Ab-so-lute-ly. As a colleague once said to me; 'There's no point being the richest guy in the graveyard'.Now this is the right viewpoint. Cars are liabilities, if you seek investment buy a painting.
I've always bought my cars, never considered Lease, PCP or any of the other weird and wonderful ways to take possession of a car.
Cant speak for others but I find I'm totally happy with my car, then suddenly out of the blue the idea to change comes to mind, Something sparks an interest and once that starts all I want is that new idea to become reality.
I know my car is worth a lot less than i paid for it to others, I know if I trade in I will get a lowball offer, I know the trader will wash it, add £5K and move it on, but that's life, its how it all works. Of course i could advertise privately and get a bit more for it but I know the tyre kickers will come to look at it, all expect to be able to test drive and get offended when you ask to see their driving licence and proof they are insured, they inspect the car with a microscope and find a blemish that to them is the focus of their haggle - yet arrive in a beat up POS.
Its therefore the safest and most convenient method to sell and buy your car from a bona fide trader - and that has a value which has to be paid for - it also legally provides you with consumer law protection - something a private sale does not.
The new car I buy pleases me so much It never enters my head to be disappointed on the losses of the old car, I have researched beforehand what Autotrader values are for my car, I conjure up with man maths just how much I can add to that figure then set out to find the newest, the lowest mileage, the best condition, the most comprehensively equipped car of the type I'm after within my budget.
I find I'm unable to look objectively at that new car from the perspective the dealer is making a lot of money, that as soon as i take possession the car devalues by thousands - and when its time to sell it I'm going to loose a shedload on it, All of that is as natural as breathing.
The new car brings a lot of pleasure, a lot of pride, I have one life and I'm going to enjoy it, not lament on what mightn't have been if i did things differently, I have in laws that have saved all their life, live quite miserly, always prepared for that rainy day - but have forgotten what a rainy day is, they live basic, no frills and live a life without (to me) any pleasure, they tolerate issues with their house that would drive me up the wall simply because they wont spend money - yet they have immense wealth.
You can save it or spend it, be happy or be miserable, life is about choice, If I loose a lot of money on a car I simply conclude the value to me over the years of ownership was well worth it - I conclude that because I've never looked back and regretted a purchase decision.
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Crazy settlement figure
- Thread starter Pagemakers
- Start date
Rustybkts
Member
I also agree completely. Purchased my car in early 2020 and its worth around 50% of original value if sold privately or over £5k less to WBAC. Is that worse than a £40k ICE?
Having no interest subsidising their profits and now that I have an M3H ordered, I decided to swap the car with my daughter's Zoe who has craved one for years since I stupidly loaned it to her it a few times.
Hopefully the ULEZ will firm up the affordable 40kWh Zoe value by the time it arrives.
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
But Sir! that' is not a valuation, that's just whether Tesla (specifically) want your type of car (Model, Mileage, Age, Condition, Colour etc.) in stock, at this particular point in time.
I sold a car for 4x what the Dealer (I bought it from) offered me for purchase (not trade in) ... they didn't want it either! or "they didn't want it at that time"
I've realised to my cost too late that the whole 0% BIK thing would annihilate residuals. Since it's unique to EVs, basically any company or company car driver is going to be looking to get them, and because they're all financing the RRP of the car is largely irrelevant. It largely only matters on the secondary market.
I should have probably had a proper think about the ramifications of it much earlier, and looked into what would be involved in doing the same thing (I don't run a company, I'm just a lowly PAYE guy) and especially not buying my car outright. Oh well.
I can't see EV prices and particularly Tesla residuals ever improving, not when Tesla have themselves shown they're prepared to cleave £thousands off the price on a whim, and have decent margins they can still play with.
I should have probably had a proper think about the ramifications of it much earlier, and looked into what would be involved in doing the same thing (I don't run a company, I'm just a lowly PAYE guy) and especially not buying my car outright. Oh well.
I can't see EV prices and particularly Tesla residuals ever improving, not when Tesla have themselves shown they're prepared to cleave £thousands off the price on a whim, and have decent margins they can still play with.
If Tesla was to enable standard CSS V2H with a software upgrade on all Model 3/Y and sell a standard CSS CSS V2H connection box for no more then a hybred inverter then I would have a £1k a year reason to buy a 2nd hand Model 3/Y.
The same useable battery capacity as a home battery would cost me £4k but £2k of home batteries would give be nearly same savings unless I get a heatpump.
Otherwise unless wage grouth is very high, it is clear the price of 2nd hand EVs will keep reducung.
The same useable battery capacity as a home battery would cost me £4k but £2k of home batteries would give be nearly same savings unless I get a heatpump.
Otherwise unless wage grouth is very high, it is clear the price of 2nd hand EVs will keep reducung.
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
Isn't that inevitable? I mean: in the sense that battery price will fall, and coupled with other improvement (motors / Aero increasing range) that will drive the new price down, and thus the 2nd hand price too.
But the price of the replacement, when it comes time to replace in a few years time, will also be down.
So, yeah, depreciation against original price will be horrible, but as percentage of replacement purchase then "less so" (might still be horrible ... sorry! ... just "Less so")
I'm not sure the new price will be driven down. The price of the cars brand new are only vaguely related to the Bill Of Materials, the price is whatever the market is willing to bear. If/when interest rates drop, I suspect Tesla will increase prices again.
It obviously also depends on who they are looking to compete with. There are some cars that are already a decent amount cheaper than Model 3/Ys, but Tesla doesn't feel compelled to compete with them, because they position the brand as being more aspirational.
The "issue", if you want to call it that, is that as far as EVs go especially because of the massive BIK benefit there will be a glut of Highlands that enter the market in 3 years time, which will (in my opinion) have a disproportionate effect on residuals for anyone who hasn't sold their car before that point. Granted company car leasing has a compressive effect anyway, but the company incentives for getting EVs are significant to the point where it doesn't make much sense to get anything else.
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
Indeed. However, if margins increase (because costs fall - e.g. battery reduces price either because costs fall (e.g. economy of scale), or higher capacity cells enable smaller / lighter batteries, thus either more-rang for same weight, or less weight/battery for same range) then a price-reduction war is likely between manufacturers.
Tesla have set price based on having a short lead time (increase price if lead time grows) and when opening a new factory (reduce price, to create "market" for the cars from the new factory).
I think, on balance, that "price-war" will drive the price down as battery cost falls.
I think a lot depends on what we (well .. ."governments") decide to do about climate change
As EVs increase market share, oil consumption falls. Price of oil reduces (supply exceeds demand). So becomes more economical to drive an ICE. But if government want you to switch from ICE to EV they will have to penalise ICE (which will, increasingly, screw the less well off- hanging onto their ICE) - or subsidise EV (but I can't see that lasting).
If we get some cataclysmic event, that persuades everyone lock-stock-and-barrel that we need to do something about Climate Change, then there may well be a knee-jerk reaction, in favour of EVs. e.g. a Carbon Tax (which I think makes the most sense, but seems to be the least popular with Government - I presume because of lobbying from the people who emit the Carbon!)
So that could create a market for the "glut" of ex-lease of EVs
I know it hasn't happened, but my assumption has been that demand for EV will increase, and that will mean that every EV sold 3 years ago (i.e. the population-size that wanted them, back then) will have 1 x X buyers for it (where X represents the (growing) population size for EVs now), and that 2nd hand price would be strong ...
Good job I don't bet on the horses!
If oil supply exceeds demand, it seems more likely that cartels will cut production to maintain the price.
Also, production and distribution costs will become a larger percentage of the per litre price as they will be pretty much fixed, with less litres to spread them across.
Jonnymack74
Member
My 49k model s which went up to about 54k last year is now worth about 30k if I'm lucky
Rooster6655
Active Member
Tesla base many of their trade ins using the pricing of BCA valuations and BCA set the pricing on recently sold vehicles so often in Dec there are less sales and it likely affects the pricing they offer. I'm not sure on how BCA value the software additions, one reason for this large decline might be that Tesla would have resold the car in October but now they are sending it to auction.
There are definitely a few deals to be had on 2 year old cars especially ex lease ones at about 50% off the new price
I believe that the current cars manufactured can't be just software upgraded and would require some hardware modifications, Elon acts like he is surprised that people want the ability when people ask him but I suspect he just wants to sell more power walls
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
Yes, that has definitely been the case in the past. But I wonder ... "We are now at the end of Big Oil Consumption, best we sell all we can and take the money and run" ?
If oil price falls (as consumption declines) that will make it harder to encourage the switch to EV ... so, personally, I hope you are right
The other thing that falling demand is likely to trigger is reduction in new exploration, so that will curtail supply too (but with a lag). Not to mention whether we are already past peak Oil - in which case we've used the "easy" half, some of the remainder will also be easy, but it will get harder. And we are going to use up the 2nd half in double-quick time (however, only IF consumption carries on growing at historical rates).
Historical oil consumption growth has been about 2% per annum, at 2% growth then consumption doubles in 35 years and (with continuous growth) in the next 35 years we will use as much as we have used historically - so if we are at Peak Oil its 35 years until all gone - assuming we can get all the difficult stuff out of the ground, ad we don't find any more (but if we found a reserve equivalent to twice as much oil as we have ever used, that will only give us another 35 years - hard to imagine we would find "as much again"
For sanity check: WorldOmeter Oil says we will run out in 2063 - 39 years
If it is 35 years I'm going to need a reasonable improvement in longevity
but its sooner than most folk will be expecting (normal for Humans to have difficulty visualising Exponential growth).I think the more likely path is "snowball" where the whole EV things gains massive traction. All we are seeing at present in spanners-in-the-works. PM extending the deadline for ICE-phase out, granting licenses for oil exploration in North Sea - all desperate re-election shenanigans ... I think likely that people will decide they have to sort out Climate Change, even if government doesn't.
But ... that all supposes that we will switch to EVs at a decent rate. If we do then oil consumption will fall (and thus more time to deplete reserves). If oil price drops that may scupper the migration to EV (although I still think that EV battery prices will fall, range will increase, and everyone with off road parking, at least, will favour EV over ICE - and also all commercial transport - if I take Musk at face-value (risky!) on Tesla EV "Semi" juggernauts then that will provide huge money savings for operators (and buses too)
The other pivot point, for me, will be when my EV can power my home, or make me money exporting to grid when export-price is high. That's will also be a tough gig for people without off-road parking. Maybe the price of houses with no parking will fall like a stone ... so if you've got one of them SELL NOW!!
I’ve done PCP contracts all my life. Thinking I may move to Personal Contract Hire for the purchase I’m about to make.
No intention of keeping the car at the end of the period and it’s cheaper.
No intention of keeping the car at the end of the period and it’s cheaper.
This is meaningless; as the only change was to allow a few pure ICE rather then forcing 100% plug in hybreds for the small number of none pure EVs that the ZEV credits will allow to be sold by then. Too many people believed they would need to pay a daily fine if they kept their existing ICE, so sensible to remove the misunderstood rule.
ACarneiro
Active Member
Where on earth would anyone possibly have gotten that idea from? Seriously, fines were never mentioned. Is this The Daily Fail stoking hysteria or something?
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It was reported in the same newspapers as people getting fined for driving old cars in London etc with easy to misunderstood headlines, and spread via socal media etc.
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