Delivery date question

[NormVA]

I get your point. I think we need a bit more data before we can conclude anything. Bloomberg said that VINS are not perfectly sequential and we can only see a couple recent issues. If this goes on for the rest of the week, it should get faster and faster.

My order number for my 10/1 order was 630140 (I couldn't pick it up and lost it). I reordered on 10/11 and the order number was 652515 - or 22,000 orders later (in 11 days!). 11 days later (now), we are about 20,000 order numbers higher than my 10/11 order. That means to day, Tesla has taken 40,000 orders in October alone!

Lets assume that (20%) are S's and X's. That means 32,000 orders. We can safely assume about 20,000 orders unfulfilled in the US from September. That's 52,000 Model 3's to date, albeit some are foreign orders.

If ... Fremont is finally switching over to N. American cars now - they can make enough cars to cover what's been ordered to date - plus another 25,000 cars that will be ordered by the end of October (10 days at about 2500 a day). Total of September and October unfulfilled are about 80,000 cars. Adjust that to 65,000 USA cars.

So IF production changed over today - it is likely that anything from Nov. 1 on will not be fulfilled (or be a toss-up depending on cancellations - and my numbers are crude at best). Then again, that's what people have been suspecting. It kind of fits with "6-10 weeks for delivery after order."

So yes, I want to believe that production is finally switching over. If not, a lot of N. American customers will be SOL. But, again we are really speculating now. Then again, speculation is better than listening to the BS of a Tesla sales advisor.

I have a factory tour scheduled for Thursday, 24 Oct. Maybe I will be able to find out if they are producing cars for the US.

 

[dandrewk]

Look for steering wheels mounted on the "wrong" side. That's a big clue.

 

[jonquiljo]

I have a factory tour scheduled for Thursday, 24 Oct. Maybe I will be able to find out if they are producing cars for the US.

Good idea. Wrong side steering wheels is a big one. If you can see the finished assemblies, the size and shape of the license place assy will be a big give away.

If what people are saying about VIN numbers is right, they may be making cars for the US anyway. I assume Tesla makes them to all US state specs, so they may be a bit different that European models.

We'll be waiting to hear what you have to post! Thanks!

 

[bangtan]

I have a factory tour scheduled for Thursday, 24 Oct. Maybe I will be able to find out if they are producing cars for the US.

Good luck soldier. Find us those North American Model 3's!

 

[markli]

I just noticed that “upload your own insurance” disappeared too. Strange! Why did they bother removing it?

My car still says 2 weeks - but I know better, though all these different SA’s giving very different delivery estimates kind of shows that Tesla employees don’t really know what’s going on.

Update Oct 22
My "Upload your own insurance" option is back, and my order agreement PDF is back and still no VIN

 

[waynes]

congrats --

can you share what you had ordered .. wondering what batch got made.

Here is my order: 465082
Long Range All-Wheel Drive
Red Multi-Coat Paint
19’’ Sport Wheels
All Black Premium Interior
Autopilot

 

[Luso7]

Update: I was emailed by the Operations Advisor that my Model 3 would be here on Oct 29. I have the VIN which shows its a model year 2020. This is awesome!

what did you order? When did you receive the vin? Where are you located? I just got a second vin yesterday that is 2020 and I’m trying To gauge how long I can expect to wait

edit - someone beat me to it. Maybe just add what state you are in

I got a vin yesterday that is 2020. My rep showed me their internal computer and it was finished manufacturing yesterday. So it’s leaving the factory soon

 

[m3-ricardo]

he's in TN

 

[m3-ricardo]

Your order went in the day before mine (i ordered Oct 16) .. but the order #'s are almsot 20k apart.