives little incentive for new investors to come on board.
Note: I don't want this to be a post to scare people to sell SPWR. If you researched SPWR and solar thoroughly I would stick with what you know. These are just comments on why I sold this morning. I'm willing to expand on any of the thoughts if anyone wishes.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Excellent analysis indeed. I'm holding my SPWR stock and Jan '15 options for the long term but not adding anything right now. I'll revisit SPWR come next earnings.
-9% this is getting serious, my margin call will kick in when we get to 11%, hoping for a change
Already 5k in the red
try to hang in there until the selling subsides and perhaps, next week, good earnings reports from Sune, fslr, and scty could lift spwr.
indeed, I'm down 1k. going to hand in there. once they realize that the reason they low balled the 3rd quarter is because their factories are at 100% and their objective to continue to lower expenses that in turn will end up with higher profits. we should get up pressure... at least that is my hope.
kevin99
Member
I guess I don't know SPWR enough to take the risk so I did the safest thing possible, I opened a naked put position yesterday for Aug Put @25. Even with the selling today, I am breaking even. I might roll into further OTM put. This is the first of 2 trades that I touch the Solar stocks in a long time after getting burned by FSLR last year. I did the same with SCTY and it is pretty safe.
Norse
Active Member
"SPWR still has plenty of fans on Wall Street, as well, as Credit Suisse, Baird, and Northland all upped their respective 12-month price targets on the shares earlier today. What's more, further price-target hikes could be in the cards; the current consensus view of $22.99 sits below the stock's current price, even following today's decline."
Havent seen that credit suisse one, but I know they have been sceptical before.
Havent seen that credit suisse one, but I know they have been sceptical before.
Here is Goldman's take on the recent qtr: http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/SunPower+%28SPWR%29+Valuation+Already+Reflects+Positives%2C+Says+Goldman+Sachs/8557689.html?si_client=st
I didn't think the GS report was that bad....price target was raised from $20 to $22...seems to remind me of the GS "downgrade" of tsla several weeks ago and look how that turned out.
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Summary from Barron's of all the analysts commentary on spwr's recent qtr:
SunPower Drops 13% Even as Estimates, Targets Rise - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com
and IBDs recent article:
SunPower Dives - Solar Stocks' Dangerfield Moment? SPWR - Investors.com
and motley fool calling it a flawless qtr:
SunPower Shows Its Dominance in Solar (SPWR)
If it makes anybody feel better, I'm going down with the Sep 30 Calls ship. I did however install a stop on my stock to lock in gains, that was tripped fairly early this morning. I'm down overall but that help the bleeding. Hopefully there's a turnaround before theta does any damage.
Shoulda coulda woulda bought puts.
Shoulda coulda woulda bought puts.
kevin99
Member
Even my safest play - the naked Aug put @25 got stopped out. I took a loss.
However I set the exit as one trigger another trade. So I sold the Aug put @23. Seems fine to to me. Should be able to recoup the lost on the Aug put @25.
However I set the exit as one trigger another trade. So I sold the Aug put @23. Seems fine to to me. Should be able to recoup the lost on the Aug put @25.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
It's been very quiet over here all of a sudden. People licking their wounds? Perhaps it's helpful to post your today's losses so we sympathize. Mine is not too bad, my SPWR stocks lost 12.48%, my Jan '15 calls 22.95%. It's all on paper though so no real money lost yet. Also, TSLA had a good day today, and most here probably hold TSLA as well. So you lose some, you win some. :smile:
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