My assumption is that they are making new VINs for N/A. Reasons below:
1) Bloomberg last VINs through sept was 536,000
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
2) New VINs that showed up today were 536,00+
Teslike Model 3 Survey #2
I get your point. I think we need a bit more data before we can conclude anything. Bloomberg said that VINS are not perfectly sequential and we can only see a couple recent issues. If this goes on for the rest of the week, it should get faster and faster.
My order number for my 10/1 order was 630140 (I couldn't pick it up and lost it). I reordered on 10/11 and the order number was 652515 - or 22,000 orders later (in 11 days!). 11 days later (now), we are about 20,000 order numbers higher than my 10/11 order. That means to day, Tesla has taken 40,000 orders in October alone!
Lets assume that (20%) are S's and X's. That means 32,000 orders. We can safely assume about 20,000 orders unfulfilled in the US from September. That's 52,000 Model 3's to date, albeit some are foreign orders.
If ... Fremont is finally switching over to N. American cars now - they can make enough cars to cover what's been ordered to date - plus another 25,000 cars that will be ordered by the end of October (10 days at about 2500 a day). Total of September and October unfulfilled are about 80,000 cars.
Adjust that to 65,000 USA cars.
So IF production changed over today - it is likely that anything from Nov. 1 on will not be fulfilled (or be a toss-up depending on cancellations - and my numbers are crude at best). Then again, that's what people have been suspecting. It kind of fits with "6-10 weeks for delivery after order."
So yes, I want to believe that production is finally switching over. If not, a lot of N. American customers will be SOL. But, again we are really speculating now. Then again, speculation is better than listening to the BS of a Tesla sales advisor.