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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
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What is the short interest in CSIQ? 7% or something like that? Why is this guy saying solar is in a bubble when PE for CSIQ for example is near 12 or so..? Just because a stock has run up a lot does not mean its about to collapse. It could correct some due to profit taking but as long as the growth is there, company is making money, and it's trading at a reasonable "growth type" PE I feel comfy being in it. What is dude smokin?
actually if you assume institutional holders aren't shorting, it more like 9% of float;
total FUD-
Here is what I wrote in my megapost thread as someone asked me for my opinion on this, but it belongs here:
This guy is spewing typical FUD on solar. Solar stocks up 300%, therefore they must come down. The only reason they are up so much is because they were priced below $100m market cap on $1b+ in sales. CSIQ is up 1400% in the last 12 months.
I know its FUD when he says 60GW of capacity and less than 40GW of Demand. That 60GW of capacity has been thrown around for 3 years now, and actual capacity is a lot lower. Mothballed capacity cannot come on-line because it is outdated and would need $millions to get the lines updated, which they can't afford to do because Chinese banks are not borrowing to losers and only tier 1 companies get loans. Actual module capacity is 45GW according to solarbuzz. And demand might hit 50GW next year according to them. The most likely scenario is a shortage of panels, which will lead to huge profits.
In order to produce modules, you need cells, which require wafers, which require polysilicon. According to Deutsche Bank there will be a small shortage of poly in 2014 if demand reaches 45GW. There will be a big (good) problem/shortage if demand reaches 50GW.
This guy is spewing FUD so that he can get into these solar stocks at a cheaper price. He realized that he missed the boat on solar and now he wants to get in at a discount. He knows that JKS is going to $50 and if he buys at $32, that is "only" a 50% gain. But if he can get in at $25, that is 100% gain. Either that or he is just clueless. But I doubt that money managers are really that stupid to go short an industry based on incorrect data and information. I am a part time small money investor and I have figured out the solar sector all by myself.
Typical FUD on the industry that scares away the retail investors, so that the big money guys can make money. The retail investor doesn't understand solar, so he believes what he hears from these "professionals" on CNBC and they sell. If I had time I would investigate these people myself and then bring a case against them to the SEC. I am sure that if you tracked what they said, and then what they bought, you will probably find that they are doing exactly the opposite of what they say they are doing.
2014 will be the year of solar capacity shortage and big profits for companies like CSIQ and JKS for sure. I think that JASO, SOL, and possibly TSL will join the big profits in 2014.
This guy is spewing typical FUD on solar. Solar stocks up 300%, therefore they must come down. The only reason they are up so much is because they were priced below $100m market cap on $1b+ in sales. CSIQ is up 1400% in the last 12 months.
I know its FUD when he says 60GW of capacity and less than 40GW of Demand. That 60GW of capacity has been thrown around for 3 years now, and actual capacity is a lot lower. Mothballed capacity cannot come on-line because it is outdated and would need $millions to get the lines updated, which they can't afford to do because Chinese banks are not borrowing to losers and only tier 1 companies get loans. Actual module capacity is 45GW according to solarbuzz. And demand might hit 50GW next year according to them. The most likely scenario is a shortage of panels, which will lead to huge profits.
In order to produce modules, you need cells, which require wafers, which require polysilicon. According to Deutsche Bank there will be a small shortage of poly in 2014 if demand reaches 45GW. There will be a big (good) problem/shortage if demand reaches 50GW.
This guy is spewing FUD so that he can get into these solar stocks at a cheaper price. He realized that he missed the boat on solar and now he wants to get in at a discount. He knows that JKS is going to $50 and if he buys at $32, that is "only" a 50% gain. But if he can get in at $25, that is 100% gain. Either that or he is just clueless. But I doubt that money managers are really that stupid to go short an industry based on incorrect data and information. I am a part time small money investor and I have figured out the solar sector all by myself.
Typical FUD on the industry that scares away the retail investors, so that the big money guys can make money. The retail investor doesn't understand solar, so he believes what he hears from these "professionals" on CNBC and they sell. If I had time I would investigate these people myself and then bring a case against them to the SEC. I am sure that if you tracked what they said, and then what they bought, you will probably find that they are doing exactly the opposite of what they say they are doing.
2014 will be the year of solar capacity shortage and big profits for companies like CSIQ and JKS for sure. I think that JASO, SOL, and possibly TSL will join the big profits in 2014.
Yes I read 45 to 50 GW for 2014. I have read articles about "adequate supply" of polysilicon for 2014, but not yet any on potential shortage. I hope there is a shortage. Money can be made by money managers talking stuff up or down right (FUD)?
I am getting increasingly confident that I need to increase my JKS positions, but still have not done so yet. I am very heavy in CSIQ. JKS is 50% the market cap of CSIQ, and if they can keep growing medium term the way they have JKS may provide a better return than CSIQ for 2014, albeit slightly more risky than CSIQ. TSL is also now in my radar. Sleepy what do you think may be a good weighting for holding these solars?
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
He constantly is changing percentages depending on how undervalued a company is, among other things. To clarify, are you asking what his current allocations are or what he would recommend for you yo do?
I always go on my own gut instinct in the end on weighting, but take notes from others in my decision making process. So I am asking about Sleepy's own weighting at the moment and also from others as well. I think we should discuss this going into 2014 to try and help each other make the most amount of $ in Solar. I am 80% CSIQ, 20% JKS at the moment. Thinking of possibly increasing JKS to 35%.
I personally have my money spread pretty even along all my solars right now. CSIQ and SPWR are my old holdings which have done well and i am holding that value on them (they are LEAPS). they were at larger % of my protfolio but i did some profit taking to spread things out a bit among the others
JASO, TSL and SOL are all even weighted but have different plays. TSL i only hold LEAPS at this moment and JASO and SOL i hold April-Junes as at the time of purchase there were no longer term options available. I am hoping for a good showing out of JASO before i roll over into LEAPs. The majority of my cash in SOL is in stock right now as its been a laggard and there are no LEAPS available, once there are I will probably convert some of the stock into LEAPs. I still hold my SOL JAN14s that i have had for 5 months now which are about even at this point (should of sold after the last quarter report, but didnt see the stock offer dip coming, lost alot those few days) I am going to contine to hold SOL JAN14s as a ER play as i dont see any way this ER could be any worse then last quarter and last quarter was a knock out. If its not, that is my the majority of my cash is in stock and it wont break my back.
Lastly i hold about half as much of all the rest of my solars in ITM LEAPS of YGE. They are down a good 30% after the ER but i will hold them because even if they struggle for a bit, the rising tides of solar will lift it up. Its a laggard too so it still could pop if things for them improve and they found a way out of their mountain of debt. Bt that debt is why i hold alot less in YGE then the rest. I am not betting on any major move for YGE, which is why i hold ITM LEAPS. Unless the stock stays flat for the next year, i cant see how i am going to lose anything on the play. IF they cant dig themselves out then i guess i will go down with the ship, but one again, that is why i hold very little % of my portfolio in YGE at the moment.
I also still have money in the tech sectors as well making up the other 25% of my portfolio. I hold no TSLA at the moment and waiting for a clear sign of recovery (still do some day trading on TSLA when i see fit)
JASO, TSL and SOL are all even weighted but have different plays. TSL i only hold LEAPS at this moment and JASO and SOL i hold April-Junes as at the time of purchase there were no longer term options available. I am hoping for a good showing out of JASO before i roll over into LEAPs. The majority of my cash in SOL is in stock right now as its been a laggard and there are no LEAPS available, once there are I will probably convert some of the stock into LEAPs. I still hold my SOL JAN14s that i have had for 5 months now which are about even at this point (should of sold after the last quarter report, but didnt see the stock offer dip coming, lost alot those few days) I am going to contine to hold SOL JAN14s as a ER play as i dont see any way this ER could be any worse then last quarter and last quarter was a knock out. If its not, that is my the majority of my cash is in stock and it wont break my back.
Lastly i hold about half as much of all the rest of my solars in ITM LEAPS of YGE. They are down a good 30% after the ER but i will hold them because even if they struggle for a bit, the rising tides of solar will lift it up. Its a laggard too so it still could pop if things for them improve and they found a way out of their mountain of debt. Bt that debt is why i hold alot less in YGE then the rest. I am not betting on any major move for YGE, which is why i hold ITM LEAPS. Unless the stock stays flat for the next year, i cant see how i am going to lose anything on the play. IF they cant dig themselves out then i guess i will go down with the ship, but one again, that is why i hold very little % of my portfolio in YGE at the moment.
I also still have money in the tech sectors as well making up the other 25% of my portfolio. I hold no TSLA at the moment and waiting for a clear sign of recovery (still do some day trading on TSLA when i see fit)
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Yes I read 45 to 50 GW for 2014. I have read articles about "adequate supply" of polysilicon for 2014, but not yet any on potential shortage. I hope there is a shortage. Money can be made by money managers talking stuff up or down right (FUD)?
You are reading the wrong articles:
Warning from GCL leads to polysilicon shortage - CIOL
And that is only a little over a month away...
Academic curiosity I suppose since my TSL stock hasn't lost anything, but I'm a little surprised TSL hasn't done better than its siblings yesterday and today. It had a huge opening from the ER and dived hard, along with all the solars, that day and saw its ER bump wiped out and then some. I'm a little surprised it's just limped along with the pack rather than leading it given the positive ER.
i dont watch SCTY and SPWR is a US solar and that is also why i said most, not all.
Chinese solars, JASO, TSL, CSIQ, CSUN, and HSOL were all in the red at the time of writing, SOL was diving. only JKS was up, Due to a Zacks upgrade and YGE was paring back.
When the majority of the sector is in the red and the NASDAQ is up nearly a full percent (a pretty bull day). then yes i think something is holding them in the red. If DOW breaks 16,000... watch out.
It looks like something just triggered a solar buy though. JKS, TSL, SPWR, YGE and CSIQ all on a rally.
JASO volume seems awfully low.
Chinese solars, JASO, TSL, CSIQ, CSUN, and HSOL were all in the red at the time of writing, SOL was diving. only JKS was up, Due to a Zacks upgrade and YGE was paring back.
When the majority of the sector is in the red and the NASDAQ is up nearly a full percent (a pretty bull day). then yes i think something is holding them in the red. If DOW breaks 16,000... watch out.
It looks like something just triggered a solar buy though. JKS, TSL, SPWR, YGE and CSIQ all on a rally.
JASO volume seems awfully low.
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My understanding is that Renesola makes its own polysilicon (and wafers) while Canadian and Jinko do not. If a polysilicon shortage is likely in 2014, why do you think CSIQ and JKS will make big profits "for sure" but you seem less sure about SOL? What am I missing?
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Both SOL and JASO have not Reported and they are both trading on very below average volume today.
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It is way too complicated to explain, but in the end it is simple economics 101. Poly shortage means panel shortage and that mean panel makers can charge whatever they want (not really but you get the point). If price goes too high, then demand goes down and no more poly shortage.
You are also misinterpreting my comment on SOL: CSIQ and JKS should have ~$5 EPS in 2014, SOL will not get that high, no way because they have twice as many shares as CSIQ and almost four times as many as JKS. In any case SOL is still really cheap, but it is not a foregone conclusion that they will be very successful, whereas CSIQ and JKS already are successful. SOL also doesn't have hardly any cell capacity; so if cells go up then SOL suffers.
The whole solar industry is very, very complex and you really have to spend thousands of hours studying it to understand it.
Norse
Active Member
No analyst understand it for sure. Especially since we know they like TSL the most. Except for Gordon who raised his PT on TSL from $0 to $3 today.
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