JRP3
Hyperactive Member
If you're worried about plans and hybrids you really haven't been paying attention.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
+1
Planning to do 12 models in such a short amount of time is all you need to know about how effective those plans will be. Maybe bring one competitive product to market first.
The European car makers have been trying to Osbourne the market with promises of way more than they can deliver for many years. Audi has been talking about an EV available soon for years and we're just now seeing one reach production and its production numbers will barely be in the range the Model X has now.
Even if BMW can come out with 12 fully electric models by 2025, their production volumes will likely be small unless they really get cracking building GigaFactories. Even if they do have 1 or more GF by 2025, Tesla will likely have several. 2025 is 6 years from now. Tesla went from just starting Model S production to producing almost 200K cars last year. In early 2013 they had one design on the market, revealed one SUV version of that car, and had some vague noises about what came after that. Today Tesla has three cars in production, one in mass production, a semi and new Roadster revealed to the public, the Model Y reveal coming in a month, their second production factory under construction in China, GF1 producing enough cells to support the Model 3, energy products, and all pack production, and they are making noises about the Tesla pickup.
So far the European long range EV designs that are coming to market have very poor range for the pack sizes and production numbers are limited because batteries are limited. Tesla is way ahead of everybody in the price per KWh and volume. That is unlikely to change.
What will the next 6 years be like for Tesla? Will the European car makers meet their claims when most of what they have promised up to now has been vaporware?
Well, I do admit I often am surfing this page, while watching late night sports centre as well, however I do feel I am paying attention. Frankly, there are a multitude of things to pay attention to though, not just this board. Like the boy who cried wolf, eventually vapourware will be hardware.
Are you paying attention? (rhetorical question) Without the omnipotent google off the top of your head what is the best selling hybrid? how many per year? how many electric plug in offerings does BMW offer now compared to a three years ago?
What do I pay attention to? I read, Car and Driver, Automobile, Motortrend, and Road and Track monthly for the last decade or so. There is a noticeable shift happening in attitude, and car specs that make me feel hybrids will play a larger role in transition than many on this forum want to admit. This includes things that will happen in the future (Porsche 2022 911 hybrid, but actually changing body style this year to accommodate battery as an extreme example ), to things happening now (Toyota Rav 4 hybrid selling at about 50 000 per year and increasing). Range has been consitently increasing on hybrids over the last few years, and even today things like the Pacifica hybrid would easily get most of our families day to day driving done in all electric mode.
When you have a family, and want to road trip, there is no way the average person is going to plan around supercharging. Do you know how many unplanned stops there are with young kids? As evidenced by the destruction of our planet, people are not willing to give things up for the greater good. When supercharging is under 20 minutes, or faster is when the classic average two car household will consider going pure EV. In the meantime, hybrids look attractive, and as range increases on them, will continue to look attractive.
I do understand, the biggest limitation to other companies is battery technology and supplies. Toyota is now partners with Panasonic. Things are coming, and coming fast. You cannot say, oh look, Tesla can break ground on a factory in China, and expect to be up and running in 2 years, yet other companies for some reason cannot.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Hybrids are a stopgap transition technology. Of course they will help a certain number of people make the transition, but they will always be the worst of both worlds and twice as complex as either. They will likely be irrelevant in less than a decade.
I agree that within a decade they will likely be irrelevant, however disagree about the worst of both worlds. I personally would rather have some lecture range than none.
omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
I agree about them being a stopgap, but I wouldn't say they're the worst of both worlds. The more electric the better, and IME hybrids are a step up compared to a similar ICE.
Well, it should increase demand by around 20%. And may be a good stopgap until they can profitably produce the $35k model 3. I think natural ebbs and flows in demand should be expected, and I also expect Tesla will pull as many levers as they need to so that they can fulfill their mission.
I was reading through this list of Ark Invest's Innovation ETF:
https://ark-funds.com/wp-content/fundsiteliterature/holdings/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS.pdf
Hmmm, so is this the most innovative companies that they could find?
Anybody have any companies on that list, besides Tesla, where you are convinced it's a 10-bagger within 5-10 years?
https://ark-funds.com/wp-content/fundsiteliterature/holdings/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS.pdf
Hmmm, so is this the most innovative companies that they could find?
Anybody have any companies on that list, besides Tesla, where you are convinced it's a 10-bagger within 5-10 years?
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
I agree - no other 10 baggers, but I am bullish on them. They are constrained by only investing in public companies.
Singer3000
Member
I have no idea if Crispr Therapetuics is the right pick or not for that sector. However its valuation is only $1.6bn. If they are turn out to be one of the winners of genetic therapeutics then a 10-bagger forecast is probably quite conservative. Intellia Therapeutics is the same sector is only $600m.
I agree that 10x growth for the likes of Netflix, Twitter, Spotify or Apple etc... but I guess they need some balance to keep the punters happy in the down years.
I have a significant position in NVTA. They're a leader in fast growing clinical-grade genetic testing space. It's more of a business model innovation. It's currently at $1.5B market cap. I believe it has a good chance of becoming $5-10B company in next 3-5 years.
They are trying to make this seemingly expensive service affordable and accessible to masses with economies of scale. Currently burning a ton of cash to establish labs, operations & other infrastructure at scale.
As I argued a few weeks ago, Tesla bulls (and even Elon himself) might have overestimated demand for the Model 3.
This is the 3rd price drop in less than 2 months. The first price drop was planned, the second and third price drops weren't and were most likely in response to weak U.S. demand.
Today's price drop was basically a $4900 price drop for all Model 3s with AP ($2900 Model 3 reduction and $2000 AP reduction). This is addition to the $2000 price drop on Jan 2 and the $1100 price drop on Feb 5. So a total of $7000 reduction on Model 3s w/AP in less than 2 months.
Now, we can look at this two ways.
First, Tesla likely overestimated demand, and is having to push price reductions sooner than anticipated. This will hurt gross margin, and profits. Q1 won't be profitable, according to Elon. And we'll see for Q2.
It's another bad sign that Tesla had to give free AP in China during Q1 for Model 3 sales there. That shouldn't have to happen if demand was robust.
This price drop should help with demand signficantly. And that leads me to the second way to view this.
Tesla was able to make this huge price reduction because they are able to find cost efficiencies, or at least that's the hope. Cutting stores will be a big cost savings. And they are continuing to make progress on cutting costs for the Model 3.
So, in theory, Tesla will take a very big hit with gross margin now but over time they should be able to increase their gross margins.
This adversity now will make Tesla more lean and efficient for the long-term.
Overall, I'm bullish and I think Tesla will come out stronger for this. However, we'll likely see weaker quarterly earnings in 2019 than anticipated. And it also brings up some of the other questions I've been raising here regarding how Tesla will deal with the competition that builds really good cars for cheap, like Toyota.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Toyota doesn't even have an EV prototype. By the time they are "competition" Tesla should have production and costs well under control. The fact that Tesla is already offering the 35K 3 seems quite bullish to me.
Here's the delivery times for Model 3 for California delivery (New York is same). I hate to sound bearish, which I'm not, but Model 3 orders in the U.S. must have fallen off a cliff in Q1 2019. Thus, the need for drastic price cuts.
I believe Tesla still builds internationally in the first weeks of a quarter, then shifts to domestic for the end of quarter rush. They probably switched over a week or two back and are making lots of domestic cars now. I suspect they are making some Model 3s without orders in place and just doling them out when an order comes in with the specs already in inventory, which is a bit closer to the standard car business. I have heard many stories of people who got Model 3s within 2-3 weeks of ordering, more than I would expect from moving people up to take canceled orders. That does have the effect of getting cars to people much faster.
The short times might be because especially in California the storage lots in the Bay Area, LA, and San Diego have enough M3s built on speculation to meet many orders quickly. Ultimately to make mass production work, they're going to have to go to some kind of system where most orders are matching people to existing cars. The trick is to keep the built cars in inventory as short as possible.
BTW the delivery wait times for the Model 3 to Portland are the same as California. The Model S configurator doesn't show the delivery times. It just says "Est Delivery:"
I think Tesla dropped the price on the S too. I haven't been paying close attention, so I'm not completely sure, but it looks like it.
The short times might be because especially in California the storage lots in the Bay Area, LA, and San Diego have enough M3s built on speculation to meet many orders quickly. Ultimately to make mass production work, they're going to have to go to some kind of system where most orders are matching people to existing cars. The trick is to keep the built cars in inventory as short as possible.
BTW the delivery wait times for the Model 3 to Portland are the same as California. The Model S configurator doesn't show the delivery times. It just says "Est Delivery:"
I think Tesla dropped the price on the S too. I haven't been paying close attention, so I'm not completely sure, but it looks like it.
Haven't we learned that those delivery time numbers are WILDLY inaccurate? I mean, WILDLY? They've literally been off by *years* for some people.
Two other points: we knew we'd get a "post-tax-credit-expiration hangover", since those *always* happen. And this quarter is always the lowest-sales quarter anyway, seasonally. Tesla has been delivering the inventory cars built in 2018 to the US for a while now (producing only for China and Europe), and has just switched back to US production... I am pretty sure those "2 week" delivery times on SR+ are just plain not gonna be true.
Model S and X should be subject to the tax credit expiration hangover and the seasonality as well.
I do think demand for ridiculously specced Performance Models ($10K for a fraction of a second of speed) has probably finally dropped off (I'm shocked it lasted so long). And there's definitely a demand issue in China, which is having a recession and still tarriffs Tesla's cars while excluding them from tax credits which apply to all other cars.
But when Musk said that demand was the last thing they were worried about on the Q4 call, he wasn't kidding.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
