Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

[sleepyhead]

If anyone was waiting to get in on JKS, this might be the time. Credit Suisse analyst just upgraded to $32, and the stock is 6% off it's intraday high an is sitting now at $24.66.

If I wanted more JKS, I would be buying here. The odds are in the long's favor. Plus they are going to have a very profitable Q3, Q4, FY14, etc.

That is all you can do is play the odds.

Thanks for the tip sleepyhead, I went ahead and bought some more when the price was around $24.60.

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Anyone one else find it interesting that csiq is the only chinese solar company with jan 16 options. In fact, the only other solar company I can find that has jan 16 options is solar city. Furthermore, only a handful of companies have jan 15 options, with the majority of Chinese companies having only march or April as the furthest expiration date. I am heavily invested in csiq and would like additional exposure to jaso and jks, but it looks like the only choices are march, April 14 options vs. shares.

CSIQ only had Apr14's, but a month ago they added the J15's and J16's. I don't know who decides to add these, but usually the "better" companies get these first.

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After writing down my JKS comment, I quickly realized that it really is a good idea to buy some. So I found a way to get some capital and quickly bought in.

I noticed that I have been giving good tips on this board and not always following them myself; almost always because I am already 100% invested and never have capital lying around.

This time I couldn't pass up on the unwarranted mid-day pullback in JKS and capitalized on it.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

I'm somewhat bothered that CSIQ has as max strike $22 for the Jan 2016, that's ATM and I'd rather buy some OTM calls. Also if it went up even more there's nothing to hedge with...

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Thanks for the tip sleepyhead, I went ahead and bought some more when the price was around $24.60.

Tell me this was a joke Or at least serious level of irony for finally following your own advice

 

[sleepyhead]

Tell me this was a joke Or at least serious level of irony for finally following your own advice

It was a joke. I actually wrote the tip so that whoever was thinking about buying JKS at some point could now get in.

Then I thought about it for a second and realized it really was a good time to buy JKS. So I bought some JKS about a minute after I posted the tip.

Therefore, I took advantage of my own tip that I posted here. So I thanked myself :wink:

Sorry, lack of sleep :tongue:

 

[ongba]

I'm somewhat bothered that CSIQ has as max strike $22 for the Jan 2016, that's ATM and I'd rather buy some OTM calls. Also if it went up even more there's nothing to hedge with...

Agree. For that very reason, I went with jan '15 30 strike leaps which I can hedge with 35 strikes if needed.

 

[fjm9898]

I was looking at JKS sleepy and i just couldnt jump on it. I used the rest of my capital on JASO a couple days back when it was on the $9s. Sadly this upgrade came a day to early as my AMD money will be coming to me tomorrow and i could of hopped in JKS with it, like i was planning.

 

[ongba]

I know a lot of people on this board like the risk free delayed construct bull call spread strategy. With solar being so volatile, I wonder if a delayed construct straddle/strangle with LEAPS would be a successful strategy. Take csiq for example. Buy 1 jan 15 call at strike 30 and 1 jan 15 put at strike 15. Since solar and csiq are so volatile, one should be able to hedge both options for risk free, hence guaranteeing a profit as opposed to just breaking even. Thoughts?

 

[clmason]

Anyone buying/holding Mutual Funds who focus on Solar industry?
I found Guggenheim Solar ETF (Symbol TAN) which holds 30 Solar stocks.

Top Holdings has a few familiar names:
1) HANERGY SOLAR GROUP LTD 6.8%
2) SOLARCITY CORP 5.6%
3) FIRST SOLAR INC 5.5%
4) TRINA SOLAR LTD 5.2%
5) GCL-POLY ENERGY HOLDINGS LTD 5.18%
6) SUNPOWER CORP 4.9%
7) CANADIAN SOLAR INC 4.88%

I like the ability to gain exposure to so many individual companies in the sector.

Thoughts?

 

[AlMc]

Well, when I looked at my account this evening I realize that I have almost an equal amount of $ in solar (CSIQ, SCTY, and JKS) as in TSLA. I want to thank everyone on this thread for sharing their knowledge so freely. I am not 'all in' as I am saving a little buying power for a 10% TSLA pullback or 20% solar pullback.....neither of which may come.

Al

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Thanks for the tip sleepyhead, I went ahead and bought some more when the price was around $24.60.

I got some at $24.60 also! I didn't even read your post as I was at work and I was too busy to read the forums. I was sneaking a peak at JKS all day and was sad I hadn't gotten in earlier but right when it was at that low point around $24.50 I decided that it was good as any other time to buy in (it was at where it gapped up to beginning of day). By the time I logged in to my brokerage the order executed at $24.60.

I can't thank you for your post as I didn't see it! I wish I saw your post, because I would've bought 1000 shares instead of 500! I wasn't sure of myself but am quite pleased with how the rest of the day went!

I will thank you though for all the research you share with us and your posts and everything else. My wife makes fun of me because I'm mentioning your posts all the time. I've learned a ton since I bought my first ever stock (TSLA) back in January. I'm even making the same trades as you now! I know everyone else has been thanking you but I wanted to as well.

 

[justdoit]

I got some at $24.60 also! I didn't even read your post as I was at work and I was too busy to read the forums. I was sneaking a peak at JKS all day and was sad I hadn't gotten in earlier but right when it was at that low point around $24.50 I decided that it was good as any other time to buy in (it was at where it gapped up to beginning of day). By the time I logged in to my brokerage the order executed at $24.60.

I can't thank you for your post as I didn't see it! I wish I saw your post, because I would've bought 1000 shares instead of 500! I wasn't sure of myself but am quite pleased with how the rest of the day went!

I will thank you though for all the research you share with us and your posts and everything else. My wife makes fun of me because I'm mentioning your posts all the time. I've learned a ton since I bought my first ever stock (TSLA) back in January. I'm even making the same trades as you now! I know everyone else has been thanking you but I wanted to as well.

Haha. Same here. Have been looking at JKS all day and trying to find the right moment to buy in. Was away when I checked my phone (like I do a million times) and saw JKS down but just don't have the capital (or time) to buy some! I was actually thinking that if I was at my desk I'd probably post here and see if others also thought it was a good time to buy or if there was a reason for the pull back. Reading this now and seeing sleepy's advice makes me wish there was a better mobile version of this site so I could check it non stop even when I'm not at my desk

Thanks for your posts sleepy. Really motivating me to spend more time and research solar.

 

[JRP3]

It was a joke.

Whew, I thought you were having a psychotic break.
"This guy on TMC seems to have a good handle on solar stocks, but now he's talking to himself..." :biggrin:

 

[kenliles]

Whew, I thought you were having a psychotic break.
"This guy on TMC seems to have a good handle on solar stocks, but now he's talking to himself..." :biggrin:

getting too much sun...

 

[AlMc]

getting too much sun...

That joke I get! I was also worried about Sleepy...I almost sold all my solar thinking he had gone over to the 'dark side'

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Whew, I thought you were having a psychotic break.
"This guy on TMC seems to have a good handle on solar stocks, but now he's talking to himself..." :biggrin:

If anyone cares I thought it was hilarious. Mostly because I feel like only a few of us take sleepy's advice and he's been driven crazy by newbies not buying when he recommends it and asking 50% gain later "is it too late now to buy?"

I am such a newbie but I think I learned my lesson.

 

[sleepyhead]

If anyone cares I thought it was hilarious. Mostly because I feel like only a few of us take sleepy's advice and he's been driven crazy by newbies not buying when he recommends it and asking 50% gain later "is it too late now to buy?"

So true, thanks.

I actually wrote the tip for someone to take advantage. Only after I wrote it did I realize that it is an excellent idea so I quickly bought myself on my own tip (if that makes sense).

Therefore, the only reason I ended up buying JKS was because I put it in writing first. This made me realize that it was indeed a great idea.

That is not to say that JKS will continue going up tomorrow and next week, but now the odds are significantly in the favor of the longs. And if you bought at $24.60 you already have a 6% cushion, which makes your odds exponentially better.

Technically speaking, it is a buy as well. High volume breakout above $25 resistance, new 52-week high, analyst upgrade, higher highs, and lower lows.

I hear that they might have a very good ER as well.

I think this is the beginning of another mini run up for JKS before Q3.

 

[Radsvision]

Sleepy,

I am new to options and will be doing a lot of reading. In the mean while, I am looking to start positions in a number of solar stocks you had mentioned, specifically CSIQ, JASO and JKS. Could you give me an example options trade you would make with those companies or should I be buying the shares at today's prices and hold for the long run?

 

[borat99]

Radsvision,

I'll save sleepy some time since he has responded to this kind of question many times. There are also several more like this earlier in this thread.

See Alternative Energy Investor Discussions (formerly SCTY thread) - Page 137

 

[skandy]

... Reading this now and seeing sleepy's advice makes me wish there was a better mobile version of this site so I could check it non stop even when I'm not at my desk

Check out tapatalk app - it is awesome (actually typing this message on it). Makes it following forums on the go super convenient.

 

[Gtoffo]

Anyone buying/holding Mutual Funds who focus on Solar industry?
I found Guggenheim Solar ETF (Symbol TAN) which holds 30 Solar stocks.

Top Holdings has a few familiar names:
1) HANERGY SOLAR GROUP LTD 6.8%
2) SOLARCITY CORP 5.6%
3) FIRST SOLAR INC 5.5%
4) TRINA SOLAR LTD 5.2%
5) GCL-POLY ENERGY HOLDINGS LTD 5.18%
6) SUNPOWER CORP 4.9%
7) CANADIAN SOLAR INC 4.88%

I like the ability to gain exposure to so many individual companies in the sector.

Thoughts?

I actually was thinking about looking for a similar ETF earlier....as I said before, I don't have the resources to follow every one of those stocks but I want to be exposed to the upside of the general "(chinese) solar" trend. This might be a lower risk strategy than trying to pick the winners in the sector and risking being affected by a single negative event.

TAN looks pretty good. Any other options? I've never actually invested in an ETF. Do derivatives on ETFs have "different" rules than normal derivatives? Would love to hear some of the other guys commenting on this. Solar Master Sleepy's opinion?

I believe in the commoditization of panels in the long run, that's why I like SCTY's story. But in the next 1-2 years at least, most of those producers will see big gains as demand goes up and supply grows at a slower pace.