It feels like it wants to be inspirational, and that BO needed an end goal as the aspirational target.... and they chose "earth". It not-so-subtly is the counter to "let's go to Mars". But then it doesn't really outline a cohesive path.. it kind of throws buzzwords and imagery around: pace mining, gotta go to the moon first, energy usage, reusability(!)... and then kinda says "we'll launch alot to get the price down so others can do all this".
Many of the elements of that video we’ve seen before. It does relentlessly pitch the message that BO is all about “saving Earth” and is clear that the BO mission has nothing to do with Mars. So we have two billionaires with wildly contrasting visions for the future of space.
Some of the suppositions in that video I take issue with. The idea that energy supplies on Earth are inadequate to meet the needs of humanity, because humans will always demand and use more and more energy is questionable. It assumes an ever-expanding human population (not at all a given), a lack of progress in using energy more efficiently (progress in that area will certainly continue) and — remarkably for a space technology company — a lack of progress in capturing and using the staggering amount of solar energy impacting the Earth every day.
And not just capturing it at the surface of the Earth; there have been serious studies (
Including by NASA) of LEO solar power stations that would beam energy to ground receiving stations. Of course the technology required to do that does not currently exist and the engineering challenges are formidable. But they are clearly less formidable than mining asteroids on a massive scale and building enormous
O’Neill cylinders in space! Which is what BO says it ultimately intends to do.
Such a project would clearly take many, many centuries and require massive resources. The only human engineering projects that have been sustained over a few centuries were building some of the Gothic cathedrals, and they also had their fits and starts and periods where the future of the project was in doubt, a project on Earth, built one stone and timber beam at a time.
The BO vision seems wildly optimistic to me. It will take so long that human civilization may succumb long before it even gets started, whether from nuclear war, pandemic, environmental degradation, or even out of control warring AI systems.
In contrast, it seems possible (though the odds are against it) that a self-sustaining human colony on Mars could be a reality within perhaps 200 years. The resources and effort required seem less than the BO plan so it seems more obtainable. But still super hard! Starship is the first step…
