China Market situation and outlook

[Auzie]

This really seems like something Tesla is getting kickbacks for. If it was just a "bring in a trade in" then they would likely include all cars as opposed to just ICE or Hybrids... wouldn't they? And since the discount appears to scale based on which car you get, it seems like the discount is almost a percentage based on the price which feels like a tax that Tesla would normally have to pay, but for some reason are not going to have to, and are now passing that savings on to the customer in some form? Maybe the Chinese government told Tesla that for every person they convert to an EV they get X tax break? Wouldn't surprise me if this was happening.

It just seems really odd to me that they are doing this the way that they are doing this (not so much just the discount bonus, but the stipulations behind it). Also, if I am not mistaken license plates are titled to an individual, not a vehicle, right? So if you are a new owner you would be going to a license plate lottery system. But since this is geared toward converting current drivers, they must therefore have a license plate in their name already right? So they are getting more people off oil and into EVs which is directly in line with what the Chinese government is trying to push. This is why it feels like there is more to this story than we are seeing.

If it turns out to just be a trade in thing, whatever... I'll accept that, if just feels like there is something else going on here.... very odd.

CE, what is most likely going on here is a typical culturally and linguistically driven misunderstanding and misinterpretation, imho. It just grows and grows with each added post

I trust the duck test, it is a reliable test

Wiki on intercultural communication problems

 

[Fallenone]

I asked the Tesla China salesman specifically about selling an ICE car to a third party dealer. And the answer is yes you can get the discount if you sold your car to a third party dealer without Tesla handling the car.

To be more exact, I asked: can I get the discount if I sold my car elsewhere?
He replied: as long as the first inspection of your car passes the Tesla test for this offer, you can sell to another dealer for a higher price than Tesla's offer if that is what you wish. Bring back the proofs of selling your car and we will give you the discount on your Model S.

Unless his not a Tesla China employee as he claimed or he's giving false information, this discount can be obtained without trade-in with Tesla. Actually, this is also in-line with their advertisement of "0 cost, 0 profit, 0 wait" since they really wouldn't care if you sold to someone else as long as they stick to the "0 profit" part, which means, they don't keep the proceeds of the trade-in and don't make a dime with the trade-in program in China.

Unless more updates surface, this is definitely not your typical trade-in.

CE, what is most likely going on here is a typical culturally and linguistically driven misunderstanding and misinterpretation, imho. It just grows and grows with each added post

I trust the duck test, it is a reliable test

Wiki on intercultural communication problems

View attachment 101196

 

[Auzie]

I asked the Tesla China salesman specifically about selling an ICE car to a third party dealer. And the answer is yes you can get the discount if you sold your car to a third party dealer without Tesla handling the car.

To be more exact, I asked: can I get the discount if I sold my car elsewhere?
He replied: as long as the first inspection of your car passes the Tesla test for this offer, you can sell to another dealer for a higher price than Tesla's offer if that is what you wish. Bring back the proofs of selling your car and we will give you the discount on your Model S.

Unless his not a Tesla China employee as he claimed or he's giving false information, this discount can be obtained without trade-in with Tesla. Actually, this is also in-line with their advertisement of "0 cost, 0 profit, 0 wait" since they really wouldn't care if you sold to someone else as long as they stick to the "0 profit" part, which means, they don't keep the proceeds of the trade-in and don't make a dime with the trade-in program in China.

Unless more updates surface, this is definitely not your typical trade-in.

Fallenone I appreciate your efforts in trying to clarify this issue.

A likely explanation is that you can sell to anyone, but Tesla gets the proceeds of the sale and discounts the price of Tesla car for the equivalent amount, capped at $12.5k. Any other explanation makes no sense so I stick with my duck test.

Tesla China employee is not immune from misunderstanding Tesla's offer, quite the opposite, misunderstandings are highly likely and expected between Tesla HQ and China branch if the employees are not fluent in English. These misunderstandings are no one 's fault, they are inherent to any communication between parties that have varying non-fluent command of the language.

Such misunderstandings are evident in this thread.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Fallenone I appreciate your efforts in trying to clarify this issue.

A likely explanation is that you can sell to anyone, but Tesla gets the proceeds of the sale and discounts the price of Tesla car for the equivalent amount, capped at $12.5k. Any other explanation makes no sense so I stick with my duck test.

Tesla China employee is not immune from misunderstanding Tesla's offer, quite the opposite, misunderstandings are highly likely and expected between Tesla HQ and China branch if the employees are not fluent in English. These misunderstandings are no one 's fault, they are inherent to any communication between parties that have varying non-fluent command of the language.

Such misunderstandings are evident in this thread.

It doesn't have to even be a cultural misunderstanding. Tesla has have miscommunication between the low level sales and corporate policy before even in the US, esp. during the early stages when they have not finalized the policy (see the example of the Roadster 3.0 upgrade for Roadster 1.5 owners).

 

[Auzie]

It doesn't have to even be a cultural misunderstanding. Tesla has have miscommunication between the low level sales and corporate policy before even in the US, esp. during the early stages when they have not finalized the policy (see the example of the Roadster 3.0 upgrade for Roadster 1.5 owners).

Thanks.

It is true that even people speaking the same language can easily misinterpret intended message. The message transmitted to a non English speaking markets gets a magnified risk of misinterpretation.

That makes me think that there is an increasing business risk in the area of communications.

Pictorial, visual messages are easier to understand and less prone to misinterpretation than verbal ones.

 

[maoing]

In October, GM Thrived In China, Jaguar Land Rover And Tesla Struggled

Telsa Models S stagnated at 302 units, 20% fall from a year ago.

The growth didn't accelerate in Oct.

==========================================================

Tesla announced China Sales number in 2015

Elon Musk is visiting China now.
Q1: 797
Q2: 883
Q3: 1345
=======
2015 YTD: 3025

Good news or bad news. Good news is the >50% QoQ growth in Q3. Bad news is China only takes less than 10% of the total sales and it's still hard to reach 5K in 2015.

 

[Gerardf]

>>> Telsa Models S stagnated at 302 units, 20% fall from a year ago.
The growth didn't accelerate in Oct.
==========================================================

This might very well be the same as we used to see in Europe, where a large number of the cars are in transit during the first month of the quarter, to arrive and being registered & delivered in higher numbers in the second and third month of the quarter.

 

[Chickenlittle]

In October, GM Thrived In China, Jaguar Land Rover And Tesla Struggled

The growth didn't accelerate in Oct.

==========================================================

If market for tesla falling off as you suggest, do you have explanation for why when a car is ordered today in China it will be delivered in February? Can not just look at a single data point.

 

[techmaven]

Yeah, looking at growth on a month by month basis is trying to be too granular with Tesla. That can lead to misleading interpretations. Certainly, the Chinese market is not exploding with Tesla sales like Musk had thought in early 2014, but it also isn't as dire as some made it out to be in late 2014.

It would be nice to get a read on the 3rd party resale market of new and used Model S in China if anyone can contribute reliable info. Thanks much.

 

[AlMc]

Yeah, looking at growth on a month by month basis is trying to be too granular with Tesla. That can lead to misleading interpretations. Certainly, the Chinese market is not exploding with Tesla sales like Musk had thought in early 2014, but it also isn't as dire as some made it out to be in late 2014.

It would be nice to get a read on the 3rd party resale market of new and used Model S in China if anyone can contribute reliable info. Thanks much.

Agreed. This is similar to the false impression many of us got when 'VIN counting' was the way to get a handle on prodction/deliveries a few years ago. That backfired for many, including me.

 

[Benz]

"Tesla will recall all 7,166 Model S sedans sold in China that were manufactured between May 1, 2012 and November 12, 2015."

That's a pretty accurate number.

Link: http://insideevs.com/tesla-model-s-seatbelt-recall-affects-7166-vehicles-china/

 

[Fallenone]

Similar to the 90k recalls of seatbelt. 7166 is the total number of these cars delivered to China so far.

 

[hobbes]

Cool - can we calculate the Model S in 2015 from this and the 3025 cars in Jan-Sep mentioned in the article? What´s missing is the Teslas in China through 2014... Anyone remember? That would also give us the Q4 number.

"Tesla will recall all 7,166 Model S sedans sold in China that were manufactured between May 1, 2012 and November 12, 2015."

That's a pretty accurate number.

Link: http://insideevs.com/tesla-model-s-seatbelt-recall-affects-7166-vehicles-china/

 

[Fallenone]

I think 2014 China around 3.5k. And Q1-3 2015 we got 3k. So about 1k for Oct and part of Nov.

Cool - can we calculate the Model S in 2015 from this and the 3025 cars in Jan-Sep mentioned in the article? What´s missing is the Teslas in China through 2014... Anyone remember? That would also give us the Q4 number.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I think 2014 China around 3.5k. And Q1-3 2015 we got 3k. So about 1k for Oct and part of Nov.

That would be a complete opposite picture from what was suggested earlier in the thread that starting from October there is a downward trajectory.

 

[hobbes]

Would be great if we find some hard numbers before starting with conclusions...

 

[Fallenone]

Well Tesla did start in China from late Aug 2013 so there are some cars delivered in 2013. Plus Tesla only gets the privilege of getting licence plates as an alternative energy vehicle (huge, shortens typical wait time for customers getting a licence plate from 3 years to nothing) in Beijing this September that could surge a spike of deliveries in Nov (factoring in a two months time of order confirmation, production, transportation). Plus the monthly numbers really fluctuate so a stagnant Oct does not mean a stagnant Nov at all.

That would be a complete opposite picture from what was suggested earlier in the thread that starting from October there is a downward trajectory.

 

[Benz]

Best Selling Cars Blog
Hong Kong (China) November 2015:

"Is the Tesla Model S one of the best-selling nameplates in Hong Kong?"

"Note Hong Kong data doesn’t include Tesla sales for now as the company doesn’t disclose commercial information for the territory. Yet as one of our readers Nick Naylor pointed out recently, a recent article in the South China Morning Post talks of roughly 2.000 Tesla Model S already having found a new home in Hong Kong. With the Model S having launched a little over a year ago in Hong Kong, this would place the brand within the Top 10 best-sellers on the territory in 2015, and the Model S among the five most popular nameplates – making Hong Kong Tesla’s most successful market in the world in terms of market share along with Norway – albeit unofficially."

Link: http://bestsellingcarsblog.com/2015...ovember-2015-bmw-2-series-tourer-strong-at-2/

------------------------------------------------------------

South China Morning Post:

"Hong Kong drivers using new Tesla autopilot software warned they are 'committing an offence'"

"According to figures given to the transport authority, there are a "small number of vehicles" which have downloaded the 7.0 Autopilot update. There are at least 2,000 Tesla vehicles in Hong Kong, but only a limited number of Model S cars are compatible with Autopilot."

Link: http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...8/hong-kong-drivers-using-new-tesla-autopilot

 

[Festerfeet]

Due to the tax breaks given in Hong Kong, the Tesla is a great value car compared to it's (un)natural oily competitors so I can see why it is so popular. If the mainland adopted the same policies Tesla wouldn't be able to build enough cars for the China market.

I would be very wary about using autopilot in HK, there are plenty of express ways in the new territories where it would be a real benefit but the authorities could potentially ask for the data from Tesla at any stage to check usage.

 

[Auzie]

Due to the tax breaks given in Hong Kong, the Tesla is a great value car compared to it's (un)natural oily competitors so I can see why it is so popular. If the mainland adopted the same policies Tesla wouldn't be able to build enough cars for the China market.

I would be very wary about using autopilot in HK, there are plenty of express ways in the new territories where it would be a real benefit but the authorities could potentially ask for the data from Tesla at any stage to check usage.

Festerfeet great to have you here :smile:

I am curious about the bold statement, what sort of data would authorities ask Tesla for? What if Tesla declines to provide such data?