Battery Day - Resale Value of current M3s?

[jjrandorin]

Totally agreed. Buyers, at the end of the day, want to feel excited and comfortable with the purchase of an EV. Range is only one part of that equation. Having a robust charging network and a brand that is dedicated to EVs plays a much bigger role, as does the technology and design of the car.

A main reason other legacy automakers are struggling with EVs is that (1) current offerings are not very exciting (they do not exactly "spark joy") and (2) buyers don't get the idea that legacy is dedicated and committed to EVs, which is extremely important.

If you go to a "legacy" automakers lot, any EVs they might have, if they even have any, or sort of pushed off to the side, and the salespeople either dont know much about them, or actively dissuade customers from being interested in them. In order to buy an EV from a legacy auto manufacturer, you basically have to walk in, ask for it by name, tell them what trim you want, etc.

This is one reason why tesla is the only current player that is moving these in any sort of numbers. Other manufacturers are hedging their bets by saying they want to support EVs while still pushing their "regular" cars.

Like, how many Ford dealers are actually going to attempt to actually MOVE the Mach E? I mean, it will likely move some numbers anyway, as there are plenty of people who are upset with Tesla (and / or Upset with Elon) and want ANY alternative to a tesla in a decent, non "compliance car looking" EV, but do you see a Ford dealer salesperson having a person who is asking about car X and say "have you considered the Mach E?"

Nope... I dont... not till their company survival depends on it, which may be coming sooner than they expect.

Back to thread topic, More range is always better, just from a perception standpoint. If there was a 500 mile EV, we experienced EV owners would probably say something like "Well your effective range is going to be somewhere around 350 miles or so, give or take, because you will charge from 90% to 20%, and use A/C etc". Does anyone really "need" 350 miles between stops? Only those people who have no home and work charging, and plan to use the car like a gas vehicle and want to "fill up every couple weeks".

I am a firm believer in "not every product is right for every person", and i am not an "eco-warrior". For the people who have no home charging, and no work charging, and want to "fill up" every couple of weeks, I personally dont feel EVs are currently the right choice, even though people do it. "I" am not nearly patient enough for that, even with all the games etc in the car, and the fact you CAN use it as a mobile office.

So, those people who want to fill up every couple of weeks, benefit from "more range" because they can go longer between driving to a charging station. Most other people dont, however.

 

[vickh]

If you go to a "legacy" automakers lot, any EVs they might have, if they even have any, or sort of pushed off to the side, and the salespeople either dont know much about them, or actively dissuade customers from being interested in them. In order to buy an EV from a legacy auto manufacturer, you basically have to walk in, ask for it by name, tell them what trim you want, etc.

This is one reason why tesla is the only current player that is moving these in any sort of numbers. Other manufacturers are hedging their bets by saying they want to support EVs while still pushing their "regular" cars.

Like, how many Ford dealers are actually going to attempt to actually MOVE the Mach E? I mean, it will likely move some numbers anyway, as there are plenty of people who are upset with Tesla (and / or Upset with Elon) and want ANY alternative to a tesla in a decent, non "compliance car looking" EV, but do you see a Ford dealer salesperson having a person who is asking about car X and say "have you considered the Mach E?"

Nope... I dont... not till their company survival depends on it, which may be coming sooner than they expect.

Back to thread topic, More range is always better, just from a perception standpoint. If there was a 500 mile EV, we experienced EV owners would probably say something like "Well your effective range is going to be somewhere around 350 miles or so, give or take, because you will charge from 90% to 20%, and use A/C etc". Does anyone really "need" 350 miles between stops? Only those people who have no home and work charging, and plan to use the car like a gas vehicle and want to "fill up every couple weeks".

I am a firm believer in "not every product is right for every person", and i am not an "eco-warrior". For the people who have no home charging, and no work charging, and want to "fill up" every couple of weeks, I personally dont feel EVs are currently the right choice, even though people do it. "I" am not nearly patient enough for that, even with all the games etc in the car, and the fact you CAN use it as a mobile office.

ISo, those people who want to fill up every couple of weeks, benefit from "more range" because they can go longer between driving to a charging station. Most other people dont, however.

I agree went for Nero EV, Hyundai dealer said there are only 3 chargers in state and they're govt. ! (i think he mean't nat. gas) I think b/c
legacy auto manufacturer model is to push dealer current inventory on lot. (which will take a while to clear)

No wonder Tesla is the most valuable auto manufacturer in the world.

 

[BlindPass]

Time and new technologies are the enemies of resale value.

Is battery day in the future?
Will new technology be announced?

Then you have your answer.

Agree, and some would suggest that means lease. Tesla’s leases are costly compared to ICE, which is a little ironic given the purported benefits of EV and the antiquatedness of ICE. But Tesla has the best idea as to the price drop of today’s technology with respect what they have coming imo. Their lease options basically scream future price drops in the future.

You can nearly get a new M3 for the price of used, which would suggest not leasing, but how many of those M3s were much higher when new? IDK

But, if EV popularity explodes like it should, we could be EV car supply constrained for awhile? That should help old EV tech retain some value it otherwise wouldn’t. Another angle is if EV raw materials become supply constrained (nickel?).

 

[azred]

Was very close to submitting my order for a Model 3 LR AWD this month but then I learned about “Battery Day” in September.

While no one knows what is being announced then do we think the announcement will have a negative impact on the values of current Tesla vehicles?

Tesla vehicles seem to hold their value relatively well right now and I’d hate to buy in only to have my depreciation expedited because my car doesn’t have the latest tech in it.

Any thoughts on this?

The question of whether one should buy now or later comes up a dozen times a month. My 12/2016 refresh S only has a rated rated range of 249 miles, but it does have the latest FSD/HW3 and MCU2. It also has lifetime of the car free Supercharging. Is its value substantially diminished by the rather puny range? Perhaps but the lifetime of the car free Supercharging is a major offset.

Admittedly, I might feel differently if I had purchased a couple months earlier before the facelift and transition from AP1 to AP2/2.5/3. But at this point I feel comfortable that my FSD/HW3 tech will hold up well for a few years. As for the range, I would love 500 or more and perhaps that isn’t far off but I am not concerned about either my 249 mile range S or my 300 mile range LR RWD 3 becoming obsolete.

As for leasing vs buying I am very happy I purchased. Those who leased when I bought my S essentially wasted money on FSD as it is just now starting to bear fruit after four years of promises.

 

[Gasaraki]

When it comes to anything related to technology: If you keep waiting for the next big thing, you'll be waiting forever. There's always something faster, stronger, shinier right around the corner.

Will battery day hit our resale value? Probably. A lot? I don't know.
Keep in mind that Battery Day might be in September, but availability of these better batteries likely won't be immediate - you might have to wait another 3, 6, more months to actually get a car with whatever they announce.

If you can wait, say, up to a year to take delivery - then go ahead and wait. For me, the 2 months I waited after placing my order was rather excruciating (c:

The newest batteries will go in to the newest vehicles, meaning the roadster, semi and cybertruck. You'll be waiting years if you want the new batteries in the Model 3.

 

[Clover]

The newest batteries will go in to the newest vehicles, meaning the roadster, semi and cybertruck. You'll be waiting years if you want the new batteries in the Model 3.

Says the guy who just bought a Model 3 and does not want to have it outdated 6 months later. We will see, but it does not make much sense to me to have a special Battery Day for models not released yet. The Autonomous Driving Day had HW3 updates already being produced in all models for example. The biggest factor is that delayed approach is that it would crater their sales if they announced a new battery that "could be the one of the most exciting events in Tesla history" for a future date. Nope. Not going to happen. How do you sell the current cars when the one coming in a few months has the new battery that was a big enough deal to have a special investor forum for? Good luck with that with a client base of early adopters. I'll be shocked if Battery Day is only for future products.

 

[Knightshade]

Says the guy who just bought a Model 3 and does not want to have it outdated 6 months later. We will see, but it does not make much sense to me to have a special Battery Day for models not released yet. The Autonomous Driving Day had HW3 updates already being produced in all models for example.

It also had a ton of "coming by end of the year" features.

Which, BTW, didn't actually come by the end of the year.

The biggest factor is that delayed approach is that it would crater their sales if they announced a new battery that "could be the one of the most exciting events in Tesla history" for a future date. Nope. Not going to happen. How do you sell the current cars when the one coming in a few months has the new battery that was a big enough deal to have a special investor forum for? Good luck with that with a client base of early adopters. I'll be shocked if Battery Day is only for future products.

You sell current cars because CURRENT cars aren't getting new batteries anytime soon.

Your NEW cars are.

$140,000 Model S Plaid, available today (battery day) gets them.

Tesla Semi (even more expensive) gets them.

Cybertruck coming next year and selling to a different class of buyer than sport sedans or compact SUVs gets them.

Thus do you not hurt current sales at all.



Another way we know they're not coming NOW to CURRENT models? Tesla lacks the ability to produce remotely enough batteries for that.

They've got a small prototype production setup down the street from Freemont. Likely enough to supply Plaid S cars (and maybe Plaid X) and that's about it.

New line will ramp up to supply Semi and then Cybertruck.

3/Y will instead continue using the existing 2170 cells that Panasonic ALREADY announced they're improving the chemistry of over the next few years so those will get better too over time but no huge change in immediate future.