An excellent analysis of the impact of EVs and autonomous driving by Ben Evans:
Cars and second order consequences
Cars and second order consequences
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Cars and Second Order Consequences
- Thread starter JPP
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That's deep lol! Never thought about the possibility of reducing tobacco sales and consequent lung cancer deaths by EV adoption =)
Traffic theory always intrigued me. That's definitely what I'm looking forward to the most in the distant future with higher level autonomy. One person braking hard or changing lanes suddenly sets off a chain reaction that manifests in my profanity use hours later.
One thing about my MS that kinda mildly annoys me at the moment is the quick initiation of brake lights when I'm letting off accel pedal for regen. I love the regen, and one pedal driving, and totally understand why they made brake lights turn on with that. But once in a while maybe I just want to slow down just a little bit and I'm still used to the feeling of coasting in my ICEs, and I let off more of the accel pedal than I should, and my brake lights turn on. Being aware of the possible chain reaction that can be caused by brake lights, I don't wanna be that guy that caused someone behind me to brake because my brake lights turned on.
But that's probably something that will be mitigated by as I get more used to one pedal driving and actually modifying the depress of the accel pedal rather than letting off completely.
Traffic theory always intrigued me. That's definitely what I'm looking forward to the most in the distant future with higher level autonomy. One person braking hard or changing lanes suddenly sets off a chain reaction that manifests in my profanity use hours later.
One thing about my MS that kinda mildly annoys me at the moment is the quick initiation of brake lights when I'm letting off accel pedal for regen. I love the regen, and one pedal driving, and totally understand why they made brake lights turn on with that. But once in a while maybe I just want to slow down just a little bit and I'm still used to the feeling of coasting in my ICEs, and I let off more of the accel pedal than I should, and my brake lights turn on. Being aware of the possible chain reaction that can be caused by brake lights, I don't wanna be that guy that caused someone behind me to brake because my brake lights turned on.
But that's probably something that will be mitigated by as I get more used to one pedal driving and actually modifying the depress of the accel pedal rather than letting off completely.
The author (who I believe is in the UK) did not address 2 related industries/issues that are likely to be impacted more here in the US:
Insurance--collision, property damage, and, most important, personal injury/liability. If autonomous vehicles meaningfully reduce collisions, property damage and injuries/deaths, there will be a radical shift in the insurance industry.
Legal--in the US, there is an enormous industry based around motor vehicles, specifically collisions, personal injury and death. With fewer collisions and injuries, there should be a substantial reduction in litigation. Lots of underemployed lawyers, and maybe some reduction in the burden on overcrowded courts. FWIW, I was just in south Florida, and every other billboard seems to be advertising a law firm offering their services to get you (...and their firm) money for your injury/accident.
Insurance--collision, property damage, and, most important, personal injury/liability. If autonomous vehicles meaningfully reduce collisions, property damage and injuries/deaths, there will be a radical shift in the insurance industry.
Legal--in the US, there is an enormous industry based around motor vehicles, specifically collisions, personal injury and death. With fewer collisions and injuries, there should be a substantial reduction in litigation. Lots of underemployed lawyers, and maybe some reduction in the burden on overcrowded courts. FWIW, I was just in south Florida, and every other billboard seems to be advertising a law firm offering their services to get you (...and their firm) money for your injury/accident.
kingjamez
Member
Great article. I'm very much trying to figure out how to be well placed in my investments as the shift to electric and autonomy happens. I know the future, now how do I invest based on that?
There are obviously many things that the author didn't anticipate, its impossible to predict them all. One big one is the dramatic reduction in donor organs that will be available.
-Jim
There are obviously many things that the author didn't anticipate, its impossible to predict them all. One big one is the dramatic reduction in donor organs that will be available.
-Jim
Not too sure how much head injury we get in the absence of significant chest/abdomen/pelvic injury if you are a visctim inside a car in an accident and you are belted (so your donor organs might not be so hot)...but we still do have donorcycles and gunshot wounds to the head. Don't have any statistics, just a gut feel having worked at a major trauma center for many years.
kingjamez
Member
Yes, perhaps dramatic is too strong a word. Since 1994, 16% of organ donations have come from motor vehicle accidents. (Source: Forbes)
-Jim
-Jim
Rashomon
Member
Ben Evans is great. He is British, but has been working for the last couple of years for Andreessen Horowitz (A16z) on San Hill Road in Menlo Park. They are a VC firm who were one of the early investors in Uber, among many others. If you want clear thinking on where technology is headed, he and Horace Dediu of Asymco.com are some of the better people to read.
Brando
Active Member
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