Canada is being flooded with invites

[ℬête Noire]

There are fundamental problems with Teslas numbers that have nothing to do with how much anyone is shorting them. They are way off on targets and I suspect they are getting huge numbers of cancellations on M3 orders. You can only fudge around so much before eventually the market takes you to the wood shed.

Ford is far more undervalued than Tesla even though they built and delivered over 7 million cars last year, were profitable, and have a $12B emergency fund to weather the next financial downturn.

This is indeed a discussion for another thread because your factoids aren't anymore sound reasoning than the stock price, probably less so. Certainly proposing some recycled FUD behind a paywall as the trigger for the current stock drop is worse than both those.

Fin.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Pretty sure the Invite Spreadsheet had a majority of Canadian reservations indicating they wanted the AWD. No doubt all of you in Ontario that would like the AWD are doing a very serious gut-check right now, so that could shift a lot. Especially with word from the US NE that the RWD has done reasonably well on snow.

EDIT: Go to the "States" tab (yeah, I know ) and down to "ON" in the first table. You'll see the % of invites is pretty high. Model 3 Invites However there's slightly more deferring than have configured.

EDIT2: Sample sizes get fairly small for the other provinces but QC is 6 to 1 on defer vs configured. BC is 4 to 6, so the other way around. Which makes sense climate-wise, if most of the later are Lower Mainland.

You know ur Canayjun, @ℬête Noire! Thanks for this - I learnt the State tab actually has provincial data on it

 

[ℬête Noire]

You know ur Canayjun, @ℬête Noire! Thanks for this - I learnt the State tab actually has provincial data on it

Don't let the name, or my current locale, fool you. Born a stubble-jumper that speaks not a lick of French....but my spouse grew up in Montreal.

 

[jkirkwood001]

There are ways but it's a lot tougher for a very new model car like this and hardly worth the hassle/cost/risk given there's an open, legal resale market with only modest mark-ups, even some straight-acrosses (because of the $7500 tax credit grease).

I'm pretty sure to get and keep the rebate, you need to keep the car at least one if not two years (I could look this up if anyone doubts). Otherwise you're getting up to $14 K for free for owning an EV 1 month. So to buy, keep rebate, and flip is not realistic anyway, cross-border or not.

 

[djplong]

Somewhat agree. While the tax credit would help, my current car is having issues and I don't feel like pumping any additional funds into it.

I notice you're from NH and, from your sig, it looks like you were about 2 hours in line behind me.

I configured my car last Saturday after discovering on Thursday that I could. I have another reservation that I can configure but won't be buying the car but I haven't cancelled it yet, if you want to try and work something out.

 

[GregRF]

1) *shrug* They aren't yet to the end of in-store, non-owners, I haven't noticed any online, non-owners [in the US] get an invite yet.

There have been a few, but only from San Diego that I've seen.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

There are fundamental problems with Teslas numbers that have nothing to do with how much anyone is shorting them. They are way off on targets and I suspect they are getting huge numbers of cancellations on M3 orders. You can only fudge around so much before eventually the market takes you to the wood shed.

Ford is far more undervalued than Tesla even though they built and delivered over 7 million cars last year, were profitable, and have a $12B emergency fund to weather the next financial downturn.

Any reason you think there are a huge number of cancellations?

 

[S'toon]

Tesla are trying to put off deliveries to US to maximize tax credit.

 

[Chris350]

Loyalty can also equal Bankrupt.... Just get the cars out.... I am ready to hand over the cash... not finance.... CRIKEY! I want the full blown model.... I am sure there are allot of US waiters ready to go!

 

[ℬête Noire]

Loyalty can also equal Bankrupt.... Just get the cars out.... I am ready to hand over the cash... not finance.... CRIKEY! I want the full blown model.... I am sure there are allot of US waiters ready to go!

CDN$ keep the lights on just as well as US$, assuming you collect enough of them at market conversion rates (which Tesla has, by setting an equivalent price). Temporarily diverting deliveries to outside the US, particularly to the relatively close Canada, costs Tesla very little.

The Q period numbers are a short-term, stock price thing largely disconnected from keeping the lights on. Delaying revenue from the last couple weeks of June until the first week of July rarely has any bearing on financial survival outside of edge cases, which don't appear to exist here for Tesla.

Maximizing customer tax credits/rebates not only means "happiness", it's very likely to translate to additional high margin upgrades on an order like FSB, etc.

 

[voip-ninja]

Any reason you think there are a huge number of cancellations?

I hint it’s a combination of the lack of a $35,000 version along with those waiting for other options like AWD.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Any reason you think there are a huge number of cancellations?

Wishful thinking....and I've seen before a conflating of "deferring for a later option" with "cancelation", which if it's not being willfully dishonest is a pretty good sign of cluelessness. It's not a customer going away and it's definitely not a lost sale or a delay in sales because Tesla's still selling every single car they can produce.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

I hint it’s a combination of the lack of a $35,000 version along with those waiting for other options like AWD.

Ah OK. So by cancellation you mean everyone who is waiting for something besides LR+PUP (AWD, P, SR, non-PUP) and everyone who cancelled. We'll find out in a month or so I guess.

 

[Pieter Knispel]

After an hour of serious questioning and whether or not I could reasonably wait for AWD, the expected retraction of the super generous 14k rebate is expected in June, and with a projected 4-8 week delivery window, I just couldn't risk losing the rebate... so I ordered! Multi coat red with sport wheels, PUP and EAP... cannot wait!

 

[suwaneedad]

That's where I am at.... 2000 Acura TL..... Sporting 275k in mileage.... Paint just about gone.... Transmission just barely hanging on (2k repair)... Small things broken here and there... Just had to replace the alternator (was pushing too much power to the battery causing the battery to go bad)... No A/C (killer here in Florida summers!).... Leaking oil (needs new oil pan).... But still get's 25+ miles to the gallon...

So, as I said.... Keeping this car alive would certainly eat up any tax credit.... MEESA NEEDA CAR!

Man that is pretty shocking for an Acura. I have a 2000 Ford Expedition that is in far better condition than the way you describe your Acura. This challenges my long-held view that Japanese ICE beats American ICE 100% of the time. I've also always wanted one of those early TLs...just gorgeous cars. You've let me off the hook!

 

[03DSG]

After an hour of serious questioning and whether or not I could reasonably wait for AWD, the expected retraction of the super generous 14k rebate is expected in June, and with a projected 4-8 week delivery window, I just couldn't risk losing the rebate... so I ordered! Multi coat red with sport wheels, PUP and EAP... cannot wait!

Congrats! I went through the same process last night. Configured, hesitated, my wife reached over and hit the red order button! White, PUP, EAP, 19”.

 

[Ghostman]

Congrats! I went through the same process last night. Configured, hesitated, my wife reached over and hit the red order button! White, PUP, EAP, 19”.

My brother and I just did the same thing and ordered. We're expecting twins! Red Multi-coat.
The next 4-8 weeks is going to be exciting!

 

[Tony_YYZ]

After an hour of serious questioning and whether or not I could reasonably wait for AWD, the expected retraction of the super generous 14k rebate is expected in June, and with a projected 4-8 week delivery window, I just couldn't risk losing the rebate... so I ordered! Multi coat red with sport wheels, PUP and EAP... cannot wait!

Congrats! I went through the same process last night. Configured, hesitated, my wife reached over and hit the red order button! White, PUP, EAP, 19”.

My brother and I just did the same thing and ordered. We're expecting twins! Red Multi-coat.
The next 4-8 weeks is going to be exciting!

Congrats to you all!

 

[Garlan Garner]

Good news/ Bad news.

The Bad is that US deliveries are being slowed down to maximize EV rebates for as many people as possible. But the rate they are inviting Canadians is a good sign that production is increasing (or they hope it will). FUD interpretation would be that they are at the point where they would beg lie and cheat to get our cash. They have plowed through all Tesla Employees (admittedly just stores here), Owners, and are now inviting all early reservations including a couple days after reveal. So they could be reaching their goals or most Canucks are waiting for AWD.
I'm a non-owner line waiter, but was so far back in the line that it was close to 1:00 pm by the time I got through (and there were still another hundred behind me!) at Yorkdale mall in Toronto. Too impatient to wait and wanted to lock in my own rebate, so I ordered. But I also would have preferred giving them my cash for the upgrade.

I don't agree with the premise of why you are saying that US "model 3" deliveries are slowing down. To maximize EV rebates? Please elaborate because that makes no sense to me. As a matter of fact....from a practical standpoint....its a backwards objective from a consumers standpoint.

In short: There are a ton of people out there who dreamed of owning a Tesla and they just couldn't afford one. Then Tesla said...I'll build a more affordable one for those who can't afford to buy a $75K+ car. Here is a less expensive version called the Model 3.
Now. along with the Model 3 and all Teslas comes a $7500 tax benefit. That will seemingly allow a few MORE people the opportunity to buy a Tesla.
Stay with me for a moment here....I'm almost done. Read this slowly so it can sink in.
I hope that Tesla doesn't STOP or slow down Model 3 sales in the US because of Canadian sales because: New Model S and X buyers would benefit from the tax benefit than model 3 owners would ...... in the long run.... and its my belief that model 3 buyers need ( and would benefit from ) the benefit of tax benefits more than model S and X owners. Why? Lets just face it...the average model S and X owner is more affluent than the average model 3 owner. People with less money by far benefit from savings opportunities than those who have more money. For example: lets say that Tesla totally stops making Model 3's in the US and starts selling exclusively in Canada for now. That would mean that the only people benefiting from the tax benefit would be model S and X buyers who would probably enjoy it, but in my opinion not as much as a model 3 buyer. Remember this benefit will run out after Tesla has sold "x" number of cars.

Either way..... the tax benefit wouldn't affect Tesla in any way....so why would they have a strategy concerning the tax benefit. Why would they care....which is why I don't believe they have an agenda concerning the benefit.

What I believe is happening is that Tesla is running out of people who wanted this version model 3 in the US and therefore are reaching out to the Canadian market....which makes all kinds of sense. If I can't get enough customers here....then sell my stuff over there.

Now......let Tesla actually produce a $35K version and watch the US floodgates open for US configurations. Or let Tesla produce the AWD Performance version and another set of floodgates will open. I just believe that Tesla is running out of customers for this version of the model 3.
Out of 500K ( foreign included) reservations....how many people wanted the current version of the Model 3? 1%? 15%? Not me.... I passed my opportunity to configure up....waiting for dual motor performance.

 

[DR61]

What I believe is happening is that Tesla is running out of people who wanted this version model 3 in the US and therefore are reaching out to the Canadian market....which makes all kinds of sense.

Then why can't I order since I have long specified the first version on my Tesla page? Still says May-July...