Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

@Papafox, Thanks! I kept staring at the chart wondering why the volume looked so low, then I saw the huge spike which changed the scaling on the chart! Glad you posted the volume numbers with the conditions.

I get the volume from a phone app of mine. The "NLS volume" on the chart is always quite a bit lower than the real volume

The spike on the last 5/17 chart really compressed the rest of the day's trading. I wish I had a $230 sale order in during after hours that day!

 

[Papafox]

Welcome back to the volatile world of TSLA

Conditions:
* DOW initially up but closed down 8
* NASDAQ initially up but closed down 3
* Volume 5.1M
* Some negative press about UAW eyeing Tesla for unionization

After hours:
* Some large trades (89,000 shares, etc.) showed on graph after hours but likely took place during normal hours instead. Unless two parties agreed to sell and buy shares at a specific price after hours, the size of transactions would not have gone through at these prices
* One seller didn't put in a limit and sold 100 shares at $210.00 after hours

 

[Papafox]

Conditions:
* DOW up 1.2%
* NASDAQ up 2%
* TSLA up .78% in regular trading hours

Recently, we've seen TSLA trading with low correlation to the broader markets. On a big up day for the broader markets, traders are apparently favoring companies with a more direct influence by broader market movements. TSLA is establishing itself with a SP in the vicinity of the most recent equity raise and waiting for news of substance.

 

[dakh]

Thanks a lot for posting these Papafox! Quite educational.

 

[Papafox]

Today was a very revealing day of trading

Conditions:
* DOW up 145 (.82%)
* NASDAQ up 33 (.70%)
* TSLA up 1.67 (.77%)
* TSLA Volume: 3.1M

I have seen days when the bulls and bears are having a tug-of-war, but instead I think we had shorts trying to do damage control with TSLA today to keep it from running higher than desired. Take a look at 11:08am when the price spiked above $220 on 22,000 shares bought that minute and instead of a continuation of the climb for a spell we instead saw a quick drop back down. Now look at the after hours trading and notice that whenever TSLA traded higher it was pulled right back down again. For example, look at the 6pm trade as TSLA went higher and then immediately went to an after-hours low before recovering. Methinks the shorts are at play here. My understanding is that short interest is up over the past period, which bodes well for SP appreciation potential in the months ahead.

Also, notice there's a dip right around opening bell today and yesterday. It could just be market dynamics, but it could also be an attempt by shorts to excite some fear in the investors through a quick sale at an influential time.

 

[Papafox]

This is what a day looks like when the shorts aren't playing too many games and the longs are feeling bullish. Notice how less "spiky" the trading was today, compared with the previous 2 days. The catalyst for today's climb may have been the over-subscription of shares sold in Tesla's recent share sale. Such a positive response pours water on the short thesis that Tesla will run out of money before Model 3 is in volume production.

Conditions:
* DOW down 0.13%
* NASDAQ up 0.14%
* TSLA up 2.52% (5.54)
* Volume 4M shares

Notes: Anticipating an up day, I awoke at 3:30am Hawaii time to be ready to buy. Each of the previous up days included at least one crossing down into the red, and I waited for it. Dang if the sellers of the calls I wanted wouldn't sell at an attractive price during the dip, though! I eventually found another call worth buying, but by then TSLA had already increased some in value. Oh well, at least I'll give myself credit for trying to buy at the right time.

Notice the strong support for the higher SP in after hours trading.

 

[Papafox]

I post the May 26 full after-hours trading here to illustrate a point. We see none of the volatility in aftermarket trading that we saw in the previous two days of after-hours, just a slow climb upwards. There's no guarantees about tomorrow, but bearish behavior is almost totally lacking in today's trading, and that's a good thing for the bulls.

 

[GoTslaGo]

@Papafox, Thanks again!

Just double checking, the NLS volume is 2.4M today, as it was yesterday. Since you posted yesterday's volume was around 4M, that means today's was around 4M too. Is that correct? (Avg=5M).

Edit:

Forget it! I just read the charts wrong! 4M today it is!

 

[TMSE]

Hello chart experts,

I am a novice in charting. I think I am seeing inverse head-and-shoulder patter in the 1-yr chart, with the neck line slanting upwards. Any comments? Thanks.

 

[Papafox]

View attachment 178370 Hello chart experts,

I am a novice in charting. I think I am seeing inverse head-and-shoulder patter in the 1-yr chart, with the neck line slanting upwards. Any comments? Thanks.

Hi TMSE and welcome to the forum!
We have one thread in the Tesla investor section called "TSLA Technical Analysis", and there are some bright people there who would be glad to comment on your interpretation. Please repost your comments and chart over there. Here's a link: TSLA Technical Analysis

My thread is mostly about recording daily fluctuations of TSLA and trying to draw some conclusions by looking at the daily trading under a microscope. It is based more upon familiarity with this stock than upon any formal method of evaluation.

 

[TMSE]

Hi TMSE and welcome to the forum!
We have one thread in the Tesla investor section called "TSLA Technical Analysis", and there are some bright people there who would be glad to comment on your interpretation. Please repost your comments and chart over there. Here's a link: TSLA Technical Analysis

My thread is mostly about recording daily fluctuations of TSLA and trying to draw some conclusions by looking at the daily trading under a microscope. It is based more upon familiarity with this stock than upon any formal method of evaluation.

Thanks Papafox.

 

[sunhelm]

View attachment 178370 Hello chart experts,

I am a novice in charting. I think I am seeing inverse head-and-shoulder patter in the 1-yr chart, with the neck line slanting upwards. Any comments? Thanks.

I'd say Kilroy was present during these times.

Kilroy was here - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[TMSE]

I'd say Kilroy was present during these times.

Kilroy was here - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Haha funny

 

[Papafox]

I'd say Kilroy was present during these times.

Kilroy was here - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Of course I had to have some fun with this concept over in the short-term trading thread. Nice eye, sunhelm.

 

[Papafox]

During the past two weeks, the days when TSLA carried the most positive momentum into the close was on May 19, 20, and 26. Each of these positive days was met by a response from the bears/shorts. On May 20, we saw a moderate dip in pre-trading hours, but the market was too eager to pull TSLA up and shrugged it off. On May 23, the Monday after the May 20 trading, TSLA dipped into the red right after opening and lost $4.58. Then on May 27, the day after the stellar May 26 climb, TSLA dipped nearly $4 before recovering close to half that amount.

Interpretation: The shorts are a huge part of the trading environment for TSLA these days, and on days when the shorts are fearful that longs will string two really good up days in a row, there appears to be a conscious effort to stop that progress through short selling at critical times. The negative for the shorts is that they end up holding even more TSLA and the eventual squeeze will be all that more robust. When good news comes, there will be no holding this stock back. Shorts can merely slow down the inevitable until the news cycle turns positive again.

Conditions:
* Dow up 44 (0.25%)
* Nasdaq up 31 (0.65%)
* TSLA down 2.08 (0.92%)
* TSLA volume 3.6M

Seriously, take a look at the sharp downward spikes visible on this trading day following a really positive day when the broader markets are well in the green and there's little news of consequence. The question is: can we expect a similar response from the shorts after our next day of positive trading when TSLA carries substantial upward momentum into the close? What piece of information is needed to get the shorts to stop playing games and head for the exits?

 

[WarpedOne]

One word: dividends

 

[Papafox]

What we saw today looked to my eye like a serious attempt of the shorts at keeping TSLA from closing higher. The day began with a typical green in the amateur hour following a three-day weekend. Look at the sharpness of the downward stabs into the red, though. Fairly large sales would pull the SP down, then buying would bring TSLA back up into the green, only to be thrust back down with another selling spree, again and again. This is the bull vs. bear tug-of-war.

Conditions:
* Dow down 86
* NASDAQ up 14
* TSLA up 0.19 (only at the bell)
* Volume: 2.8M

As a special treat while we were waiting for the annual meeting to begin, someone managed to pay $236/share for a hundred shares after hours. Rats, I was so in anticipation of the meeting that I forgot to place a high sell order in today. Double-rats!

As you can see, the annual meeting didn't have much effect upon SP. Some positive things were mentioned about the gigafactory future production and the future of TE, though. Elon Musk is now focused on factory efficiency, seeing it as a fertile field for disruption, and so good things lay in store for investors in the long run when those inefficiencies come to fruition. The bears will perhaps look at the new referral program as a flag for a demand issue, and so tomorrow's trading is uncertain.

 

[Papafox]

Conditions:
* DOW up 2
* NASDAQ up 4
* TSLA down 3.67
* TSLA Volume: 3M

Today was a typical down day for TSLA in the patterns we've been seeing for the past few weeks. Don't believe me? Check out the twins.

Here's May 27. Notice that all the major components of today's dip are present in the May27 dip.

Notice that we see the trading action contain a follow-through on the secondary dip. That follow-through was not present on some dips that occurred earlier in May. Notice the dip sees a preliminary dip, bottoms out before noon, sees a recovery high about 1:00pm, and then goes into a secondary dip about 2:00pm.

I suppose a day trader can take advantage of some of these repeating patterns but that is not the reason I publish this comparison. Rather, it is to suggest that there is some manipulation by short sellers to maximize the effect of their selling upon the closing SP of TSLA. These patterns aren't news driven, they haven't been common to TSLA over the long run, they are a recent occurrences.

 

[Papafox]

Interesting day. We saw classic long vs short tug-of-war during the first hour and then after noon the SP started a nice climb back towards the green. I commented on the short-term trading thread that we ought to watch as see if the shorts play "whack a mole" by pushing the SP back into the red after it breaks into the green. Sure enough, we saw four whack a mole maneuvers before some long felt defeated and sold enough stock to get TSLA destined to close in the red today. Minutes after closing, a new analyst began covering TSLA with a $300 PT, and TSLA jumped back into the green after hours.

The good news? I saw today's trading as indicative of a desire by the market to bring TSLA higher but it being temporarily restrained by the "whack a mole" manipulations. I bought 2 calls in the final minutes of trading, right before the stock jumped up to $220+.

 

[Johan]

@Papafox, you're getting to know this stock as intimately as mama fox.