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I believe it is BOTH ! A very wise and opportunistic move by Tesla. The only complaints will come from those who are self absorbed.
I am absolutely not criticizing Tesla, but I wouln’t Use the word “wise”. It would be gross negligence not to grab those Canadian orders now and avoid cancellations when the rebate disappears. I do find it funny that people think Tesla is doing this as a favour to US reservation holders. The extension of the US rebate is simply a nice byproduct of Tesla’s due diligence.
 
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Something else to consider are CARB credits. Tesla has made extra money on cars sold in California when they can resell their zero emission credits. They have indicated that the value has dropped since other manufacturers starting making ZEVs instead of buying credits but I think they are still worth some thousands per car. So when Tesla sells cars to Canada instead of California they miss out on those CARB credits...
 
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Lets say your theory is correct and Tesla postpones and ships model 3's to Canada........

Who is getting the Tesla rebate during the postponement?

Same people who would get it if they didn't postpone. The people who stepped up to buy a car. If they delay orders to get the 200k line moved then the people who ordered have to wait longer but then more people on the back end get the credit too.
 
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Same people who would get it if they didn't postpone. The people who stepped up to buy a car. If they delay orders to get the 200k line moved then the people who ordered have to wait longer but then more people on the back end get the credit too.
No, The answer is: Model S and X buyers. I understand that most people here don't care about that per-se, however Model S and X will be moving the 200K line without concern for some "needless" tax benefit.

Model X and S buyers will get.....free referral code......free supercharging.....and the tax benefit.
 
No, The answer is: Model S and X buyers. I understand that most people here don't care about that per-se, however Model S and X will be moving the 200K line without concern for some "needless" tax benefit.

Model X and S buyers will get.....free referral code......free supercharging.....and the tax benefit.
Model S and X deliveries are also being postponed apparently.
 
Model S and X deliveries are also being postponed apparently.
One thing that's happened is they are switching to rail transport, which means they've had inventory building up in that slower moving pipeline. Not clear yet how much of the S/X delays are that, although overseas customers are also reporting order delays so it's probably not all of it. By next month that should be entirely filled so I guess we'll see then.
 
Something else to consider are CARB credits. Tesla has made extra money on cars sold in California when they can resell their zero emission credits. They have indicated that the value has dropped since other manufacturers starting making ZEVs instead of buying credits but I think they are still worth some thousands per car. So when Tesla sells cars to Canada instead of California they miss out on those CARB credits...

Just to precise, one of the Canada's provinces just passed a ZEV law, effective since January. The Quebec joins the CARB market with the 10 states from the US.
 
Oh wow! I did not know that. Looks like they started doing that exchange in 2018:
Market Tracking System
OK, so Tesla may retain the same benefit in some parts of Canada !

Sure Tesla could have some benefit from selling in Quebec and Ontario.

But different approach in Ontario, car makers are not forced to participate, it's voluntary. Surely, because of the strong lobbyists effort of the traditionnal car makers (multiple automotive factories in Ontario).