Coast to coast drive happening this year for all FSD Teslas!

[Daniel in SD]

Sure, those are good. Even very good. But the weather is perfect; and all in the day time.
Before lots of people will give up their cars and get in the back seat of robotaxi it has to work all the time.
Many people would give up working in every location -- as long as it works around home for commuting and shopping.
Do you think these are good enough, today or in 2019, to drive in the snow at night over Tioga pass?

Tioga pass is closed in the winter so I don't think any vehicle short of a snowcat could make it . Also detecting and avoiding avalanches is not something that anyone is working on for autonomous vehicles.
I have no idea how well Cruise's vehicles work in the snow or rain. They do most of their testing in San Francisco so I bet they work pretty well in the rain. I've seen video of them driving at night.
Tesla claims that their system will work everywhere and in all weather conditions by the end of next year.
Speaking of driving at night, I found this pretty hilarious: (at 31:27 it seems to strip time links)

 

[diplomat33]

Check out these videos from Cruise.
Two years ago:

Edited but even more challenging:

Fake? Some here would argue that they are because they’re using high resolution maps of the city. The word fake has little meaning when it comes to self driving demos (unless it’s actually a human driving!).

The demos are very impressive actually. So where can I buy one?

 

[Daniel in SD]

The demos are very impressive actually. So where can I buy one?

Cruise just got a round of funding at $19 billion valuation. I'm guessing you can't afford it.

 

[diplomat33]

Cruise just got a round of funding at $19 billion valuation. I'm guessing you can't afford it.

I just want to buy one of the cars, not the whole company.

 

[SVMike]

Tioga pass is closed in the winter so I don't think any vehicle short of a snowcat could make it .

Of course there are other similar places that rarely close in and around Yosemite, Tahoe, etc. But when they plow the road and open it up there are still huge piles of snow in some places. 4-5 years ago I went there in May, the week after the road opened. And then it lightly snowed on my drive to Tuolumne. This year it might not open till late June or July

Tioga and Glacier Point Roads Opening & Closing Dates - Yosemite National Park (U.S. National Park Service)
https://www.nps.gov/yose/learn/nature/tuolumne.htm

 

[Tim Wittwer]

Let me count.... bought FSD in December 2016, so if "everyone" includes me then mine will finally be delivered after waiting .... oh ... only 36+ months!!!!!

I bought FSD in January 2017 based on Tesla's 2016 FSD demo video and eminent coast-to-coast FSD test drive. Fast forward nearly 3 years and Tesla is back with another FSD demo video and another promised coast-to-coast FSD drive. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

 

[willow_hiller]

I bought FSD in January 2017 based on Tesla's 2016 FSD demo video and eminent coast-to-coast FSD test drive. Fast forward nearly 3 years and Tesla is back with another FSD demo video and another promised coast-to-coast FSD drive. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

I'm still very new to the world of Tesla, but from what I've pieced together, Tesla had a bad breakup with Mobileye that set development back a year or two, right? Do you think Tesla would have met those original timelines if they didn't have to start over with an in-house system?

 

[Dutchie]

Check out these videos from Cruise.
Two years ago:

Edited but even more challenging:

Fake? Some here would argue that they are because they’re using high resolution maps of the city. The word fake has little meaning when it comes to self driving demos (unless it’s actually a human driving!).

I call these footages fake. They are just Dashcam footages, no one know who is actually driving the car

 

[Tim Wittwer]

I'm still very new to the world of Tesla, but from what I've pieced together, Tesla had a bad breakup with Mobileye that set development back a year or two, right? Do you think Tesla would have met those original timelines if they didn't have to start over with an in-house system?

The breakup with MobilEye definitely caused a Tesla setback. Reference the multi million dollar class action settlement Tesla made with their AP2.0 buyers (including me). Yet, I don't see MobilEye offering FSD even today. So, FSD technology did not exist in 2016 and probably still does not exist even today. I will be thrilled for Tesla to prove me wrong.

 

[willow_hiller]

The breakup with MobilEye definitely caused a Tesla setback. Reference the multi million dollar class action settlement Tesla made with their AP2.0 buyers (including me). Yet, I don't see MobilEye offering FSD even today. So, FSD technology did not exist in 2016 and probably still does not exist even today. I will be thrilled for Tesla to prove me wrong.

Really good point. Nissan is using them now for their ProPilot, right? There's another thread on here talking about the recent announcement of ProPilot 2, which is hands free in some circumstances.

Part of me wonders if it really takes a smaller company like Tesla to push the boundaries. Maybe if Tesla and MobilEye had continued working together we'd all be sleeping on our commutes by now.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I call these footages fake. They are just Dashcam footages, no one know who is actually driving the car

Exactly, I heard that Tesla had a little person driving their FSD demos from the frunk

 

[willow_hiller]

Where does the burden of proof lie?

Is it "True unless proven false"? "Trust, but verify"? Or "False unless proven true"?

I've got my suspicions about the Super Cruise video because it shows absolutely nothing about the vehicle. No overlays, no glimpse of internal workings. But we also have no proof it's not what they say it is. The reward for faking a video is big in the short term, but consumer trust is hard to rebuild in the long term if you're found to be misleading.

On the Tesla side, the most amazing thing about the Autonomy Day video is the visualisation on the infotainment screen. I wish they had magnified that part, it's really fascinating to watch the visuals while it goes through 90 degree turns. That little glimpse at the internal processing gives me hope that this video is the real deal, and a small sample of what's to come.

 

[Eno Deb]

Where does the burden of proof lie?

Is it "True unless proven false"? "Trust, but verify"? Or "False unless proven true"?

I've got my suspicions about the Super Cruise video because it shows absolutely nothing about the vehicle. No overlays, no glimpse of internal workings. But we also have no proof it's not what they say it is. The reward for faking a video is big in the short term, but consumer trust is hard to rebuild in the long term if you're found to be misleading.

In case of Cruise I can serve as an eye witness. I had the opportunity to ride one of their autonomous Bolts in San Francisco a few months ago. It's very real.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Where does the burden of proof lie?

Is it "True unless proven false"? "Trust, but verify"? Or "False unless proven true"?

I've got my suspicions about the Super Cruise video because it shows absolutely nothing about the vehicle. No overlays, no glimpse of internal workings. But we also have no proof it's not what they say it is. The reward for faking a video is big in the short term, but consumer trust is hard to rebuild in the long term if you're found to be misleading.

On the Tesla side, the most amazing thing about the Autonomy Day video is the visualisation on the infotainment screen. I wish they had magnified that part, it's really fascinating to watch the visuals while it goes through 90 degree turns. That little glimpse at the internal processing gives me hope that this video is the real deal, and a small sample of what's to come.

If you watch the presentation by the Cruise's computer vision lead you can see the pretty visualizations you crave. It could all be a giant scam but if it is it would have to very elaborate since their cars are driving around San Francisco all the time (447k miles last year). Anyway they'd only be ripping off investors, not consumers. They're planning on launching robotaxis before deploying the technology for private vehicles.
Super Cruise is something totally different, it's an ADAS developed by GM and Mobileye.

 

[Daniel in SD]

In case of Cruise I can serve as an eye witness. I had the opportunity to ride one of their autonomous Bolts in San Francisco a few months ago. It's very real.

But did you look in the frunk???

 

[willow_hiller]

In case of Cruise I can serve as an eye witness. I had the opportunity to ride one of their autonomous Bolts in San Francisco a few months ago. It's very real.

I think at this point, there's enough evidence that all of these vehicles drive themselves. Nothing is fake, they're both just different approaches to solving the same problem. And both approaches have their pros and cons.

In the case of Super Cruise, I worry about the sustainability of HD maps. How often do they need to remap streets, and what if they never deem your neighborhood worthy of mapping? Google Street view for my neighborhood is still from 2007 or so.

In the case of Tesla, I think their biggest disadvantage are the disengagements. A neural network works great at adapting to familiar but new information. It does not work great on completely novel information, and is liable to give up in situations like that.

So both Tesla and GM could do a coast to coast today, but both approaches would need very large footnotes to document all the caveats.

 

[Eno Deb]

I think at this point, there's enough evidence that all of these vehicles drive themselves. Nothing is fake, they're both just different approaches to solving the same problem. And both approaches have their pros and cons.

Well, for one Cruise works with any arbitrary address in SF and not just a pre-configured route.

In the case of Super Cruise, I worry about the sustainability of HD maps.

Cruise is not the same as Super Cruise. The latter is a driver assistance system available in some Cadillac models, the former a fully autonomous car (L4). I rode with a safety driver for about 30 minutes and he didn't have to intervene once. That was in busy traffic right in the Mission District with double parked cars, jaywalking pedestrians, the works. Tesla hasn't shown anything so far that is even close.

How often do they need to remap streets, and what if they never deem your neighborhood worthy of mapping? Google Street view for my neighborhood is still from 2007 or so.

Tesla also relies on maps for a number of things.

 

[willow_hiller]

Well, for one Cruise works with any arbitrary address in SF and not just a pre-configured route.
Cruise is not the same as Super Cruise. The latter is a driver assistance system available in some Cadillac models, the former a fully autonomous car (L4). I rode with a safety driver for about 30 minutes and he didn't have to intervene once. That was in busy traffic right in the Mission District with double parked cars, jaywalking pedestrians, the works. Tesla hasn't shown anything so far that is even close.
Tesla also relies on maps for a number of things.

Oh! Well I've learned something new then. I didn't realize there was a Cruise in addition to the Super Cruise. I guess that's what I get from hanging around the Autonomy forum. Is it just SF? You lucky Californians

Also, by mapping, I meant Lidar mapping. I think that would involve having a GM lidar scanning vehicle pre-drive every road where it's needed, right?

 

[Eno Deb]

Oh! Well I've learned something new then. I didn't realize there was a Cruise in addition to the Super Cruise. I guess that's what I get from hanging around the Autonomy forum. Is it just SF? You lucky Californians

They do testing on public roads in SF, Detroit, and Scottsdale.

Also, by mapping, I meant Lidar mapping. I think that would involve having a GM lidar scanning vehicle pre-drive every road where it's needed, right?

I can't say how Cruise acquires its maps, but there are a number of providers of HD mapping data. Some companies are working on self-updating maps that use crowd-sourced data (e.g. Mobileye, HERE, Civil Maps and others).

 

[willow_hiller]

They do testing on public roads in SF, Detroit, and Scottsdale.
I can't say how Cruise acquires its maps, but there are a number of providers of HD mapping data. Some companies are working on self-updating maps that use crowd-sourced data (e.g. Mobileye, HERE, Civil Maps and others).

Yeah fair point. I'm actually really curious how the HD mapping works now. If you've seen that photography trick where you can get a picture of a famous landmark without tourists around it by taking lots of pictures on a tripod and editing them together, that's how I'm imagining it. Like they must do a couple of passes with LIDAR to figure out what's a permanent obstacle and what's temporary. If you didn't do different passes at different times of day, your HD map might think parked cars are permanent fixtures.