Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

[sleepyhead]

Anyone else here like CSIQ as much as I do?

I am extremely overweight CSIQ in my portfolios, e.g. 60% of my 401k is now in CSIQ (after selling off a little bit of my SOL after the nice run-up).

It looks to me like this stock is forming a beautiful rounded bottom technical pattern. If this thing breaks above ~$16.50 on high volume, then it will be off to the races. Mid 20's will be my price target if this works out.

You can wait till the breakout trade happens before getting in, but it looks very plausible to me. My fundamental analysis supports a $20+ price target as well.

The risk here once again is a global recession, which I don't see likely in the next 12 months.

edit: The rounded bottom pattern is two and a half years in the making.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Anyone else here like CSIQ as much as I do?

I am extremely overweight CSIQ in my portfolios, e.g. 60% of my 401k is now in CSIQ (after selling off a little bit of my SOL after the nice run-up).

It looks to me like this stock is forming a beautiful rounded bottom technical pattern. If this thing breaks above ~$16.50 on high volume, then it will be off to the races. Mid 20's will be my price target if this works out.

You can wait till the breakout trade happens before getting in, but it looks very plausible to me. My fundamental analysis supports a $20+ price target as well.

The risk here once again is a global recession, which I don't see likely in the next 12 months.

edit: The rounded bottom pattern is two and a half years in the making.

Sounds tempting to increase my holdings. I have a little bit of it. I haven't done enough of my own research to put a lot of money into it. TSLA takes up most of my time...

Edit: Thank you for your insight!

 

[AudubonB]

I have a half-weight position in CSIQ. It certainly has held up better over the past two(??) months than some of the other high-profile names in the sector, although cherry-picking data points can be a way to fool no one but oneself.....

 

[DaveT]

Anyone else here like CSIQ as much as I do?

I am extremely overweight CSIQ in my portfolios, e.g. 60% of my 401k is now in CSIQ (after selling off a little bit of my SOL after the nice run-up).

It looks to me like this stock is forming a beautiful rounded bottom technical pattern. If this thing breaks above ~$16.50 on high volume, then it will be off to the races. Mid 20's will be my price target if this works out.

You can wait till the breakout trade happens before getting in, but it looks very plausible to me. My fundamental analysis supports a $20+ price target as well.

The risk here once again is a global recession, which I don't see likely in the next 12 months.

edit: The rounded bottom pattern is two and a half years in the making.

Hey sleepy, I like CSIQ as well (but don't have any position as of yet), and I agree with you on the possible breakout point. My favorite Chinese solars are TSL, SOL and CSIQ (I'm currently still riding SOL with options).

 

[Norse]

SOL:
http://www.nasdaq.com/press-release...tified-for-tuv-sud-pid-testing-20130909-00096
and http://www.nasdaq.com/press-release...er-34-mw-of-panasonic-projects-20130910-00121

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Wow, SCTY jumped up at open. Up over 5% ATM.

Edit: could be just anything, but maybe it's this: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/direct-energy-solarcity-sign-multimillion-130000482.html

 

[ggies07]

Wow, SCTY jumped up at open. Up over 5% ATM.

Edit: could be just anything, but maybe it's this: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/direct-energy-solarcity-sign-multimillion-130000482.html

Very nice. Thanks for the article.

 

[borat99]

I just woke up... dangggg! SCTY! What's going on there?

 

[Bonken]

I just woke up... dangggg! SCTY! What's going on there?

New financing deal for solar city..
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/direct-energy-solarcity-sign-multimillion-130000482.html

discussion in this thread tho http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...or-Discussions-(formerly-SCTY-thread)/page101

 

[InTheShadows]

I'm kicking myself. I forgot I created a GTC order yesterday to sell half my SCTY sept calls when they doubled in value from my cost. So when that actually happened this am I sold half my calls. So 1/2 + 1/2 = sadness today. Oh we'll live and learn.

 

[sleepyhead]

I'm kicking myself. I forgot I created a GTC order yesterday to sell half my SCTY sept calls when they doubled in value from my cost. So when that actually happened this am I sold half my calls. So 1/2 + 1/2 = sadness today. Oh we'll live and learn.

No worries, you did the right thing. You sold half, got your capital back in less than a week, and now you can ride the other half of your options risk free!

You might end up being correct, but in my opinion there will be a fast bounce off the bottom and I would expect a 30% - 50% gain in a matter of days/weeks depending on how low SCTY goes. The lower it goes the more violent the bounce back up will be. I don't see any periods of consolidation before it recovers.

That's why I am comfortable buying at these levels, because even if it keeps going down below $25 (it won't) then it will bounce back quickly above $30 in no time.

I wrote that last Wednesday, when SCTY bottomed. It is up already 20% from Wednesday's low. They say not to try to catch a falling knife, but it is so rewarding when you time it right. The flip side of not trying to catch a falling knife is that you would have missed out on the first 20% move up.

I always try to catch falling knives. That is my style of investing. The key to using this strategy is to do it only when you know that the down move doesn't make much sense. E.g. TSLA is going down like crazy because the entire market is correcting (I know that TSLA is actually a very low beta stock and doesn't move with the market, but this is just for illustrative purposes). But you know that we are still in a bull market because the economic indicators are telling you exactly that. So you try to catch TSLA on the way down, and be prepared to buy more if it keeps falling. In the end it will bounce back for sure, because the markets will recover shortly.

On the other hand if Tesla announces that it has to halt production for an indefinite amount of time for some serious reason, then I would not try to catch that falling knife.

 

[kevin99]

One of my biggest blunders. Yesterday I set a bracket order to sell SCTY that was acquired when my naked put went under water. Somehow in the last 20 minutes it touch the $29.80 bottom price and my 10,000 shares were all sold in a hurry! The primary goal of selling it is getting the buying power back.

Now I am looking at $40k difference just in 2 trading hours?? The only consolation I have is some Nov calls I left. Those I don't need to bother as they don't take much buying power. What a flop! Good that my TSLA ship is doing well.

 

[InTheShadows]

No worries, you did the right thing. You sold half, got your capital back in less than a week, and now you can ride the other half of your options risk free!

only now I don't have any calls, I sold both halves. . I created. Limit order when it doubled to sell the half and I forgot I placed the GTC yesterday.

 

[Snoopie]

I have a sept 21 call @ 34. I can't read where the top on this thing will be. I'm at the point of thinking about taking my profits (don't get greedy strategy) but hate jumping off the rocketship when it is still under power. Any ideas on where the best exit point on this call would be???

 

[Citizen-T]

Holy Hell, SCTY.

...

That's all.

 

[Royal TS(LA)]

Looks like my estimation about SCTY bottoming out at ~$29 was dead on. And some profit was taken (I'm still learning the game, though ).

 

[AudubonB]

Oh Lordy, Lordy,
Here comes $40

!!!

Way to go SCTY. Wow.

My understanding - very vague - is that Direct Energy is among the largest of the utility "brokers" that have transformed the traditional concept of a captive market for a local utility monopoly. Regardless of how they do in fact operate, the take-away importance of this, I believe, is that it shows how an entity like Solar City has alternative channels for funding than the $500mm GS financing (which also is a good thing).


Not a bad morning for my second-largest position (after TSLA)!

 

[Gtoffo]

Holy Hell, SCTY.

...

That's all.

My gain today beats any of the single day gains I've got with Tesla in the last two years.............a large chunk of it was just recovering from what we had lost in the last month but I'm not complaining.

 

[Norse]

My scty options up 2000% shame I only had 4

Wasnt there a guy with alot of sep Calls that we adviced not to sell? Hope he didnt.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

SCTY=wow today. I wish I had calls in SCTY, even if it were only 4! I'm actually just glad I didn't sell my stock. I was thinking of selling at 30 just to ease the bleeding but am so glad I held on. Still overall red, I originally bought in around $39, haha.

SOL got hit hard today all thing considered...looks like it really tried to break $6 and when it didn't it sold off the rest of the day?