Agree that generally the arbitrage would take a while to achieve significant payback...we don't generate much during super-off peak hours so the arbitrage is between off-peak and peak...which is zero on the winter cycle but as you point out substantial during the summer. But we just don't use much peak power so there just isn't much quantity re: the arbitrage. Really, the AC on hot days are the big exception...but those haven't been very frequent for us. Car, pool, dishwasher, laundry...those are pretty much all scheduled outside peak hours.
That said, I was able to qualify for the SGIP rebate (tier 2) so between that and the 30% federal tax credit on the remainder, I only ended up paying about $2,000 for both of them. At that price it was a no-brainer and maybe the lifetime arbitrage may recoup a good chunk of that initial cost...but without the subsidies, as others have said, it really comes down to how much backup is worth to you because it isn't likely to save you enough to cost-justify it.
Personally, having backup was important to me. I don't like the idea of brown/black outs. A few years back when I was still in Boston, I nearly paid $10k+ for a whole house generator that used natural gas...just for backup purposes, so these things are an amazing deal in comparison.
I wanted 2 Powerwalls so I could do whole home backup...one wouldn't cut it for my circumstances.
Oh, and as far as EV-TOU5 goes, by my calculations I'll save several hundred dollars over the year, a lot more if we get a 2nd EV...but that is more to do with your ability to schedule consumption for super-off peak than it is the arbitrage savings.
I think EV-TOU5 incents EV owners to spend less on solar/get smaller systems because oversizing isn't cost effective...solar is only cost effective compared to peak and to a lesser extent off peak whereas it was cost effective against all periods before...at least, that's my interpretation of the situation.