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Actually EU disregarded the weird stuff Johnson tried to pull. He sent the letter without signature, sent another letter asking them to effectively disregard the other letter. This is probably in contempt of the law/court. I doubt EU is in any mood to help Johnson.

I wouldn't think they would be, but lots of their other moves recently have been along the lines of trying to convince MPs to support the deal, so...

In this case as well. If they didn't want MPs to support the deal, they'd put out a statement of accepting the delay immediately, so MPs wouldn't feel any pressure to choose Boris's deal. Yet they didn't, and are waiting until after parliament acts (or not) on Monday, leaving ambiguity as to whether voting against it could mean no-deal.

I almost kind of wonder if Irish pressure is part of what's going on - e.g. if they're thrilled about what this deal could potentially mean for them, potentially leaving Northern Ireland increasingly tethered to them and increasingly loosely tethered to the UK. Kind of a dream scenario for them, really. I see little talk about Gibraltar, but I know that Spain would love to see the same thing happen there.
 
If they didn't want MPs to support the deal, they'd put out a statement of accepting the delay immediately,
That's not how EU works. Donald Tusk can't make decisions like that - he has to consult EU leaders.

BTW, if you read twitter EU has made it amply clear they will agree to the extension. The absolute last thing EU wants to do is to be blamed for a no deal crash out. Its not like EU doesn't have any informal contacts with Labor, anyway. (ps : ofcourse EU wants the deal accepted and the uncertainty to end)

Looks like there are 2 issues with the "deal".
- No major NI party (apart from SF) likes it (will Sinn Fein suddenly show up in the Parliament to vote for the deal?)
- Johnson is simultaneously saying they will have deregulation and higher labor & environmental standards. This BS has already been called out.

Jonathan Lis on Twitter

Two key questions: Pat McFadden asked how PM could promise both deregulation to ERG and continuing standards to Labour waverers. Luciana Berger asked how MPs could possibly vote on an economic deal without any economic impact assessment. These are basic, unanswerable points.​
 
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That's not how EU works. Donald Tusk can't make decisions like that - he has to consult EU leaders.

There's a difference between telegraphing intent and making a formal decision. Just like how multiple EU leaders, within 24 hours, put out statements before the last vote that one shouldn't assume an extension, that it's not a given. Telegraphing intent is a key part of the interplay here.

- No major NI party (apart from SF) likes it (will Sinn Fein suddenly show up in the Parliament to vote for the deal?)

Okay, now that would be amusing. Would that even be possible, for them to just suddenly be seated?

- Johnson is simultaneously saying they will have deregulation and higher labor & environmental standards. This BS has already been called out.

Oh, it's been called out alright. :) But attempts to amend the deal is about a lot more than just what specific amendments state; it increases the odds of the deal being rejected.
 
I almost kind of wonder if Irish pressure is part of what's going on - e.g. if they're thrilled about what this deal could potentially mean for them, potentially leaving Northern Ireland increasingly tethered to them and increasingly loosely tethered to the UK. Kind of a dream scenario for them, really.
My take is that the Republic of Ireland is extremely concerned about the consequences to them of a UK no-deal Brexit. Quite aside from their concerns about a return to the violence of 'The Troubles' the economic consequences are very worrying to them.

And while I agree that a united Ireland will probably result from Brexit eventually the RoI are saying that economically that would be a challenge for them. RoI has crept ahead of NI in economic performance and their education quality (RoI) is regarded as being superior. Here in Germany we are still paying to bring the former East Germany up to West German standards. RoI would be doing something similar.

Of course, back in 2016 the Brexit campaign ignored the whole Irish border situation. BS Boris declared the border of no more significance than the border between to London counties. He hasn't made that claim recently.
 
My reading is that the UK's opposition parties were not willing to go for a Vote of No Confidence, and then a General Election, because they were afraid Boris would pull a fast one and reschedule the GE after October 31st. This would facilitate a subsequent Conservative victory (a large tranch of their opposition comes from the Brexit party which would be neutralised by the UK actually leaving).

If there is a majority for Boris' latest deal we will know if the HoC get to vote on it next week. If the EU grant the UK a further extension I doubt it will pass. And if the UK get a three month extension next week I think there will be a VONC and a GE shortly afterwards. At which, I would offer, the Conservative party will either loose many seats to the Brexit party or form an allegiance with them.

As far as a negative response from the UK populace. Yesterday arguably the largest ever demonstration took place in London which was pro-Remain. While the Leavers may enjoy ticking dislikes on the Daily Mail website they don't mobilise in numbers. (A few months ago Nigel Farage promoted a march for Brexit from Jarrow to London. It fizzeled out through lack of support.)

It looks highly unlikely there will be any vote on the principle of the deal ("MV4"). The big vote (Monday?) will instead be on the Parliamentary timetable, with the government seeking to get the Withdrawal Bill through the Commons this week and then the Lords at the weekend, in time for the next EU summit. If the government wins this timetabling vote, then Brexit will happen on 31 October under the proposed terms.

But it seems almost certain the government will lose this timetabling vote. At which point the EU will likely grant a flex-tension, as it would be impossible to pass the Withdrawal Bill by 31 October.

What happens then? Well there's almost certainly no majority for a second referendum. And there very likely looks like a majority for The Deal. But..! There is also quite probably a majority for a customs union amendment in the Political Declaration.

This outcome as law suits neither of the major parties, as Labour would have to vote for Brexit which gifts votes to the Lib Dems, and Conservatives have to vote for the customs union which gifts votes to The Brexit Party. So it's hard to see beyond there being a general election, after some more parliamentary jiggery pokery.

The protest this weekend while large, was not "arguably the largest ever demonstration in London", with the anti-Iraq War rally quite uncontroversially still the largest. Regardless, the importance you place on protest sizes versus democratic votes is quite a peculiar one. Because one thing that the Daily Mail demographic definitely do is vote.

If you are hoping that these voters will now flock into Nigel Farage's arms delivering the election to a Remain Alliance under Corbyn, latest events suggest you'll be disappointed. Farage has been roundly criticised by his supporters both online and elsewhere, as putting his ego ahead of Brexit. Arron Banks who bankrolled Farage for over a decade has come out for the Johnson Deal. And all the polls suggest the Leave voting coalition has hardened behind Johnson, who is now ahead of Corbyn as "Best PM" in every voting demographic (including the 18-24 age group), while the Remain vote in England and Wales has been bifurcated between Lib Dems and Labour.

Knowing this, it would be in Labour's interests to try and defer an election still further but it's almost certainly in the interests of the SNP and Lib Dems to help the Tories have one anyway. That said, don't rule out that the next three months sees no election and no further legislative progress for anything Brexit related. At which point Macron really may lose his patience.
 
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I have mixed feelings about all the ups and downs of Brexit at the moment (perhaps no change there). I am a UK centrist which puts me to the left of many on here - although clearly not all. I voted remain and would love us to remain if I didn't think it would be so toxic. I work with uber liberal young Londoners who do not have these concerns. I was happy enough with May's deal - Boris' deal looks to be better than we deserve - if indeed we were to get a FTA with the EU in the next few years.

Boris' deal was done several days ago but there has hardly been any coverage of its benefits regarding free trade deals. Yes we will be worse off, but maybe it will have some benefits - we can make the most of it. The biggest problem seems to be that capitalism has become a dirty word here and I worry that we won't make the most of it.

Or should I just hope that we remain like most around me? - this could take years and is ultimately very unlikely. Will the 52% (now still a huge and forceful ~45%) just accept it, or will they start rioting?

No deal & Northern Ireland were concerns up until the deal but these are pretty much resolved now. The Boris deal should be seen as the new "no deal" baseline and yet cunningly, the left have worked it that No deal and NI still are the main issues. Northern Ireland have a dream ticket as far as I can see. More bureaucracy yes, but access to EU and eventually much of the rest of the world tariff free - what is not to like.

However as much as we dislike Boris' morality, he clearly wants to be the next Churchill. That is not a bad thing for the UK because he needs to make things better to gain his legacy. Not that I will be whispering that within 50 miles of London...
 
It seems we will have a few more twists in this tale:
Labour seeks new alliance to kill off Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal
Brexit has turned into a scandi-noir!

We already knew they were going for death-by-amendment, of course :)

Looks like the government will consider that a death knell for the bill.

"Lobby journalists are reporting that No 10 will pull the meaningful vote motion this afternoon if the Speaker allows amendments to it that render it “meaningless”. “There is no point in having a meaningless vote,” said the PM’s spokesman."

It's still unclear that Bercow is even going to allow a vote.

Scottish courts examining whether Boris's extra letter arguing against an extension was illegal.

Germany telegraphing that an extension is a given. "The unconventional “form” of Boris Johnson’s extension request is irrelevant to the EU, the European commission has confirmed, as Germany’s finance minister said “it goes without saying” that a further Brexit delay would be granted. Peter Altmaier, a key ally of the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said he believed either a technical extension to allow extra-time for legislation to pass, or a longer period to accommodate a general election or second referendum would be offered."
 
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Bercow disallows it. Substantially the same, and thus out of order. No vote.

So, I guess next up is... EU ruling on the delay? Wonder what exactly they say, whether there will be terms. I imagine there will be. This can't go on forever.

Odds up for a vote of no confidence?
 
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At work today I walked past a room where a big meeting was taking place, a scheduling workshop in fact. The German guy speaking, (in English to his mainly German and Spanish audience) said. "And if need be I shall ask you all to be quiet like mister Bercow the Speaker of the British parliament does by saying, 'Order, order.'

That got a laugh and then some guy in the throng called out, "And can we get a three month extension (to the project) if we can't agree." Even bigger laugh.
 
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Nigel keeps railing against the government over the deal:

Nigel Farage on Twitter

Does anyone care about what he thinks anymore?

Farage says "Goods going from Northern Ireland to the rest of the UK would need export declaration forms. It’s now clear that @BorisJohnson is prepared to wreck the United Kingdom to get this EU treaty through. No wonder the DUP are unhappy."

At the time of referendum Farage, BS Boris and Rees Mooge dismissed problems with the Irish border as Project Fear. Maybe they should have thought about the possibility of wrecking the UK at the time?
 
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EU holding off until Parliament acts (or doesn't) before making a declaration on the extension.

“I am consulting the leaders on how to react, and will decide in the coming days. It is obvious that the result of these consultations will very much depend on what the British parliament decides, or doesn’t decide. We should be ready for every scenario.”
 
We already knew they were going for death-by-amendment, of course :)

Looks like the government will consider that a death knell for the bill.

"Lobby journalists are reporting that No 10 will pull the meaningful vote motion this afternoon if the Speaker allows amendments to it that render it “meaningless”. “There is no point in having a meaningless vote,” said the PM’s spokesman."

It's still unclear that Bercow is even going to allow a vote.

Scottish courts examining whether Boris's extra letter arguing against an extension was illegal.

Germany telegraphing that an extension is a given. "The unconventional “form” of Boris Johnson’s extension request is irrelevant to the EU, the European commission has confirmed, as Germany’s finance minister said “it goes without saying” that a further Brexit delay would be granted. Peter Altmaier, a key ally of the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said he believed either a technical extension to allow extra-time for legislation to pass, or a longer period to accommodate a general election or second referendum would be offered."

After a further look at the detailed numbers and more statements from rebel MPs, it looks like there's no majority for either a Second Referendum or a Customs Union wrecking amendment.

The main point of contention is shaping up to be about what happens in Dec 2020 if a Free Trade Agreement has still not been concluded. At present the Bill says that the Transition Period automatically ends unless the government opts to extend, which would mean turning to WTO arrangements. There are many in the fragile voting coalition that want this reversed but it's likely to be a red line for some that it stays as is.

If anything is to fracture Johnson's fragile voting coalition for the deal I suspect it will be this. It's actually quite irrelevant - if there's no election then Parliament would be able to pass a further Benn Act to stop this happening. If there is an election then the strategy and mandate of the free trade negotiation is all to play for.

The base case should probably be that the accelerated time table motion gets voted down today but the Second Reading passes easily (Labour are said to be abstaining quite bizarrely). Depending on the issue highlighted above, the Boris Brexit Deal would then pass in time for an exit on 30 November in time for the new EU Commission starting on 1 December.
 
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I have mixed feelings about all the ups and downs of Brexit at the moment (perhaps no change there). I am a UK centrist which puts me to the left of many on here - although clearly not all. I voted remain and would love us to remain if I didn't think it would be so toxic. I work with uber liberal young Londoners who do not have these concerns. I was happy enough with May's deal - Boris' deal looks to be better than we deserve - if indeed we were to get a FTA with the EU in the next few years.

Boris' deal was done several days ago but there has hardly been any coverage of its benefits regarding free trade deals. Yes we will be worse off, but maybe it will have some benefits - we can make the most of it. The biggest problem seems to be that capitalism has become a dirty word here and I worry that we won't make the most of it.

Or should I just hope that we remain like most around me? - this could take years and is ultimately very unlikely. Will the 52% (now still a huge and forceful ~45%) just accept it, or will they start rioting?

No deal & Northern Ireland were concerns up until the deal but these are pretty much resolved now. The Boris deal should be seen as the new "no deal" baseline and yet cunningly, the left have worked it that No deal and NI still are the main issues. Northern Ireland have a dream ticket as far as I can see. More bureaucracy yes, but access to EU and eventually much of the rest of the world tariff free - what is not to like.

However as much as we dislike Boris' morality, he clearly wants to be the next Churchill. That is not a bad thing for the UK because he needs to make things better to gain his legacy. Not that I will be whispering that within 50 miles of London...

Agreed on Northern Ireland, economically they should end up in quite a sweet spot in a few years time. I suspect the DUP are not as upset as they are claiming to be.

As for the young liberal Londoners you work with - global capitalism has become a dirty word for such people because frankly in the last 10 years it has largely failed them. It's an epochal challenge to address this. Tesla is an amazing example of how capitalist principles and free market enterprise really can change things for the better, far more effectively than waiting for the Big State to play catch up.
 
Sinn Féin happy about this situation? Why not? :)

https://twitter.com/AineMcMahon/status/1186633567419469824

Talking up how Brexit is putting things on a path to there being a poll on a united Ireland within five years. "Everything is moving in that direction. I believe it was moving there even before Brexit, but clearly Brexit has become a catalyst for it. What is important to note is the German example. I think with the Berlin wall, Germany was reunited within a year ... the fact that events overtook and the country was unified within a year."
 
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