Here's my situation. I installed solar when the house was built in 2012. I could only afford enough solar at that time to cover the household use. Now I have two EVs. So my usage is heavily skewed to Off-Peak and the extra usage leads to owing at true-up.
I heard about Powerwalls and a company that was early to push the SGIP program when Tesla wasn't talking about the rebate at all. So, I got in SGIP Step 1 in 2017 but the Powerwalls were not installed until February 2018. Back in 2017 I wasn't sure that they would really be able to get me the rebate and I wasn't in a hurry, so I just let the deposit ride until something came of it.
The other thing that complicates my situation is that I'm on NEM 1.0. As such, I don't pay any Non-Bypassable Charges. If I were to increase my solar to the point that I could zero out my bill, I would be pushed into NEM 2.0 and I would have NBCs on my overnight EV charging. I would have to depend on my CCA payout to compensate for that. I have also already used the best roof area with my existing solar. Given my limited roof area, I would probably have to also replace my existing 240W panels with 300+W panels and place panels in non-ideal orientations. My remaining roof areas are SE and NW facing. I have not asked for bids to increase the solar, but it would probably be more financially prudent to increase the solar than to get Powerwalls today, mostly because of the poor Powerwall rebate situation. Without Powerwalls I could probably build a battery system with salvage EV batteries and wire it into the generator wiring that I had installed during the new house construction and use that as a backup system. However, the circuits connected to that are much more limited than what I have now with the Powerwalls.
Anyway, the arbitrage calculation for my situation basically goes like this:
Summer Peak usage is ~10kWh/day. Weekday generation is Part-Peak, weekend generation is Off-Peak. EV-A differentials give $485/year savings.
Winter Peak usage is limited by generation averaging 5kWh/day. Rate differentials are smaller, so the Winter contributes $140/year savings.
That is how I arrived at the $625/year savings. If you use air conditioning in the Summer, you can shift a lot more usage and save a lot more money. Same in the Winter, if you have more solar, you can shift more energy. My Powerwalls are just bouncing off the Reserve every day from about Nov-Feb when the generation is below 10kWh/day. Since I don't have central A/C, my daytime usage is higher in the Winter because of the central heat air handler running and a little more lighting loads.