Articles/megaposts by DaveT

[immunogold]

-- A huge number of problems would be solved if Tesla hired someone to look up the laws of each state regarding registration / insurance / financing / etc. etc., and make it into a little handbook, and keep it updated when new laws were passed, and hand that handbook out to all the delivery staff for reference.

Perhaps DMV.org could fill this role. The home page has tabs for each of these content areas you list. This website was founded by a guy who drives a Model S and invested in Tesla very early on. I had been unaware of the site until I met the founder over breakfast. Every millennial I have asked since (East Coast and West Coast) has said things like, “DMV.org is Wikipedia for anything to do with my car: registration, insurance, anything” (that was my son). DMV.org has 40 full-time people researching state-by-state regs and coding. The founder explained to me his plans to increase the EV content.
I no longer have a vehicle and had been unaware of the site. Running a few searches, they cover a range of EV-related state-by-state info.

 

[neroden]

Excellent idea. Tesla would probably still have to research the manufacturer/dealer end, but making their frontline people brush up on dmv.org would sure help.

 

[Brando]

Excellent idea. Tesla would probably still have to research the manufacturer/dealer end, but making their frontline people brush up on dmv.org would sure help.

browser tabs for store computer
tesla.com | dmv.org

 

[DaveT]

Here’s some quick thoughts on the Boring Company event I attended a couple weeks ago.

First off, the tunnel was quite crude. Not polished, not refined. Just very basic and barely functional.

It’s going to take a long time before Boring Company can make a multiple tunnel system that really can reduce traffic in an urban environment. I doubt this happens in the next 10 years.

But, that doesn’t matter. Because the event was about showing that it’s possible. People need something to believe in and that belief will provide momentum to make things into reality. Elon knows this very well.

The Boring Company has some very capable people in their company, which comprises of about 50-60 people at the moment (according to an employee I spoke with).

I spoke with an engineer at length about how the tunnel was put together especially and the process. Very fascinating stuff. I also talked to a brick engineer, the guy in charge of making bricks out of the excavated dirt. Another smart guy… says he’s been specializing in bricks for over a decade.

But the most impressive part of everything was the pure long-term thinking of Elon. This isn’t a short-term problem to fix. It’s going to take time and the solution will need to be massive. But it only happens one step at a time. And that’s what the event was all about. It was showing that steps are being made, and if things keep going, progress will be made and eventually we will see underground tunnel systems alleviating traffic in major urban areas.

Also, I could sense how Elon’s big goals are pushing the Boring Company employees. He’s put deadlines in front of them, and he’s put short-term goals in front of them as well to motivate them. They are all pushing really hard and fast.

Classic Elon.

 

[RiverCard]

Here’s some quick thoughts on the Boring Company event I attended a couple weeks ago.

First off, the tunnel was quite crude. Not polished, not refined. Just very basic and barely functional.

It’s going to take a long time before Boring Company can make a multiple tunnel system that really can reduce traffic in an urban environment. I doubt this happens in the next 10 years.

But, that doesn’t matter. Because the event was about showing that it’s possible. People need something to believe in and that belief will provide momentum to make things into reality. Elon knows this very well.

The Boring Company has some very capable people in their company, which comprises of about 50-60 people at the moment (according to an employee I spoke with).

I spoke with an engineer at length about how the tunnel was put together especially and the process. Very fascinating stuff. I also talked to a brick engineer, the guy in charge of making bricks out of the excavated dirt. Another smart guy… says he’s been specializing in bricks for over a decade.

But the most impressive part of everything was the pure long-term thinking of Elon. This isn’t a short-term problem to fix. It’s going to take time and the solution will need to be massive. But it only happens one step at a time. And that’s what the event was all about. It was showing that steps are being made, and if things keep going, progress will be made and eventually we will see underground tunnel systems alleviating traffic in major urban areas.

Also, I could sense how Elon’s big goals are pushing the Boring Company employees. He’s put deadlines in front of them, and he’s put short-term goals in front of them as well to motivate them. They are all pushing really hard and fast.

Classic Elon.

Did you see Mayor Rahm?

 

[Brando]

Here’s some quick thoughts on the Boring Company event I attended a couple weeks ago.

First off, the tunnel was quite crude. Not polished, not refined. Just very basic and barely functional.

It’s going to take a long time before Boring Company can make a multiple tunnel system that really can reduce traffic in an urban environment. I doubt this happens in the next 10 years.

The Boring Company has some very capable people in their company, which comprises of about 50-60 people at the moment (according to an employee I spoke with).

I did a quick internet search [how long to build DC subway?]

Washington Metro, a 103-mile rapid transit system serving Washington, D.C., and the surrounding areas of Maryland and Virginia. Planning for Metro began in the 1950s, construction began in 1969, and the first segment opened for operation in 1976.

Please don't tell the "ShortSeller Enhancement Commission" that this Boring money being spent just for Public Relations or Elon's attempt at public education. And besides we all know Elon not nearly smart enough, analytical enough, basic principles reasoning enough to pull any of this off.

Interesting: Seems Elon time is considerably faster, right?

 

[Ulmo]

Here’s some quick thoughts on the Boring Company event I attended a couple weeks ago.

First off, the tunnel was quite crude. Not polished, not refined. Just very basic and barely functional.

It’s going to take a long time before Boring Company can make a multiple tunnel system that really can reduce traffic in an urban environment. I doubt this happens in the next 10 years.

But, that doesn’t matter. Because the event was about showing that it’s possible. People need something to believe in and that belief will provide momentum to make things into reality. Elon knows this very well.

The Boring Company has some very capable people in their company, which comprises of about 50-60 people at the moment (according to an employee I spoke with).

I spoke with an engineer at length about how the tunnel was put together especially and the process. Very fascinating stuff. I also talked to a brick engineer, the guy in charge of making bricks out of the excavated dirt. Another smart guy… says he’s been specializing in bricks for over a decade.

But the most impressive part of everything was the pure long-term thinking of Elon. This isn’t a short-term problem to fix. It’s going to take time and the solution will need to be massive. But it only happens one step at a time. And that’s what the event was all about. It was showing that steps are being made, and if things keep going, progress will be made and eventually we will see underground tunnel systems alleviating traffic in major urban areas.

Also, I could sense how Elon’s big goals are pushing the Boring Company employees. He’s put deadlines in front of them, and he’s put short-term goals in front of them as well to motivate them. They are all pushing really hard and fast.

Classic Elon.

Sorry. I was trying to be dispassionate when I hit the Love button.

 

[Ulmo]

Some good examples:
-- A huge number of problems would be solved if Tesla hired someone to look up the laws of each state regarding registration / insurance / financing / etc. etc., and make it into a little handbook, and keep it updated when new laws were passed, and hand that handbook out to all the delivery staff for reference.

That is impossible to keep updated without great expense, and usually the "correct" legal procedure is not the one that "works" in each State, because most of government is about conducting fraud against citizens. And, that would open up Tesla to legal liabilities.

-- An even larger number of bigger problems would be solved if Tesla would get a decent bug tracking system for the car software, and design decent regression tests, and assign people to work on fixing the bugs with the most customer complaints, and to get customer feedback before releasing UI changes.

Yes, I agree, but first, that would require mature software development management, not one that is constantly setting fires under all the smart programmers and using them at only 1% of their capability level as a result, and making a burned mess of everything times itself by the power law (rapidly diminishing returns against an onslaught of super smart programmer armies that sort of equals the work of a few good distracted sick programmers total).

These are very, very far from rocket science; these are *simple* and they are *cheap*; Tesla is undervaluing organization by not doing this stuff.

Yes, of course, but Tesla does a good job of scaring off the people that remember how that could be done. Tesla has grown Corporate.

Luckily for $TSLA stockholders, most of Tesla's competition is diseased corporate, too: it's a race of the zombies!

 

[Heart Land]

Hopefully DaveT is not finished posting. I have found his posts to be some of the most balanced and thought provoking on this forum. With that said, I am curious if he has an opinion on the GF3 developments... Personally, I think the most exciting prospect of manufacturing in China is being lost by the attention of the potential market size and sales opportunities. Although sales is obviously very important, Tesla’s ability to manufacture their products faster, better, and more efficiently will be their biggest advantage over competitors. China went from being a joke in manufacturing to arguably the best at manufacturing in a relatively short amount of time. Some are worried about Tesla’s secrets being stolen but I am not. Tesla has more to gain from China than to lose. Tesla will gain invaluable manufacturing talent and techniques. This will help accelerate their mission. The cocktail of Silicon Valley’s innovation, Japanese quality and efficiency, and China’s manufacturing expertise will all be utilized in the GF3. Where it goes from there is what really excites me.

 

[Brando]

Hopefully DaveT is not finished posting. I have found his posts to be some of the most balanced and thought provoking on this forum. With that said, I am curious if he has an opinion on the GF3 developments... Personally, I think the most exciting prospect of manufacturing in China is being lost by the attention of the potential market size and sales opportunities. Although sales is obviously very important, Tesla’s ability to manufacture their products faster, better, and more efficiently will be their biggest advantage over competitors. China went from being a joke in manufacturing to arguably the best at manufacturing in a relatively short amount of time. Some are worried about Tesla’s secrets being stolen but I am not. Tesla has more to gain from China than to lose. Tesla will gain invaluable manufacturing talent and techniques. This will help accelerate their mission. The cocktail of Silicon Valley’s innovation, Japanese quality and efficiency, and China’s manufacturing expertise will all be utilized in the GF3. Where it goes from there is what really excites me.

I suspect the biggest advances in manufacturing is in the design of the components. why?
- total vertical integration of the factory, example Henry Ford
---raw materials came in and product (cars, then trucks, WWII tanks & planes) search: Ford River Rouge Complex
---- made glass, steel etc. (note: wood creates for engines were designed to form truck bed for Model T truck

-Modern trend [GM/Wall St./banker] consolidation and then outsourcing.
---now parts are NOT designed at the factory; supply chains; and factories do assembly work
---note: Tesla makes their own seats and might get more margin [make vs build typical decision/calculation]
---other examples are of course motors and batteries and aluminum parts forging in Lathrop

Tesla example of parts design:
- reduction in cabling and cable patents so robots can assemble
- superbottle - all cooling systems use: motor; battery; passenger compartment
--- less bottles,pumps, hoses and therefore quicker assembly
- centralized electronic vs each parts maker in supply chain doing their own electronics
(is Tesla making its own Model 3 brake rotors? brake calipers? anyone know?? air suspension?)

I hope this crude/quick note gives you the basic ideas. I have no basic Tesla experience, and I don't care to try and speculate in more detail as I only think I know what I think I have read.

consider out sourcing of "new parts/technologies"
OEM still has engineers and they also have to double check QC {Quality Control} of suppliers.
Problems found have to go back down the supply chain.
Supply chain must make profits - in house parts have the opportunity to capture those margins.

suggested reading/research: Ford River Rouge Complex; Edward Demings (also Deming Prize Japan) who taught Toyota

 

[Model 3]

is Tesla making its own Model 3 brake rotors? brake calipers? anyone know??

Tesla brake mfg. Brembo opens up new factory in Mexico to localize supply

air suspension?

The air suspension used to be made by Continental. These seemed to be good quality and few issues were reported, but were probably quite expensive.
For the last year or so they changed to Firestone. It seems like the number of suspension issues appears to have increased quite significantly since the change.
Note this is just my impression from forums, no hard data to support.

 

[Heart Land]

I suspect the biggest advances in manufacturing is in the design of the components. why?
- total vertical integration of the factory, example Henry Ford
---raw materials came in and product (cars, then trucks, WWII tanks & planes) search: Ford River Rouge Complex
---- made glass, steel etc. (note: wood creates for engines were designed to form truck bed for Model T truck

-Modern trend [GM/Wall St./banker] consolidation and then outsourcing.
---now parts are NOT designed at the factory; supply chains; and factories do assembly work
---note: Tesla makes their own seats and might get more margin [make vs build typical decision/calculation]
---other examples are of course motors and batteries and aluminum parts forging in Lathrop

Tesla example of parts design:
- reduction in cabling and cable patents so robots can assemble
- superbottle - all cooling systems use: motor; battery; passenger compartment
--- less bottles,pumps, hoses and therefore quicker assembly
- centralized electronic vs each parts maker in supply chain doing their own electronics
(is Tesla making its own Model 3 brake rotors? brake calipers? anyone know?? air suspension?)

I hope this crude/quick note gives you the basic ideas. I have no basic Tesla experience, and I don't care to try and speculate in more detail as I only think I know what I think I have read.

consider out sourcing of "new parts/technologies"
OEM still has engineers and they also have to double check QC {Quality Control} of suppliers.
Problems found have to go back down the supply chain.
Supply chain must make profits - in house parts have the opportunity to capture those margins.

suggested reading/research: Ford River Rouge Complex; Edward Demings (also Deming Prize Japan) who taught Toyota

I have the luxury of doing engineering work at manufacturing plants across the country, but mostly in the Midwest. After a while there are noticeable cultural trends in these plants. Japanese owned companies tend to be very detailed oriented and perfectionists. European companies tend to be extremely environmentally conscious and stick to a process. American manufacturers are generally hard working and willing to think outside the box. All have their pros and cons. I have never been in a Chinese plant and am very interested in their manufacturing culture. They do something better than everyone else, as shown by their pace of rapid improvement. I could see how a Chinese plant could be used as a pilot plant of sorts. There are not as many regulations, therefore it would be easier to trial and error there. I do not think the Model 3 panel gaps would have made one shred of news in China, whereas it was blown up into a big issue here in the US. There are just so many potential positives from manufacturing in China, I’m excited to see what comes of it.

 

[DaveT]

Hopefully DaveT is not finished posting. I have found his posts to be some of the most balanced and thought provoking on this forum.

It's so hard to find signal on this forum amidst all the noise.

I often feel like it's the blind leading the blind here.

 

[Buckminster]

It's so hard to find signal on this forum amidst all the noise.

I often feel like it's the blind leading the blind here.

You were the original (for my journey at least). We are all building on your foundations. Do what makes you happy - you won't be forgotten either way.

 

[azaz]

Dave I 100% agree with you that the noise to signal ratio is very wack these days. Hope you are well and please let me know if there is anywhere else you are writing these days.

 

[Singer3000]

I’d take DaveT pitching in with an update once whenever he feels like, if it was that or no insight from DaveT at all!

One thing that did interest me Dave was that during some of the mid 2018 craziness, your confidence in the company / its management seemed to take a slight knock. Just curious whether you’ve recalibrated your investment concentration or are still firmly eyes-on-the-prize (i.e. long term growth story remains great).

Finally, some time back you did a video chat with some other folk giving your thoughts on the Tesla investment story. No doubt you’re a busy guy with many better things to do but I certainly found that invaluable, if you could find the time to do it again once 2018 results are printed?

 

[azaz]

Has anyone’s investment thesis changed given today’s blog post?

The announcement of profits going down was startling to me. Honestly thought after q3 the profits would get bigger and bigger each quarter as they sold more cars. Demand seems like a legitimate issue at least in the short term.

 

[Singer3000]

Has anyone’s investment thesis changed given today’s blog post?

The announcement of profits going down was startling to me. Honestly thought after q3 the profits would get bigger and bigger each quarter as they sold more cars. Demand seems like a legitimate issue at least in the short term.

There were headwinds in Q4 (China tariff, Fred tax, lower Model 3 ASP). That said I am a little surprised as I’d expected further progress on like-for-like cogs to counter balance this. We don’t know yet how much profit down by so no need to panic just yet.

As for the comments on Q1 19: “with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit” - I feel a little like this is Elon acting as drama queen and using a vague adjective to try and motivate high staff oerformance.

Long term thesis for me doesn’t change a jot if they can evidence over 2019 the ability to bring ASP of the model 3 down, while maintaining margins. That’s without the cream of FSD (which by itself I’d fancy a decent punt on but not at the level I currently have on TSLA).

 

[azaz]

I think Tesla needs to start advertising conventionally. There’s just too many people that still don’t know about the brand. I’m scared they never get to 10k Model 3s a week. Right now they are struggling to sell ~4K a week in the US.

 

[Brando]

I think Tesla needs to start advertising conventionally. There’s just too many people that still don’t know about the brand. I’m scared they never get to 10k Model 3s a week. Right now they are struggling to sell ~4K a week in the US.

NO, struggling to PRODUCE 5,000/week - goal to produce 10,000 per week

- standard auto makers
produce/make, ship, dealer lot [~90 days on average], dealer sells to customer

- TESLA
reserve/deposit, configure/non-refundable fee on ordering, ship/deliver to customer

PS - TESLA has~400,000 reservation deposits (refundable)
get it?