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Battery’s in cold weather, wHm and the 12V battery

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So my title is a little long but pertinent this time of year I think. It’s been between 20-55 degrees the last few weeks in Nashville. I’ve ready plenty on here about battery performance and the optimal exterior temps for Tesla batteries. My Normal ride to work is 15 min and I will be in the neighborhood of 250wHm on average. Lately with cold weather it’s been 450-575 in the same time frame in this colder weather. Once the battery’s start to warm it does go down to a more normal level but just want to verify that what I’m experiencing is normal from some the experts on here; those being longtime Tesla owners. I’ve only owned mine (used 2016 model S85D with 30K miles). For 6 months. I bought it in warm weather so this is my first bout of cold weather driving. Still not used to all the terminology and how to relate to watt hours per mile. Tonight driving home in rain and 56 degrees I never was below 305wHm. Is that normal or could it be my 12V needs replacing.....see below.

To add to my personal confusion and consternation my “check 12V battery, Replace 12V battery soon” Light just came on this morning. Since then reading more on here about the 12V I understand they may need replacing more often than most 12V’s. (I also saw where it’s pretty easy change one in a dual motor Tesla model S) I was told by a Tesla service writer that when you see this warning light you have approx 3 weeks to have it changed. Any truth in that by the experienced on here? I’m taking mine to the Tesla shop in a week (I hate their timeliness of getting to a customer; it’s such an impersonal process). A $200 venture. I Would love to hear from others. (By the way anyone know why they use a lead battery rather than an LiOn battery).
 
...“check 12V battery, Replace 12V battery soon”...

"Soon" is the key. I won't know how soon is soon. I'll just do it ASAP!

...why they use a lead battery rather than an LiOn battery).

Lithium is more expensive and requires more care than Lead.

It's cheaper to change a lead battery than getting all those liquid thermoregulation ducts for a 12V lithium battery.
 
Below 40F and the efficiency really starts falling off for me (below 80% efficient). Shorter trips exacerbate this problem as the battery and cabin heaters really suck a lot of juice that does not go towards propelling the car. I've seen efficiency even lower in those cases. Preconditioning the battery and cabin before heading out will help get the most range in cold temperatures.
 
That’s another thing. Preconditioning the battery. My app finally updated to where supposedly I can warm the battery. When I turn everything on on the climate control of my app, I walk tot he car and nothing is happening.......until I open the door or unplug the car and/or open the door. What gives with having the car plugged in and the fan or anything else not running when it’s supposed to? Am I missing something.