Some views on current price action

[jesselivenomore]

Macro scare over for now. Continuing to re-accumulate, small. Not going to get really re-leveraged until around $345+ which technically represents "coast is clear" for me. I don't mind missing the "bottom" for going allin(though I did start buying at 310, small), I am always going to miss that by design. I am only ever going to be "all in" on the way up(like when we broke $280), not down. More important to avoid the falling knife than to catch the "bottom", only way to stay alive in the long run when dealing with leverage.

 

[jesselivenomore]

Keeping it brief:

Break above $345 represent most attractive entry since original $280 breakout buy/leverage point.

Reason for $345 is not only 50 sma but also a confluence of resistences on different Ichimoku timeframes. Also can't just look at price levels, more important is price action and how we got here. Price action and candle on weekly represents massive launching pad off of Kijun support and weekly Bollinger mid.

If that sounds like I'm speaking Japanese, TLDR; = Buy*.

*not an advice, just what I'm doing

 

[Lump]

Will you become more bullish if TSLA moves above the cloud?

 

[MitchJi]

Keeping it brief:

Break above $345 represent most attractive entry since original $280 breakout buy/leverage point.

Reason for $345 is not only 50 sma but also a confluence of resistences on different Ichimoku timeframes. Also can't just look at price levels, more important is price action and how we got here. Price action and candle on weekly represents massive launching pad off of Kijun support and weekly Bollinger mid.

If that sounds like I'm speaking Japanese, TLDR; = Buy*.

*not an advice, just what I'm doing

I can usually figure out when to buy. But I generally have trouble determining when to exit.

At what level will you start to consider selling?

 

[jesselivenomore]

Will you become more bullish if TSLA moves above the cloud?
View attachment 239749

For sure. But mostly I am bullish off the weekly cloud and candle:

This week we launched off of the kijun(red line) which also served as support in early July, and broke above the tenkan(blue line) which also served as resistence last week.(this also coincides with other resistences on the daily) By doing so, price action also formed a very bullish reversal candle that closed the week on its highs. So while the top of the daily cloud is technically slightly above here($360), I highly doubt momentum stops there given what we see on the weekly.(but never say never)

 

[Lump]

For sure. But mostly I am bullish off the weekly cloud and candle:

View attachment 239750

This week we launched off of the kijun(red line) which also served as support in early July, and broke above the tenkan(blue line) which also served as resistence last week.(this also coincides with other resistences on the daily) By doing so, price action also formed a very bullish reversal candle that closed the week on its highs. So while the top of the daily cloud is technically slightly above here($360), I highly doubt momentum stops there given what we see on the weekly.(but never say never)

Thanks Jessie, hope all is well.

 

[jesselivenomore]

I can usually figure out when to buy. But I generally have trouble determining when to exit.

At what level will you start to consider selling?

I posted in this thread in June when I deleveraged and hedged my entire position around $370s. This time up I doubt we stop there again given the building momentum, but obviously watch for price action around those highs in case any signs of weakness.

Beyond that the next level to watch is $450 using Fib extensions. Note of caution about price levels though, again I don't like using them in isolation, so have to see what's happening to price action at that time. For instance, I did not sell in June because we reached our $380 target. That merely told me to start paying attention. The price action at the time is what told me to sell. So giving you our next sell point is going to be difficult since it will depend case by case on what price is doing at the time. With that said watch for $450 once ATHs are breached.

 

[jesselivenomore]

Thanks Jessie, hope all is well.

All's good! Just not as much free time for TMC, but I'll try to update during inflection points that I see.

 

[MitchJi]

I posted in this thread in June when I deleveraged and hedged my entire position around $370s. This time up I doubt we stop there again given the building momentum, but obviously watch for price action around those highs in case any signs of weakness.

Beyond that the next level to watch is $450 using Fib extensions. Note of caution about price levels though, again I don't like using them in isolation, so have to see what's happening to price action at that time. For instance, I did not sell in June because we reached our $380 target. That merely told me to start paying attention. The price action at the time is what told me to sell.

So giving you our next sell point is going to be difficult since it will depend case by case on what price is doing at the time. With that said watch for $450 once ATHs are breached.

I must have missed your June signal to extit.

Please post that informatiion when you think it's time to either deleverage or exit.

 

[jesselivenomore]

Revisiting this thread since we hit the initial target of 380. Like I said before, just because we've reached the measured move, does not necessarily mean the move is over. We'd have to examine the current price action to determine if that is the case. Looking at TSLA on its own, it does not look like we've reached a top yet on longer term time frames. However, there are signs that the overall market is headed for a short/medium term pullback(also not a long term top). Due to this, I've deleveraged what I added around $280, and shorted some nasdaq futures to hedge my core position. I am also looking to short some Ford as a further hedge and might actually hang on to that even after the pullback is over. Just a quick update, I can post some charts to explain later when I have time.

I am back in TSLA fully and as long as it stays above 345 it looks good, nothing has changed there. However, full disclosure, I am currently short some nasdaq and emini futures again. I wouldn't read too much into that(besides shortterm), I am long/short indices at most times to hedge or skew my risk one way or another, and it just so happens that I am short as of today, but that changes week to week. Also I have continued to add to my F short as mentioned above, that is more of a longer term holding. Mostly based on technicals, monthly charts, not too much explanation needed - it looks bad. Not really a pairs trade but just wanted to mention since it is a little related, I like that it somewhat hedges the auto portion of TSLA in worst case macro scenarios.(which I am not expecting, but nice to have)

 

[SBenson]

@jesselivenomore now that we broke 345 downward is there a change of plan?

 

[SBenson]

And now we are above 345.

I have no idea what all this means. Looking forward to Jesse's commentary

 

[jesselivenomore]

And now we are above 345.

I have no idea what all this means. Looking forward to Jesse's commentary

Yes our first attempt at breaking out failed after macros became a drag, actually starting the day after I mentioned hedging for macros. Good news is that so far we have not broken any key supports. The 345 I came up with was based on both the tenkan(blue line) on the weekly and kijun(red line) on the daily both lining up there. Since then the weekly tenkan dropped to 338 and the daily kijun dropped to 340, and we've held above those levels.

What's even more important is keeping above the daily cloud itself, and the weekly bollinger mid. As long as we continue to hold above those areas, a failed breakout can turn into consolidation and a second attempt. Also, the reason why holding above those areas is important is that it means we are still in an uptrend, which is why I would want to be leveraged up to begin with. When you are in a defined uptrend you want to lever up. When you are uncertain you want to be unlevered. And when you are in a defined downtrend you want to be hedged or short. Sounds simple but really that's all there is to the game. Hard part is defining trends, and doing so swiftly when trends first begin to change, and those cloud indicators are part of what helps me do that.

 

[TMSE]

Yes our first attempt at breaking out failed after macros became a drag, actually starting the day after I mentioned hedging for macros. Good news is that so far we have not broken any key supports. The 345 I came up with was based on both the tenkan(blue line) on the weekly and kijun(red line) on the daily both lining up there. Since then the weekly tenkan dropped to 338 and the daily kijun dropped to 340, and we've held above those levels.

View attachment 247071 View attachment 247072

View attachment 247074

What's even more important is keeping above the daily cloud itself, and the weekly bollinger mid. As long as we continue to hold above those areas, a failed breakout can turn into consolidation and a second attempt. Also, the reason why holding above those areas is important is that it means we are still in an uptrend, which is why I would want to be leveraged up to begin with. When you are in a defined uptrend you want to lever up. When you are uncertain you want to be unlevered. And when you are in a defined downtrend you want to be hedged or short. Sounds simple but really that's all there is to the game. Hard part is defining trends, and doing so swiftly when trends first begin to change, and those cloud indicators are part of what helps me do that.

Thanks for sharing your insights. How are you leveraging up? More shares on margin or options? If options, which ones?

 

[jesselivenomore]

Thanks for sharing your insights. How are you leveraging up? More shares on margin or options? If options, which ones?

DITM Leaps, to open up buying power for other positions. Its the same exposure as buying more shares or going on margin. The drawback is the lack of liquidity in case I want to quickly trade it, taking profit or sell. I mitigate that by shorting the stock to hedge instead of exiting the Leaps.

 

[Wenche]

DITM Leaps, to open up buying power for other positions. Its the same exposure as buying more shares or going on margin. The drawback is the lack of liquidity in case I want to quickly trade it, taking profit or sell. I mitigate that by shorting the stock to hedge instead of exiting the Leaps.

Thank you very much for posting! I look forward to your next post

 

[jesselivenomore]

Last week's weekly candle was a dark cloud cover/bearish engulfing, this was made worse after rejecting the all time highs. Based on technicals alone this is a no touch here and a sell below 340. However, keep in mind that delivery numbers come out in a week and a decent sized gap from that can invalidate any technicals. If we get a below consensus number, or even just inline, I think the bearish technicals play out. We need some consolidation this week and then large gap up to reset price action back to being bullish.

 

[TMSE]

Last week's weekly candle was a dark cloud cover/bearish engulfing, this was made worse after rejecting the all time highs. Based on technicals alone this is a no touch here and a sell below 340. However, keep in mind that delivery numbers come out in a week and a decent sized gap from that can invalidate any technicals. If we get a below consensus number, or even just inline, I think the bearish technicals play out. We need some consolidation this week and then large gap up to reset price action back to being bullish.

Any insights you want to share before the ER next week? What do you think of current price action? Thanks

 

[jesselivenomore]

Any insights you want to share before the ER next week? What do you think of current price action? Thanks

Not much beyond my prior post. The delivery number was in line and Model 3 below expectations, which meant a follow through of the bearish technicals(after an initial oversold bounce). Unless something very positive comes out of ER, we should get to at least the low 300s, which was the prior low in July and the weekly bollinger bands. Looking at the monthly charts it also doesn't look great, and could actually measure to the 270s or 280s.

Then again Amzn had very ugly looking technicals before ER, and of course that all changed after the gap up. News and earnings still trump charts, which is just a way to read sentiment. So we will see tonight. If nothing huge changes, then the technicals are more likely to follow through.

Beyond techincals, it's pretty clear everyone is just waiting for the model 3 to ramp, or at least signs of it. Before that happens the path of least resistance is sideways or down(due to prior runup).

 

[TMSE]

Not much beyond my prior post. The delivery number was in line and Model 3 below expectations, which meant a follow through of the bearish technicals(after an initial oversold bounce). Unless something very positive comes out of ER, we should get to at least the low 300s, which was the prior low in July and the weekly bollinger bands. Looking at the monthly charts it also doesn't look great, and could actually measure to the 270s or 280s.

Then again Amzn had very ugly looking technicals before ER, and of course that all changed after the gap up. News and earnings still trump charts, which is just a way to read sentiment. So we will see tonight. If nothing huge changes, then the technicals are more likely to follow through.

Beyond techincals, it's pretty clear everyone is just waiting for the model 3 to ramp, or at least signs of it. Before that happens the path of least resistance is sideways or down(due to prior runup).

Given the lackluster ER we had, we are at low 300s as you predicted. Have we seen the bottom yet? Or, do we need atleast one more week to get clear indication of trends on charts?

Some catalysts in the next two weeks:
1) Semi reveal
2) 13Fs, of institutional ownership, due by 15th