Moving this discussion into a new thread.
Here is the data from Cruise. L1 being severe and L4 being small dings etc. So, about 10k miles per "crash" or "error" in FSD terms. Thats about 1 per year of driving - and seems about right. I've to hunt for the original source document - but these are the figures I've in my spreadsheets (along with lots of other data I've gathered).
If we take 150k miles per even small dings - or more than 10 years of driving - that looks just wrong on the face of it. Just look around at all the cars - how many are a few years old and have dings ? Almost all of them. Ask yourself - how many times have you had small/big crashes in the last 10 years ?
"Nationally, 6.1 million miles of driving by a good driver should result in about 40-60 events, most of which are small dings, 22-27 or which would involve an insurance claim, 12 which would get reported to police and 6 injury crashes."
Waymo Data Shows Superhuman Safety Record. They Should Deploy Today
If we count "small accidents" as small dings and insurance claims that comes to 42 out of 6.1M miles. Doing the math, 6.1M divided by 42 gives us 1 per 145k miles.
So small accidents would be around 1 per 145k miles. So I think the 1 per 150k miles is about right.
Here is the data from Cruise. L1 being severe and L4 being small dings etc. So, about 10k miles per "crash" or "error" in FSD terms. Thats about 1 per year of driving - and seems about right. I've to hunt for the original source document - but these are the figures I've in my spreadsheets (along with lots of other data I've gathered).
Code:
Crash Type Miles
L1 282,485
L2+ 99,404
L3+ 20,661
L4+ 9,218
If we take 150k miles per even small dings - or more than 10 years of driving - that looks just wrong on the face of it. Just look around at all the cars - how many are a few years old and have dings ? Almost all of them. Ask yourself - how many times have you had small/big crashes in the last 10 years ?
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